OK folks -- Tuesday is the closest the US has ever had to a national primary. In an incredible reversal, the Republicans increasingly look as though they will have a candidate by Tuesday night, while the Democrats increasingly look like this will go on for a while. What does everyone think? I think I plan to drink martinis and watch the results. Three martinis, and I turn into an anarchist.
Martinis aren't my style, but I'm right with you on the drinking part. I'm going to make a bold prediction here and say that Obama takes CA and breaks Hill's back.
I predict a breakthrough night for Huckabee and Romney getting out. I also predict Dems splitting everything 50/50, having the nomination decided at the convention where they will nominate Zel Miller for the Presidency. After McCain wins the nomination, it will be the first time the Dem nominee is more conservative than the GOP.
My wife and I were at the distributor yesterday and besides beer and wine I bought a bottle of Belvedere. As were were paying, she told the cashier that the beer is for the Super Bowl and the vodka for Super Tuesday. I wonder if Romney was running the whole time with 2012 in mind. As for the Democrats, one thing to remember is that something like 20% of the delegates are "Superdelegates" not chosen in the primaries/cauci. If it gets close, they would be the ones choosing the nominee. This could get ugly, especially if one of the candidates has a clear lead in elected delegates. Throw in the controversy regarding the Michigan and Florida delegations, and it may not be 1968 all over again but it could make for fun television.
I'm going to predict that Hillary wins the popular vote in California but that they split the delegates almost evenly.
Just remember everyone, vote first, then drink. It's a horrible feeling to wake up on Wednesday morning, look over at your sample ballot, and say "oh my god, what was I thinking?"
Winning the popular vote will be key in Cali. Baring some strange late shift, the delegates will probably be split relatively evenly. But the press will be hard, umm, pressed not to jump on the bandwagon of the candidate who takes the popular vote. How pumped can either Hillary or Obama really be in their speeches if they come in second?
I won't be in the country so I'll miss out on the endless "I'll vote for McCain if Hillary is the nominee" threats from Obamaramas or see ITN change his location to "I'm with John." I'm not with John, but I expect he'll be the happiest man in America on Tuesday (though I've learned never to totally count out Mitt Handsome, Millionaire).
I read that too fast and thought you wrote: "Three matinis, and I turn into an antichrist" Those would be some powerful martinis.
I agree that the press will focus on the popular vote over delegates, which is a bit strange. Still, I think that Clinton needs to win in double digits in California to take any momentum out of Tuesday. She had a 20+ point lead from the beginning and California was always considered a clinton stronghold given the political establishment, and the amount of time the Clintons have spent in the state going back to 1992. They were nominally from Arkansas even though they didn't maintain a residence there during the 90s. They were practically Californians. Add in the large Latino population and the strong womens vote and the huge early voting that strongly favors Hillary, and if she wins by less than 10 she will be seen as spinning her wheels at best. A Hillary win between 6-10 will be something of a wash with neither candidate taking momentum out of California. A Hillary win between 5-10 will be seen as a serious surge by Obama who would have likely swamped her given more time. An Obama win turns the race on its head -- particularly if he does better than expected with Latinos and can take that on the road to Texas. . . . Pass the olives.
Well, I am a Republican, so most here would say that I am an antichrist, or at least one of his followers. But not before 11 AM in Chicago. We tried to buy some at the supermarket at 10:45 and they took it away from us. As usual, I starting blaming the "puritans" who run America and poke their nose in everyone's business. My Protestant liberal wife is never amused when I start that.
Antichrist, anarchist; tomato, tomahtoe. Anthony doesn't know what he wants, but he knows how to get it. And passers-by--watch out.
The polls are slowly shifting his way in Texas. Hillary's lead went from 34 points in December, to 10 points in the latest poll. Obama hasn't held any events here since November I believe, and the only commercials I've seen for him are the national ones shown on CNN. If you ask any Obama supporter their 2nd choice was Edwards, and I suspect the same may have been the case for Edwards supporters (only like opposite ya know).
I must procure more comestibles and inebriants! My bold prediction: They don't call the Democratic contests in California until Wednesday morning.
My prediction for the Hillary Clinton Campaign on Super Tuesday....... [youtube]Z1TxiVhrkZA[/youtube] I honestly think that Carville is right. IF Clinton loses CA with her name notoriety and the early voting, it is over. I think it will happen but I don't want to put the cart in front of the horse.