Thanks for posting the info, but I'm afraid that I wasn't really able to parse it. at least not on a first pass. I'll be content to see the Excel stuff sometime later. With nearly ten years of player movement history, we should really put our heads together and think what kinds of interesting things to pull out. Cheers.
If anyone wants my full 4 MB file, my email can probably handle sending it. Its a first draft for most teams, CHI & DC have a second draft finished and were double checked using LEXIS. The A-League callups have been the most challenging to keep track of. "future considerations" and "conditional draft picks" have given me some problems. I might be taking a break for a while to work on some NBA info. They're much more transparent and their salary cap rules give more structure and limitations on player movement. Got kind of burned out trying to make sense of MLS contracts! If anyone knows of some good official sources off of LEXIS or web.archive.org that I'm missing, the info would be much appreciated. Private message me if anyone wants a look at the excel file.
With Alan Gordon joining the Galaxy soon, 9 of the bottom 16 draftees will be on MLS rosters ... and as recently as last year, some teams weren't even using these picks.
(chart at bottom) Well, numerista was right, the 2004 class didn't live up to my lofty expectations, although they didn't do much worse than the classes of 2002 or 2003 rookie seasons, either. This year, we saw 44.2% of all available minutes played by players who have been drafted in one of the last 5 Superdrafts, up from, which is actually slightly down proportionally from last year. The biggest improvement this year, as has happened every year, was the sophomore class of 2003, which saw a whole bunch of players getting more minutes, with Brian Carroll, Eddie Gaven, Matt Crawford, Jack Jewsbury, and Nate Jaqua seeing the biggest increases. The slight improvement in the 2002 class was driven almost entirely by 3 developmental players - Marshall Leonard, Chris Leitch, and Davy Arnaud. The only players still on MLS rosters who aren't getting significant minutes from this draft are Jordan Stone, Craig Capano, and Dipsy Selolwane (plus an injured Chris Roner). The 2001 class, with contracts coming up, has likely peaked. Presumably we'll see a few players (Ryan Nelsen? Ryan Suarez? Duncan Oughton?) looking overseas for a better contract. While there are a few players who might still fill in for these losses, Chris Carrieri, Mark Lisi, Eddie Robinson, Santino Quaranta, (Devin Barclay), this is probably it. The 2000 class was hit hard by three departures - Carlos Bocanegra, Bobby Convey, and Chivas Martinez, and three injuries to Danny Califf, Rusty Pierce, and Adin Brown. Apart from that, several players had difficulty just keeping their starting jobs - Wes Hart, Stephen Armstrong, Eric Denton, Peter Vagenas, Nick Rimando, Orlando Perez, Ian Russell. With the only clear starters from this group being Nick Garcia, Sasha Victorine, Kerry Zavagnin, and John Wolyniec, I think we can expect more decline next year. Code: Percentage of total minutes played Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Class 2000 9.4 10.8 11.4 10.5 6.8 2001 0.3 8.2 9.1 10.6 10.9 2002 0.0 0.0 6.0 8.4 9.3 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 10.5 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
Is it possible to look at guys who got more minutes because they improved, or who got more minutes because of thin rosters and national team duty and stuff like that? Might not be easy to do or worthwhile. I just figure there are some times when guys are pressed into service and it doesn't necessarily mean they've gotten better, it's just that MLS rosters are tissue-thin.
Well, I can't think of a systematic way of doing it, unless you've got a suggestion. Someone could go through the lineups game-by-game, but unless you've got a strong prediction, it seems like a lot of work for no distinct reason. Obviously why various players get minutes is the product of a bunch of factors - was Brian Carroll playing because he improved, or because his coach was willing to give him a chance? Henry Ring got a ton of minutes because Zach Thornton happened to leave. Stephen Herdsman got more minutes just by coming out of retirement. It seems very very rare to me that (without reserve teams) a player wins a spot simply be improvement - some other impetus is almost always needed. I think the hope is that all of these random events balance out and we get a measure that's approximately equal to ability (plus environmental factors), but my point in doing this is really more to see how MLS is constituted (what parts, how they change, etc.) than to measure individual ability.
