Well I'm always looking for ways to get around studying for finals so I'm going to take some time to analyze the current state of the US team following the Mexico match. I'm going to try to break down where we stand now heading into qualifying and, hopefully at a later date, where we ought to stand come the World Cup, assuming we qualify. This will probably result in a very lengthy analysis so be forewarned. I'm trying to go about this based on Arena's perspective but you can never completely eliminate bias, so some of my favoritism may show through and in fact, I'm sure it will. In the player selection I'm using, I will assume everyone is healthy at the moment which is a rarity but it happens from time to time, so here goes: Qualifying lineup: This assumes we have all players available for qualifying which I understand will not be the case at all times, especially for early qualifiers. 4-4-2 Arena loves the 4-4-2 and with the recent success of the box formation I believe it will be our mainstay throughout qualifying. I do expect to see variants in the formation depending on player availability, most likely changing from the box system to one that includes wingers, but the lack of a true strong right winger will ultimately lead Bruce to prefer the box formation. A 3-5-2 is also possible, but will be used mainly for tactical reasons, and again, the lack of a strong right winger severely hurts this formation's effectiveness. ------------------Best in form + Experience---------------- ---------------------(Next best in form)------------------------ -----------------Pope-----------Bocanegra-------------- -------------(Mastroeni)----------(Gibbs)------------------ Cherundolo---------------------------------------Convey (Hejduk/Sanneh)-----------------------------------(Vanney) -------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------Reyna----------O'brien----------------- ----------------(Zavagnin)-------(Armas)----------------- ------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------Donovan----------Beasley--------------- ----------------(Stewart)---------(Convey)---------------- ------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------McBride--------Best in form----------- -----------------(Casey)------(Next best in form)------ Breakdown by Club: Here I will include analysis of different things I find interesting Club teams of Starters: 1. One of Manchester United, Tottenham, or Blackburn (England) 2. Metrostars (USA) 3. Fulham (England) 4. Hanover 96 (Germany) 5. DC United (USA) 6. Manchester City (England) 7. Ajax (Holland) 8. Bayer Leverkusen (Germany)/San Jose (USA) 9. Chicago (USA) 10. Fulham (England) 11. Clubs including: Kansas City (USA), Hanover 96 (Germany), and New England (USA) Club teams of Subs: 1. One of Manchester United, Tottenham, or Blackburn (England) 2. Colorado (USA) 3. Dallas (USA) 4. Columbus (USA)/Nuremburg (Germany) 5. Bastia (France) 6. Kansas City (USA) 7. Chicago (USA) 8. DC United (USA) 9. DC United (USA) 10. Borussia Dortmund/Karlsruhe (Germany) 11. Clubs including: Kansas City (USA), Hanover 96 (Germany), and New England (USA) What does this mean? Four of our starters are based in America with up to three of them likely to move on to Europe before the World Cup. The fourth is likely to stay but is one of the best defenders in the world even though he will likely never be remembered as such, and is fully capable of playing for any top team in Europe. Two to four other starters are MLS alumni. This tells me that MLS is doing its job in developing American players and sending them overseas to refine their games. Seven to eight of the subs are based in MLS with three to four of them having realistic Euro potential, while some of the older players could play in Europe just not for teams of considerable merit. Only three to four players chose to head overseas to began their career and rose up through the ranks to the top level leagues they play in today. This tells me that a player has a much better chance to make the US team if they begin in the US but of the players that chose to stay and tough it out in Europe, potentially three of them rank in the top five US players, a statistic that is pretty remarkable and shows that those that do head over to Europe and survive, tend to refine their game to a level above MLS players. Breakdown by Position: Here I will analyze the players by position and note other players not mentioned previously that will give them a run for their money. Goalkeeper: One of: Kasey Keller, Tim Howard, and Brad Friedel Perhaps our most solid position. Each of these players counts themselves among the world's best at their position, something the US can boast in no other position. Most people here would feel comfortable with any of these players in goal and Arena probably isn't losing too much sleep at night agonizing over who to play. That said, Arena will most likely go with experience during qualifying, so I don't expect Howard to start many games. Come 2006 however... Sleepers: Johnny Walker There is really only one player that can challenge the above three and stand to see time in qualifying, mainly because he is the only domestic keeper of a similar level to the above three, and by that fact alone may see time in early qualifiers. Walker also has European potential and may wind up in Europe by 2006, but that remains to be seen. Who's