Statisical Playoff Perspective

Discussion in 'New England Revolution' started by crash2772, Aug 12, 2002.

  1. crash2772

    crash2772 New Member

    Mar 18, 2001
    Eastern Conf. Standings (as of Aug 12th)

    tm gp pts ppg
    Met 21 29 1.38
    Chi 21 28 1.33
    Clb 22 28 1.27
    Revs 21 22 1.05
    DCU 21 22 1.05

    Expected points @ the end of the season if the current trend continues...
    Metros = 39
    Chicago = 37
    Columbus = 36
    Revs = 29
    DCU = 29

    Home games remaining:
    Revs = 4
    Columbus = 3
    Chicago = 4

    clearly we need to make up 6 points on either Columbus or Chicago during the next 7 games. Columbus is the easier team to catch b/c they have one less game to play (6) and they are the weaker team when compared with chicago.

    Important dates for Revs to make up points:
    August 18 vs. Chicago
    August 24 @ Chicago
    August 31 @ Columbus
    Sept. 14: Chicago @ Columbus
    Sept. 22: Columbus @ Chicago

    looking at this, if we protect our home field (yes i know this is the Revs and therefore asking a lot) and can tie columbus on the road we should make the playoffs. We would get alot of help if one team wins both of the Chi-Clb games. At least we still have an outside shot.

    looking on the bright side if the trend does continue... we'll get a good draft pick!

    *sorry for the tables not being spaced properly, i dont know how to make them stay aligned.
  2. Rodan

    Rodan New Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Interesting stuff Crash...

    Just a couple-o-comments:

    I think we'd all agree that if the Revs can't top their season PPG (point-per-game) average over the last seven games, they won't make the playoffs (nor should they).

    I also think, no matter what happens, the Revs are pretty much guaranteed a pretty good draft pick (top 3!). ;)

    I'd also agree that the Revs are going to catch anyone, it'll be the Crew (Bob Bradley's team simply don't seem to know how to miss the playoffs).
  3. ManInBlack

    ManInBlack New Member

    Jul 6, 2001
    I've updated this posting from last week, essentially agreeing with the above:

    If Llamosa and Pierce are healthy, and Brown starts and stays healthy, I give us even odds of getting in.

    With 5 of our 7 remaining games against East Div. teams, at least we control our own destiny somewhat. I only wish two of those matches weren't against the Fire.

    Let's face it: a lot will depend on what Columbus does. It will be very tough for the Crew. The Revs have a game in hand on them, and the Crew only have 3 matches left against East teams--and two of those are against Chicago. They have to play KC, SJ, and LA, too.
  4. JMMUSA8

    JMMUSA8 New Member

    Nov 3, 2001
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    didn't we trade that draft pick away to San Jose to get cap space for Griffiths?
  5. soccertim

    soccertim Member

    Mar 29, 2001
    Re: Re: Statisical Playoff Perspective

    I would hope that we didn't trade our first round draft pick (pretty much guaranteed top 3) to SJ for cap space for Griffiths. If we did, whoever made that trade needs to go.
  6. Jon Martin

    Jon Martin Member+

    Apr 25, 2000
    SE Mass
    Re: conditional picks

    The pick we traded was a "conditional" pick, exactly like the ones we received for Wynalda and Jamar B. IIRC, we were awarded 4th and 5th round picks for those two, even though they racked up numbers that Griffith will not with the Revs in 2002. I would imagine that the pay-back for Griffith would be similar.
  7. Coach_Barry

    Coach_Barry Member

    Aug 18, 2001
    Taunton, MA
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What exactly does 'conditional draft pick' mean?

    While you're at it, what does 'future considerations' mean?
  8. JG_Revs

    JG_Revs Moderator

    Sep 11, 1999
    Metro is now our closest target, at 7 points.

    Wouldn't it be something if we could come within 2-3 points of the final playoff spot for the Rev-Metro derby? Hmm... nah.

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