Great stuff, Chris ... back in post #10 of this thread, you made a more-or-less principled projection of what 2004 rookie minutes would look like by round. If you get the chance, I'd be very interested in see a comparison between projection and reality. I also think it's worth resuscitating a point that you made earlier: the class of 2004 was heavily picked over in earlier years. Eight of its juniors (or was it nine?) were drafted in 2003, along with a sophomore (Brad Davis) in 2002 and Convey in 2000. IIRC, if Burciaga and Buddle had followed the college track, they might've been part of this class, too. Because so many high-profile players left early, it may not be too surprising that the second and third rounds were a little short on depth. What is (pleasantly) surprising is how many diamonds were found in the rough.
Line 1 - projected minutes; line 2- actual minutes; line 3 - projected minutes as a percentage of total projected; line 4- actual minutes as a percentage of total actual; line 5 - % difference Code: Proj. Actual % P. % A. Diff. 1 10903 9829 0.49 0.51 0.02 2 5542 2865 0.25 0.15 -0.10 3 3075 338 0.14 0.02 -0.12 4 1452 2592 0.07 0.13 0.07 5 834 547 0.04 0.03 -0.01 6 466 3197 0.02 0.17 0.14 Tot 22272 19368 1.00 1.00 0.00 Basically, I was way off everywhere. The first round is probably the most consistent, because most of the players are going to stick, and therefore play, and we actually see some relatively large numbers. The last three rounds are crapshoots - but for Jeff Parke, the latter half would have looked a lot more reasonable, but there's nothing you can do. As for the depth in the second and third rounds, I think you're underrating the overseas attrition effect we saw this year - last year, only one player in the first half of the draft, Dimelon Westfield, chose to look for a job overseas rather than play in MLS. This year, we saw three - Adolfo Gregorio, Jeremiah White, and Olivier Occean, at least one of which (Occean) would have likely played a good deal.
That's possible, but if you look at the 2001 and 2002 drafts (e.g. post 27 of this thread ), you won't see much difference. Remember also that teams generally have advance knowledge about who's looking overseas. (Occean is an exception, but as a foreign player is also more likely to play for peanuts in MLS.) If high picks are spent on White and Gregorio, this suggests that good stay-at-home alternatives were unavailable. Incidentally, even without Parke, round 6 players played 788 minutes, which in absolute terms is far above the 466 expected.
Thought it might be interesting to track the impact of Project-40's and other early entries on future drafts ... for each upcoming year, I list the players who would've entered the draft that year if, instead of joining MLS, they had progressed naturally through college. Relative to past drafts, the 2005 class is definitely quite heavily affected. Most years, there haven't been 11 P-40's coming into the league. 2005 (11) D. Barclay R. Clark R. Cochrane S. Cronin C. Dempsey J. Gardner C. Goodson N. Grabavoy E. Johnson S. Quaranta M. Saavedra 2006 (4) C. Capano J. Mapp C. Marshall J. Stone 2007 (5) A. Alvarez E. Gaven G. González M. Magee R. Nuñez 2008 (3) F. Adu I M. Bradley D. Szetela
What a difference expansion makes. This year: Starters (7): Brad Guzan, Aaron Lopez, Bobby Boswell, Hunter Freeman, Guy Melamed, Danny O'rourke, Michael Parkhurst Subs (9): Luke Kreamalmeyer, Knox Cameron, Domenic Mediate, Ryan Kelly, Mubarike Chisoni, Scott Sealy, Chad Barrett, Chris Rolfe, James Riley Plus MLS debuts for Michael Bradley, David Wagenfuhr, and Clyde Simms.
You ain't lying. Bobby Boswell had no business being a starter. He looked pretty good yesterday, but Ezra Hendrickson would definately be starting over Boswell if he was still playing with DC.
