The stat being cited also puts Raya in the 81st percentile among Big 5 league goalkeepers over the last year. He's not an elite shot-stopper, but it's probably his worst trait and he's still very good at it. For a similar if more archaic stat, he's 94th percentile in save percentage. But way more importantly, he's ********ing phenomenal in the air. 95th percentile in crosses stopped, which is a big reason why we look so calm at the back. Defenders don't have to go all out for balls in the air if they know the keeper is going to get it, so they can keep their positioning. Surer hands means fewer chaotic pinballs in the area, which means fewer goals conceded. Compare that to Bernd Leno who's in the 20th percentile for the same stat, or Ramsdale who's in the 27th.
Raya didn’t cover himself in glory today, but the bigger problem was that we didn’t have a shot between when Trossard scored and when Sunderland equalized. Arteta’s way too defensive when we go up a goal and it’s cost us before.
Honestly I am not overly worried Key players are missing I think we have yet to see our best 11 … The fact we have 4/5 key players out and we are top of league with a season goal difference of 35 -5 ga is pretty damn good
Maybe I should put money on games in Vegas or Ladbrokes. My 'spider senses' told me this game was going to be bad. Maybe I jinx us? Don't know. That said, we're in good where a draw is seen as a loss. When 2 goals are seen like its 5. We simply have too many game changers out. On most days we can beat Sunderland home or away. There comes a time though you are not at the races and you need that moment of class. Odegaard can have a relatively average game but deliver that killer pass no one else can. We've seen Martinelli save us on more than a few occasions. Gyokeres was tailer made for this game. No one was occupying their CBs. Merino was playing as a false 9 for large parts of the time he was on the pitch. This was a game we had no strikers again and its crazy that going through that less than 6 months ago with a summer to fix it and we found ourselves in the same exact situation 11 games into the season? My hope is this is another game where we re-group and go on another run...and in the interim, pray for a draw in the City v Liverpool game so we can minimize the damage. By mid December we'll have everyone back I think. And then we will go on another run where we put some distance between us and the pack. Because we can play our best XI that suits that particular opponent and have game changers on the bench if one of the starters is having a bad day at the office and we need a goal...or to defend a shaky lead.
I think that's a good point. We went into a shell with no real outlet so the pressure was unrelenting.
I don’t trust stats. All I know is this season he has played really well. He has made some unbelievable saves. He also has been great at catching crosses and at commanding the box, and he is a good distributor and communicator. I really find it hard to find examples of mistakes he has made this season. We just had a tough game all around, but we probably would have lost this type of game in past seasons, so it is what it is. The defense went on an unbelievable streak of stellar play. A bad game was bound to happen at some point. But the back 6 have been excellent overall including Raya.
Raya has made some amazing saves from no where to give us wins and clean sheets, he definitely should have done better on the Sunderland second goal but then pre-match I thought if we were going to drop points at some point it would be Sunderland before the international break, just like how Liverpool got us before the first one and how we weren't really amazing before the WHU game before that break. But we are usually very very good for a win after an international break, and we should get bodies back. I saw a chart on reddit that breaks down games missed and when you see it laid out and how many games we have missed from attacking players and its no surprise we are scoring more open play goals. That said we score 2 against Sunderland and look where that got us
We reacted slowly to the second ball on both of their goals, and in both cases, there were multiple players guilty. Also, I find it hard to blame a keeper for coming off his line to make a play on the ball that is on his 6 yard box. The attacker just reacted quicker and made a great play on the ball. I would have been madder at Raya had he had stayed on his line, even though in hindsight, he may have been able to make a reaction save.
shot stopping doesn't matter is a crazy statement imo and crazier than anything i've said lol. Yeah it's hard to evaluate so we can use both the yes test and the data to show Raya has been one of our best keepers while also acknowledging that he's not really a top 5 shot stopper. I feel people forget the bozo moments raya has had over his career. I know it sucks but Clesrly Vicario is a better GK and i kind of wish we had him. I will concede that it's hard to evaluate and therefore upgrade. He's ours and i appreciate him but also can be unbiased and say i'd take alisson and henderson over him.