Missing? Kevin Hartman Adin Brown Both of these players are talented but also prone to letting in soft goals from time to time. Of the two, Brown has the most potential, but he will have to play spectacularly in MLS this year to have a chance to make any difference in qualifying and ultimately the World Cup. Closing Fast: No one really. The position is too stacked. Central Defense: Starters: Eddie Pope and Carlos Bocanegra Subs: Pablo Mastroeni and Cory Gibbs Central defense is shaping into our next strongest position outside of goalkeeper. Here we have both talent and depth. Pope and Bocanegra are a potentially world class combination, each combining size, athleticism and an excellent read of the game, moreso in Pope's case. Bocanegra edges Pope on distribution however. I have liked Mastroeni on the backline since the Gold Cup before the World Cup. He's quick, strong, a good passer and reads the game well. The knock on him is his height, in which he may be at a disadvantage against tall strong European teams. Against smaller sides, he may even be preferable to Bocanegra. Cory Gibbs is just bursting with potential. As time goes on he may make a move on a starting spot. He plays very similar to Pope but doesn't quite have his read of the game yet. He probably also needs to work more on his distribution. Also of note is Pope and Bocanegra are both excellent on set pieces and I believe Gibbs probably isn't too shabby either. Who's Missing? Danny Califf Tony Sanneh Gregg Berhalter Daniel Hernandez Califf is edged out because he can't compare athletically to the aforementioned four. He needs to work on his athleticism or develop a stellar read of the game to make any kind of push for a starter's spot. Sanneh is a good athlete but lacks lateral quickness. He also is still recovering from back surgery which kept him out of play for a year. As Tony is getting on in age his opportunity at right back is closing as some of his athleticism will begin to wear off. He will be playing in the center for whatever team he winds up playing for in all probability and as a result he will contend for a spot in qualifying. There are just too many question marks to include him on the same level as the above mentioned four. Berhalter is enjoying one of his best campaigns ever in the Second Bundesliga this year, even striking a rich vein of goals. His lack of athleticism combined with age hurts him though and he will most likely remain in the back of the nats picture during qualifying, although I expect him to get time and perhaps a start or two along the way. All three of these players are threats on set pieces. Hernandez is a player I've always liked but I doubt that Bruce calls him in. He's got great foot skills, some of the best of any American, not only at his position but at all positions. He's also excellent at free kicks, a notable weakness in the US' attack. Problem is his supposed attitude and he is probably not as strong defensively as all the other players I have mentioned so far. Still, I'd like to see him get a shot, you can't deny his talent. Closing Fast: Gooch Nat Borchers Jonathan Spector Frank Simek Zak Whitbread Gooch has been performing regularly in Europe and I'm confident he'll get looked at over the summer at some point. He combines massive size with speed, athleticism, and good ball skills. Some will call for him to be played on the right but I don't see Arena playing him there unless his hand is forced. Over time he should proove to be a great player but he's not quite there yet, even so he will make a push during qualifying and ultimately may earn a spot in 2006. Nat plays consistently well and is showing that his rookie season wasn't a fluke. What hurts him is his lack of speed and athleticism. He has a great read for the game though and if he continues to develop that, he may earn a chance. Spector is one of Man U's top prospects. He earns rave reviews day in and day out with the reserves and has been a model of consistency. If he gets first team action next year, either with Man U or another club he will be one to watch out for. He is probably the best long term prospect the US has at central defense. Simek is captaining Arsenal's reserves which shows his leadership qualities. From what I understand he's not a natural athelete, much like Borchers, and lacks size but the intangible quality of leadership and a good read of the game can take you places and, like Spector, if Simek gets more first team action to go along with his play in the Carling Cup this year, for either Arsenal or another side, then he may make a push during the late rounds of qualifying. Whitbread is a player that is likely to get first team action at some point next season and always gets good reviews. He has been injured lately but is close to making his comeback and if he has a breakout year next year then he might very well find himself in the mix. Right Back: Starter: Steve Cherundolo Subs: Frankie Hedjuk or Tony Sanneh Cherundolo wins the start because the box formation calls for the outside backs to really get forward and Cherundolo has the best offensive game of any of our potential right backs by far. He seems rejuvenated playing under a new coach at Hanover and has been one of their best players as of late. His height hurts but being an outside back, having blazing speed, and such a strong central defense behind him means it is of