An interesting point, mellon - how many of these players were directly impacted by expansion? Brad Guzan - plays for expansion team Aaron Lopez - plays for expansion team Bobby Boswell - Ezra Hendrickson Hunter Freeman - de la Torre, Jeff Stewart Guy Melamed - de la Torre, Jeff Stewart Danny O'rourke - nothing Michael Parkhurst - Rusty Pierce, (Brian Kamler) Luke Kreamalmeyer - plays for expansion team Knox Cameron - marginal (Erick Scott) Domenic Mediate - nothing Ryan Kelly - Nelson Akwari Mubarike Chisoni - Arturo Torres Scott Sealy - Matt Taylor Chris Rolfe - Dipsy Selolwane (trade) Chad Barrett - Dipsy Selolwane (trade) James Riley - Pierce, Kamler So, by that count, at least 11 of the 16 rookies who played yesterday benefited from the expansion. If I didn't make my position clear earlier, I think this is great - Bobby Boswell may not have been great on Saturday, but he's likely got a far more productive MLS career ahead of him than EZ does at present, and the same thing goes for most of these players and their respective expansion casualties.
Freeman would start anyways. Maybe not if Crawford was healthy recently. But de la Torre sucks (now in USL) and Stewart is still hurt. One of Rolfe/Barrett probably wouldv'e got minutes. The u20 time away is actually hurting the chances of some guys getting playing time. It amazes me teas went through 80 draft picks and noone grabs Boswell and now he starts for the defending champs? I was just about to stop by here and post this (I can never get Excel to paste good here) Code: Name Team Status Drafted by: Round 1 Besagno, Nikolas RSL adidGEN RSL Guzan, Brad CDC adidGEN CDC Barrett, Chad CHI adidGEN CHI O'Rourke, Danny SJ SNR SJ (f DAL) Ihemelu, Ugochukweu LA SNR LA (f SJ) Moor, Drew DAL adidGEN DAL (f MET t LA t SJ) Freeman, Hunter COL adidGEN COL Roberts, Troy LA SNR LA (f CLB) Parkhurst, Michael NE adidGEN NE Stewart, Jack CHI SNR CHI (f LA) Sealy, Scott KC SNR/YI KC Ward, Tim MET adidGEN MET (f DC t MET t DAL) Round 2 Watson, Jamie RSL adidGEN RSL Jimenez,Christian CDC adidGEN CDC Enfield, Michael LA SNR LA (f CHI t DAL t KC) Pore, Ryan KC adidGEN KC (f DAL t COL) Goldthwaite, Kevin SJ DEV SJ John, Will CHI adidGEN CHI (f MET) Van Sicklen, Nick DC SNR DC (f COL) Storey, Marcus CLB DEV CLB (f CLB t COL) Riley, James NE SNR NE Nolly, Jay RSL DEV RSL (f LA) Mediate, Domenic CLB DEV CLB (f KC) Sawyer, Christopher didn't report? (finishing school/?soccer anymore) KC (f DC) Round 3 Corcoran, Chris MET DEV MET (f RSL t CHI t DC) Lopez, Aaron CDC SNR CDC Marshall, Winston didn't report? (finishing school/? MLS future-Canadian) DAL (f CHI) Gomez, Chris DAL DEV DAL Rolfe, Chris CHI DEV CHI (f SJ t DAL) Arbelaez, Victor CDC DEV SJ (f MET) Ramirez, Orlando SJ DEV SJ (f COL) Klaas, Craig (CJ) Seattle;USL1(also finishing school UW) SJ (f CLB) Lochead, Tony trialing Belgium? (? injured now) NE (f NE t KC t COL) Kirk, Quavas LA adidGEN LA Segares, Gonzalo CHI DEV/YI CHI (f KC) Khumalo, Thabiso (Boyzzz) Charleston;USL1(? signed, was in CHI camp and cut) CHI (f DC t KC t COL) Round 4 Kreamalmeyer, Luke RSL SNR RSL Arias, Estaban CDC DEV CDC Deitz, Karim returned to school (? playing college soccer again, didn't report) CHI Nash, Julian SJ DEV DAL Jallow, Antouman signed in Sweden (was in SJ camp, wouldv'e been signed DEV at least) SJ (f SJ t COL) Twellman, James SJ DEV SJ (f MET) Melamed, Guy COL SNR/SI COL Cameron, Knox CLB DEV CLB Lowery, Amir COL DEV COL (f NE) Chisoni, Mubarike LA DEV/YI LA Minagawa-Webster, John KC DEV KC Merritt, Tim DC DEV DC (f DC t SJ) current destination for super draft picks. Almost none this year cut from MLS to USL (as opposed to most years). Expanded rosters behind this (a little bit expansion too). Only YI Khumalo came to camp and didn't get offered a MLS deal somewhere as far as I can tell.