Vicario is a good shot-stopper and a mediocre Premier League goalkeeper. Keep that in mind the next time you see him get ragdolled on a corner. It's such a noisy stat that it really doesn't matter. Emi Martinez went from best in the league in post-shot xG +/- in 2020-21 to 7th-worst in 2021-22, to 3rd in the league by 2023-24. He didn't just lose his talent for a year. David de Gea led the league in that stat in 2017-18 by a huge margin and then was below league average for the next 5 years. Alisson led the league in 2022-23 and was 17th the next season, 4 spots behind superstar Martin Dubravka. Ederson led the league last season and City sold him to Fenerbahce. Barring an outlier here or there (Illan Meslier), most Premier League goalkeepers are basically interchangable in their shot-stopping because they're all good at it. The other parts of a goalkeeper's game have way more range of ability across the league, and that's what makes a modern goalkeeper good or not.
you are crazy man lol Vicario ? That same dude who regularly shits the bed on corners particularly in 2024 against us that guy ?
We could have easily drawn in a previous game where the last kick of hit the post. This time we got scored on. It happens. What gives me solace is the depth of the squad and we pretty much having everone back by the end of the calendar year. We go into the 2nd half of the season strong. This isn't the all conquering City team. They are capable of a run but not as likely from the side I have seen through 11 games so far. I am fairly confident. This squad I'm guessing is angry. They are gonna come back and do a statement of intent performance against Tottenham. Who by the way I think could flirt with top 4 when they get everyone back. Yeah...yeah...they are wildly inconsistent at times but at full strength they are capable of mounting a reasonable run of games. That being said, I think Newcastle will take points off City. They are not good on the road but tough to beat at home. They played us very strong and they barely lost end of the game to Liverpool 3-2. They are very, very tough to play at home. I see back to 6 points after the weekend we play Tottenham. Bad news is it may go back to 4 if we draw at Chelsea which is very possible.
I don't disagree it's a noisy stat. But it's a stat we have and it tells us something.And yes it shows us when keepers have one great season (Raya and Emi)and the what they do after. You can hate on Alisson but he's alwqys been higher than Raya. He was not 17th he was 11th i posted those graphics in the previous page to show. I certainly disagree with the "every PL is interchangeable" belief specially since i mentioned Vicario ( who was not good prior to last year but has seemingly started to turn around) you and others would not take that trade. My claim was that Raya is not a top 5 shot stopper in the PL and none of y'all have disproven that. Just a lot of disagreement which is fair but i have at least provided evidence. No one else has. But whatever yes it sucks we gave up 2 golas on less than 1 xG and Gabby got beat too on the second goal. No clue what David was doing though.
Different stats, I sorted on raw number, you sorted per 90. I'm not hating on Alisson at all. I'm using him, widely viewed as one of the best goalkeepers in the world, as an example of why that stat is pretty much meaningless at the top level. No one's arguing that he's an elite shotstopper. We're arguing that it's not very important. Another example of why the stat is meaningless as a means of evaluating a goalkeeper's quality is Jose Sa. He's in his 5th season in the Premier League. In those seasons, his post-shot xG +/- has ranked: 1st, 36th (4th worst), 1st, 42nd (3rd worst), 29th (worst). If a player's stat careens that much from one extreme to another, it's probably not a good analytical tool.
can you expand why? like i someone has a career year and hits like 0.400 and then the enxt few years he goes back to 0.200 is that a stat problem?
It's a percentage based on the shots faced, but it doesn't say anything about the shots faced. Which is why it's largely a useless stat unless you a lot about the context, but at that point the context is more important than the stat.
As you know I'm no guru of advanced stats, but I thought PSxG was more intended to improve on the deficiencies of xG, and also more applicable to offensive strength rather than to goalkeepers?
ut to take off after the international break since nearly everyone who is out will be back.[/QUOTE] I think the defensive strength is a product of the midfield, more than Raya, which is not to say that I think he's bad but any good defense starts with a solid midfield. Whether you defend with or without possession. If your midfield is trash you will look like trash defensively.
Your claim was he’s not a top 5 keeper, and when there was pushback, including evidence from @ArsenalMetro that shot stopping isn’t the be all end-all you moved the goalposts. Yes. Sabermetricians would tell you batting average is such a noisy stat that it won’t normalize over the course of an entire season, meaning like 500-600 at bats isn’t enough to make it useful. That’s why all of the focus has shifted to things like OPS+ and WAR.
Nope, but that's not to say he couldn't have rotated a tad more. For the 2 weekend EPL matches, it was almost identical except for Merino replacing Gyorkeres. For the midweek UCL match, he brought in 3 more: Hincapie, Norgaard, Nwaneri.
the shot post shot xg of each shot raya has face this year is 0.20. SO he's faced a lot of low quality shots. He faced he's not a top 5 keeper and i stand by that. I didn't move the goal posts i think the best keeper are the ones who save you goals. He also has faced low-quality shots this season. But whatevs agree to disagree.