little importance. He will need to work on his read of the game some, though, in order to keep his small stature of as little a liability as possible. Hedjuk is a machine, not particularly skillful, but fast, strong and competitive. His lack of skill going forward really hurts him and costs him the starter's role. Sanneh is better suited to central defense at this point in his career but he can still play on the right in a pinch. Who's Missing? Chris Albright He's really the only immediate competition to the above mentioned players. He'll get his chances from Arena but who knows if he'll take them? He's got good size and athleticism but lacks in lateral quickness. He's got competent ball skills and ought to move forward well based on his history as a forward and then a right midfielder. He's definitely one to watch out for, and may take over the backup spot, and if Cherundolo falters, who knows... Closing Fast: Gooch Brian Namoff As I mentioned earlier, Gooch would more be better suited in the center, but since it's so crowded and there appears to be a lack of depth on the right, Gooch may have an opportunity to impress Bruce. Namoff has been a consistent force on the right and brings good ball skills. I like what I've seen but he isn't a natural athelete and can make mistakes from time to time. Still, he's one to look out for. Left Back Starter: Bobby Convey Sub: Greg Vanney Many people would push for Convey in the midfield but I believe that Bruce will continue the left back experiment, especially as Bobby seems to grow more and more comfortable there with every start. He is the American Roberto Carlos and gets very involved offensively. He is suspect defensively but has been improving in leaps and bounds there as of late. Vanney is pretty consistent, he has a good left foot and reads the game well. He is slow of foot and therefore is limited. He provides an able backup and spot starter though. Who's Missing? Cory Gibbs Carlos Bocanegra Both of these players are better suited in the center and don't fit the box system as well as Bobby does. It is likely one or both will make a few starts here during the course of qualifying though. Outside of these two playing out of position, there isn't much depth. Closing Fast: Antonio de la Torre Danny Karbassiyoon Zak Whitbread De la Torre is an unknown at this point. If he performs well with the Rapids this year he will most likely be in the mix. He seems to be pretty good at set pieces and has good foot skills. Karbassiyoon is probably the biggest stretch on this thread. He's lately been getting time with Arsenal's reserves at this position and if he gets a loan and excels, he might stand a chance to get a run out towards the end of qualifying. Our lack of depth here helps his case. Whitbread has been injured lately but he's peformed well here for the U-20 and U-23 teams. He plays in the center for the Liverpool reserves and most likely that's where his future lies. Holding Midfielders: Starters: Claudio Reyna and John O'brien Subs: Kerry Zavagnin and Chris Armas Reyna and O'brien are two of our top three players and provide an excellent pair in the middle of the field. They are both competent defensively and excellent distributors. Claudio especially, provides a calming influence that is vital for the US' ability to defend and possess the ball. Problem is both are prone to injury and their backups present a huge drop off in quality. If one is injured there will be a noticable drop in offensive output, if both are, a huge one. Zavagnin and Armas are both excellent on defense but poor distributors when compared to O'brien and Reyna, Armas especially so. A noticable lack in all four is size and athleticism, which may be a concern against athletic speedy teams, such as many African nations. Who's Missing? Richard Mulrooney Pablo Mastroeni I would rate Mulrooney most likely above both Zavagnin and Armas. He combines their defensive skills, with little dropoff, and a much improved offensive game. Arena doesn't seem to like him as much as the above two, but that can change and Mulrooney may find himself as the number one backup for Reyna and O'brien. Mastroeni may also be better than Zavagnin and Armas, but he doesn't play there for his club and seems better suited on the backline. He may be called into action here at some point during qualifying however. Closing Fast: Kyle Beckerman Brian Carroll Ricardo Clark Beckerman may be the closest to being ready of the three. He has really blossomed lately with Colorado and would be a drastic improvement over the backups in his ability to distribute. He needs to work on his defensive game a little more to draw attention from the Bruce. A goal here and there would be nice as well. I would say a drawback is athleticism, but none of the players ahead of him are world class athletes either. Carroll is pretty much the same story as Beckerman, just less polished. After this MLS season he may begin drawing attention to himself. Clark is the best athlete of all our holding midfield prospects. He is a better defender than the above two but his offensive game isn't as solid. If he works on his passing he may even work his way to a starter by the end of qualifying. Attacking Midfielders: Starters: Landon Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley Subs: Earnie Stewart and Bobby Convey Landon is in a class of his own...that is when