here are the supplemental picks Code: Rhyne, Steven cut by RSL, ? drafted Atl, USL1 RSL Barragan, Javier CDC DEV CDC Cook, Justin not signed by CHI (in camp) CHI Wilson, Kevin not signed by DAL & SJ (in camp) DAL (f DAL t DC) Rodriguez, Brett SJ DEV SJ Hernandez, Jason MET DEV MET Gotsmanov, Sasha not signed by COL (in camp) COL Oliver, Matt finishing school CLB Gaudette, Bill CLB DEV CLB (f NE) Benditson, Benjamin LA DEV LA Ruiz, Edwin cut by KC (in camp, would be SNR) KC Nickell, Matthew DC DEV DC Lookingland, Michael RSL DEV RSL Matute, Helmis trialing in Iceland? CDC Mahoney, David CHI DEV CHI Thompson, Abe DAL DEV DAL Holmes, Jamie NE DEV NE (f SJ) Fulton, Robby SJ DEV SJ (f MET) McCarthy, Drew Puerto Rico; USL1 (? never in LA camp) LA (f COL) Vasquez, Eric CLB DEV CLB Latham, Ryan NE DEV NE Kovar, Matt not signed (? in camp or not) LA Pitchkolan, Aaron DAL DEV DAL (f KC) Cavanagh, Drew Charleston;USL1 (declined DAL-DEV) DAL (f DC) Palmer, Noah RSL DEV RSL Munoz, Mike CDC DEV CDC Karcz, Chris not signed by COL (in camp) CHI Schwarze, Chris cut by DAL (in camp) DAL Merl, Noah not signed by SJ (was in camp but injured) SJ Hannigan, Pat not signed (think was in camp?) MET Sepuya, Eugene COL DEV/YI COL Kelly, Ryan CLB DEV CLB Wilson, Easton NE DEV NE Shaw, Ryan not signed (? in camp or not) LA Lascody, Doug KC DEV KC Terris, Andrew DC DEV DC Knowles, Cameron RSL DEV/YI RSL Kennedy, Dan MET DEV (at least I think so per MLSNET roster) CDC Donaldson, Hollis Ryan CHI DEV CHI Tamporello, Sammy cut by DAL (in camp) DAL Wondolowski,Chris SJ DEV SJ Vazquez, Usiel signed with Charleston? (was in MET camp) MET Gargan, Dan COL DEV COL Lee, Chris finishing school CLB Larentowicz, Jeff NE DEV NE Gallegos, Jeremiah not signed (? in camp or not) LA Caugherty, Ryan signed in Denmarks 2nd division (don't think was in camp) KC Kuykendall, Shawn DC DEV DC
here's the guys in the draft pool, undrafted, that signed with MLS Boswell, Bobby (DC DEV) Dobson, Daniel (KC DEV) McGinnis, Pat (KC DEV - unconfirmed, but on MLSNET roster) Raybould, Ryan (KC DEV) Romaneiro, Marcos (NE DEV/YI) Terris above was a MLS pool GK last year. Barragan finished school after the 2003 season and I think was in PDL. Eric Vasquez didn't return to school though not finished with 4 years in 2004. Milton Blanco (Chivas DEV) was in NAIA and didn't go through the draft process. Will Johnson (CHI DEV/GC) was a discovery out of high school? Ramon Bailey (MET DEV/GC) also a discovery out of community college Mario Torres 9Dallas DEV/?dual citizen) was a discovery out of the local Hispanic leagues. I think that about covers all the amateur players joining MLS so far this year right out of school. I think the # this year is much higher than any previous year. Kenny Cutler (RSL DEV) was in the 04 draft pool, went undrafted and trained with the Rapids. I think Kevin Novak (RSL DEV) should have been in the 2004 draft pool but was injured (don't think he has pro experience). Josh Elbaum (COL DEV comes out of MISL). Michael Cardenas (COL DEV) played in the Czech Repulbic and USL2. Sergio Flores (RSL DEV) played in South America.