he wants to be bothered. He needs to work on his consistency and a trip to Europe might help in that regard, but when he's on, he presents the US' best attacking threat by far. Beasley has become fairly consistent as of late and has a great relationship with Donovan on the field. He's lightning fast, as is Donovan, and together they can put fear in the heart of opposing defenders. Stewart is the backup here because he's really the only player we have that Arena would feel confident with playing in Donovan's role in a box formation. He won't last much beyond qualifying and even there I don't expect to see a big role for him, but he is capable of playing this role in a pinch. When Bobby's not playing on the left side of defense he is more than capable of playing this position, perhaps even better than Beasley. He will most likely be needed elsewhere in a full strength lineup but Arena can always shuffle his lineup to get Bobby in here. Who's Missing? Steve Ralston Chris Klein Eddie Lewis Brian Mullan All four of these players are traditional wingers and therefore don't fit in as well in a box system. Of the four, Eddie would make the smoothest transition and if Arena doesn't wanna move Bobby there, Eddie would make the obvious choice. If the US employs wingers, Klein stands a good chance to see time, although it would be an obvious weakness in the lineup if he did. None of these players is terribly athletic and when Arena does use wingers he prefers athletes when there is no large skill gap. Since none of these players are otherworldy talented they stand the chance to be left out. Overall the lack of right wingers will probably lead Arena to avoid the traditional 4-4-2 and play with a box system. Closing Fast: Eddie Gaven Kyle Martino Brad Davis Freddy Adu Justin Mapp Arturo Alvarez Eddie Gaven is the most ready of the group here so far. He has really come on as of late with the Metrostars and his ability belies his young age. He is likely to get a call up by the end up the current MLS season and would seem the natural replacement for Donovan, and by the end of qualifying may in fact have supplanted Beasley. Martino seems to have been regressing as of late with the horribleness of the Crew. He has plenty of ability, however, and since this position doesn't call for much defense he may be able to thrive. Davis has been under the radar for over a year now and presents a genuine free kick threat. He's a strong player but not sure if he'll ever be starter quality. He does have a great left foot and is an accurate crosser, all things that point to his favor. Freddy has a long ways to go before making it into a qualifying lineup. His skill is obvious and I believe that after a year of MLS, he will improve his game drastically. Already he has shown great vision and passing, he just needs to work strongly on his runs and allow his body to develop. Mapp is another player that may be due for a callup in the near future, but he needs to become a consistent 90 minute player before doing so. He's a more complete player than Beasley and by the end of qualifying he may start to get some minutes. Alvarez is probably the best dribbler of the bunch outside of Freddy but needs to work on his overall game. Still if he continues to develop, he may be one to look out for. Center Forward: Starter: Brian McBride Sub: Conor Casey Brian is still going strong playing at the top level. He has the great ability to shield the ball and improve the players around him. The lack of playing time as of late is bound to hurt his game, so recovering his starting spot may be vital as Casey is coming on strong. Casey is one of the leading scorers in the Second Bundesliga this year and there is little doubt he'll be with a Bundesliga team next year, perhaps even getting time with Bundesliga powerhouse, Borussia Dortmund. Casey really needs to work on his touch however as that seems to be the main thing holding him back. Who's Missing? Jovan Kirovski Ante Razov John Wolyniec Kirovski and Razov aren't really target players but in the US setup they often get played there. Razov is pretty much done in a US jersey but Kirovski still has a chance to get more caps in qualifying as he has been playing well with the Galaxy. Wolyniec is a pain in neck for everyone defending him. He seems to lack all possible skill and looks awkward yet he still scores and plays pretty well. Still, he is not on the same level as any of the above mentioned players. Closing Fast: Edson Buddle Kenny Cooper Eddie Johnson Buddle has virtually the complete package, he just lacks heading ability. Outside of that, he probably has the best ball skills of all potential target forwards. It also might be a good idea to get out of Columbus because they seem to be making everyone look poor. A new coach might also help too. Still Buddle is likely to see time at some point during qualifying. If Cooper gets first team minutes he may emerge as a potential for qualifying. He is rated highly by Man U and as none of us has seen Kenny play in the recent past, we're all keeping our fingers crossed as to his ability. Hopefully this is Eddie's year. He's got so much potential and talent but it never seems to really burst forth. He scored a nice goal the other day and if he keeps up his form he could be challenged for a starting spot by the end of qualifying. His athletic tools eclipse anyone we've seen at