Updating ... 2005 (11) D. Barclay R. Clark R. Cochrane S. Cronin C. Dempsey J. Gardner C. Goodson N. Grabavoy E. Johnson S. Quaranta M. Saavedra 2006 (8) C. Capano H. Freeman J. Mapp D. Moor C. Marshall M. Parkhurst R. Pore J. Stone 2007 (15) A. Alvarez C. Barrett E. Gaven G. González B. Guzan P. Ianni W. John S. Kljestan M. Magee R. Nuñez J. Peterson W. Simms J. Watson J. Zayner B. Feilhaber (Europe) 2008 (9) F. Adu M. Bradley C. Jimenez K. Kamara D. McCarty N. Sturgis D. Szetela T. Ward M. Wynne 2009 (2) N. Besagno L. Nguyen (Europe) 2010 (4?) J. Altidore (finishing HS this year?) Q. Kirk (stayed in HS through fall, iirc) B. Wagner P. Zimmerman (Europe)
Above are the 2005 rookies who appeared on opening day. Relative to prior years, the number is unusually high -- In 2004, there were only 2 starters and 4 subs; in 2003, 7 starters and 3 subs; in 2002, 2 starters and 4 subs (names are listed near the start of this thread). This year, the opening day rookie presence is strong again ... the lingering effect of expansion is probably playing a role, but I suspect that good young talent is a factor, too. Starters (9): Marvell Wynne, Mehdi Ballouchy, Sacha Kljestan, Kei Kamara, Nathan Sturgis, Brandon Moss, Matt Groenwald, Jonathan Bornstein, Lawson Vaughn Subs (6): Jason Garey, Calen Carr, Ryan Johnson, Kyle Brown, Drew Helm, Floyd Franks
Opening Day Rookies Starters/Subs Year STARTER NAMES; Sub Names 3/4 1996 McKEON, RALSTON, SILVERA; Ed.Lewis, D.Gutierrez, Cozier, M.Joseph 3/3 1997 A.LEWIS, PARRA, DUHANEY(?); Jolley, T.Suarez, S.Klein 5/3 1998 CULLEN, KOTSCHAU, J.TORRES, TALLEY, J.KELLER; Mathis, B.Olsen, Franchino 3/3 1999 ROCHA, Jam.CLARK, S.BOWER; Mulrooney, Broome, Aldrich 6/5 2000 SHAK, A.BROWN, R.PIERCE, Jus.EVANS, KEY, DiMARIA; A.Woods, Convey, Kovalenko, Schell, Korol 2/2 2001 CURTIS, HERDSMAN; Buddle, D.Barclay (VACA?) 2/4 2002 JEF.STEWART, S.FORKO; Twellman, K.Gray, Martino, Glinton 7/3 2003 R.CLARK, MAGEE, DUNIVANT, PAUSE, CRAWFORD, LeBLANC, C.SCHMIDT; Jaqua, Noonan, Ralph 2/4 2004 G.SULLIVAN, PARKE; Adu, Dempsey, Jam.Sutton, Gros 7/9 2005 GUZAN, O'ROURKE, H.FREEMAN, PARKHURST, A.LOPEZ, B.BOSWELL, MELAMED; C.Barrett, Sealy, Riley, Mediate, Rolfe, Kreamalmeyer, Cameron, Chisoni, R.Kelly 9/6 2006 WYNNE, BALLOUCHY, KLJESTAN, KAMARA, STURGIS, MOSS, GROENWALD, BORNSTEIN, VAUGHN; Garey, C.Carr, R.Johnson, K.Brown, Helm, Franks I find it noteworthy that the rookies who were opening day starters didn't pan out as well as the subs. For instance, there have been 8 US cap-winners among opening-day starters, 16 among the subs, plus Kovalenko and Ralph. It appears that a rookie starter is usually a guy a coach needs to use, while a rookie sub is a guy he wants to use.