this position, although his heading needs work. Striker One of: Taylor Twellman, Pat Noonan, Clint Mathis, and Josh Wolff Arena doesn't seem to have a huge preference in this position so basically whoever is most in form stands a good chance to start. Twellman is the most natural finisher of any player in the US pool and he has shown shades of reproducing that form for the US. Even when he doesn't score, he often puts it on frame, oftentimes leading to juicy rebounds ripe for the taking. Noonan is a more complete player and isn't afraid to shoot from the outside, a talent sadly lacking in the side. If he has another big season I expect to see him get considerable minutes during qualifying. Mathis is the most naturally talented but also the weakest athlete. He really doesn't play like a striker and that may keep him out of the side. When he is on however, and I mean on for the US, not for club, he can be the US' most dangerous player. Wolff if finally healthy so it's only a matter of time before he stubs a toe and is out for the season. But he's been playing well lately and has even been passing well, a facet to his game he did not previously seem to have in abundance. If he can recover his speed he may make this position his own, as he might be our second most talented finisher behind Twellman, and is able to get in positions to score, unlike Mathis. Who's Missing? Since I mentioned Razov and Kirovski under center forwards, there really isn't any noticable absences. Closing Fast: Jemal Johnson Mike Magee Alecko Eskandarian Eddie Johnson Davy Arnaud Freddy Adu Jemal Johnson is YA we here little about. He's been starting and scoring with Blackburn's reserves lately and with their strikeforce, outside of the impressive Stead, rapidly aging, he may get a chance next season, or perhaps a loan to a lower division side. Magee seems to suck and then he scores on you. He's also supposed to be pretty talented on free kicks, but he needs to work on his consistency before he gets a call up, and really he needs to be consistent to even grab a starters spot on the Metro's loaded front line. Eskandarian has performed pretty well for DC early on, but he's going to have to work on finishing his chances because he's not athletically gifted enough to make them on his own. Eddie Johnson was mentioned earlier but he might perform better in this role. He really has all the tools, just needs to see the goals. I've liked what I've seen out of Davy Arnaud and I suggest everyone take a look at this guy. He's got good foot skills and is an able passer. He's a starter with Kansas City and if he scores ten goals or so this year he definitely deserves a look. I believe Freddy would perform better in the midfield where he wouldn't take so much punishment but, again, if he continues to develop and works on his decision making and runs, then he may make a case for himself by the end of the hex. Conclusions: Based upon this analysis, it is easy to identify the US' strengths. We have an abundance of strong goalkeepers, central defenders, and attacking midfielders. We have a lot of forwards but none that really stands out. We also seem to have little in the width department. This seems to point to a bos formation and I expect to see it throughout qualifying. We have a lot of young attacking talent and a few of them are bound to pan out in the next two years. One of our biggest needs is a deadly finisher that can make his own shot. Donovan can be this guy when on his game, but he would perform better in a box midfield where he can be more damaging. A deadly striker is needed. Capable backups also need to be developed for Reyna and O'brien as the depth there is poor and lacks quality. Depth also needs to be developed for the outside backs. As it stands now, if we send this team into qualifying they should finish top of the hex when all is said and done. Even Mexico and Costa Rica can't match a full strength US lineup and hopefully by the end of qualifying, a few of our weaknesses will be resolved to the point where we can compete with the absolute best. Well now that I've wasted a few hours of my life, maybe I should start studying for my final that starts in four hours...
Wow, the dope these kids smoke in college today must be stronger than the stuff we had when I was in school. Half of the guys you mention are not in their right position and the other half will never play in a WC qualifier or final.
Umm sorta missed the spirit of the thread didn't you? I never claimed everyone on that list would be capped for qualifiers, I listed them as possibilities for qualifiers and they are. I expect a lot of the "closing fast" people to never get any significant time with the Nats. And name one player I mentioned that couldn't play the position I had them listed under. If Bobby Convey can be switched to defense, a player can make a minor position change while on the national team, it happens all the time. Jeez, if you're gonna be critical at least back your stuff up. I wouldn't blame you for not reading the whole thing, I copied and pasted it in Word to see how long it was and it came out to 21 pages double spaced (quite possibly the longest thing I've ever typed in one sitting) but to reply and make completely unfounded criticism is just pointless. I wrote this for the diehard USMNT fans, so if you don't have anything valid to say, why say anything at all?
Good stuff Riverdale. I too really liked the 4-4-2 that Arena employed against Mexico. I think it took a couple of positions that were significant weaknesses for us and either eliminated them or turned them into a bit of a strength. By eliminating the wing midfielders, we do two things -- we eliminate the need for a right outside mid -- and since we don't have any worth playing at this level, that's a good thing. Also, instead of looking for strong defensive players to play outside back, we can go with guys who are much more two way players like Convey and Cherundolo. Having two defensive mids allows us to do this with our outside backs and still be solid defensively. As for who goes where, there are only a couple things I'd change... I'd classify Mathis as a backup to Donovan and Beasley in the AM slot rather than as a striker. That's where he's playing at Hannover and I think that's where he's been more effective for the US. He's the backup there along with Convey, not Stewart. Also, I think we'd have Lewis and one of the right mids on a WC roster, but they would not really be backups to the AM spot. Rather, they'd be there for when Bruce thinks we need to go to an alternate formation such as a 3-5-2 or use the diamond mid 4-4-2 instead of the box mid 4-4-2. Finally, I think your forward list is the most "off". At Center Forward, McBride is the starter & Casey is the backup. I think that Kirovski & Buddle belong in the who's missing category and I have no problem with Cooper & Johnson listed as closing fast. Razov (done) and Woly (doesn't belong) shouldn't be there. At Striker, you've got Twellman, Noonan, Mathis or Wolff. Mathis belongs at the AM spot as I've already said. I have no problem with the other 3, but Wolff better start showing more than he showed last night or has been showing with his club team. In the closing fast category, the only one I'd list is Johnson. The others are not ready for this level and IMO aren't even close enough to be considered closing fast. One of the things that we may see with the box midfield is that we actually go with two strong physical forwards rather than our traditional combination of one strong physical and one speedster. If we do that, then Wolff and Johnson lose out. In fact, in that situation, I'd list McBride and Casey as the starters with two of Twellman, Noonan and Buddle as the alternates. If Johnson gets some more experience over the rest of this year, perhaps he could get is way into the alternates list.
I used the term "closing fast" liberally I will admit. The thing is, with qualifying, players can appear out of nowhere, especially if there are injuries, and many of the forward prospects are somewhat unknowns that I believe have the potential to pop up out of nowhere. Some of them will turn into nobodies, that's how soccer is, but I'm willing to bet at least one of them makes a push at some point. I didn't list Buddle in the "who's missing" category because he's only gotten two caps if I remember correctly, each in garbage time, so he's still an unknown with Bruce. He also hasn't been in many camps, and with Columbus playing bad, it will make him look worse than he is. If he still looks good when the rest of his team is crap then that will really make a statement, I'm a big fan of his talent. Good point about Mathis, just not sure he has the work rate to play attacking mid in the role of a box midfield. He tends to float in and out of games and in a box midfield you really need your attacking players to make a difference. I really see Mathis as a tweener for the Nats, not sure where he fits in, or if he can really help the squad without rearranging it in all sorts of ways. As for Razov and Woly, I pretty much stated that I thought they'd be non-factors, but Bruce had been calling Woly up lately and Razov is always a hot topic so I figured I'd mention them. Glad to see someone actually read through the whole thing, I appreciate your criticism.
First off, Riverdale, thanks for a fun read. I share a lot of kevbrunton's tweaks to your thought process, but it's awfully good to have someone fully hash it out to help define the boundaries of the discussion. Kev, I agree that Wolff's performance last night left something to be desired. however, after the Poland match I had him penciled in as the starting striker against Grenada (Man of the Match for the first half, for my money). I might still think that way, if I didn't think that when it comes to it, Bruce will look to rely on Donovan to eat up a weaker team (see last year's 4-goal game against Cuba) or, if he leaves Donovan in midfield, to hope that Twellman's ability to exploit what I anticipate will be a little bit of sloppy defense will get us a goal or two all on its own. Taylor's still a little green to completely rely on him in a WCQ match, but if me alternative is hoping Ante nails a couple of long shots to put us comfortably clear, I'll take Taylor and take my chances.
Good stuff Riverdale...finals time sure gets the creative procrastination juices flowing, no? A generally good analysis, I could pick at many a thing, but overall some nice stuff. I just want to add: Chris Albright?! Am I the only one who thinks he's a no-talent clown? He has never impressed me (sans the midfield goal against Fat Tony--and that was more funny than anything). He has no business being on a WCQ team, let alone a WC team. Ok, rant over.
One more thing (since there's no edit button), I really wish the US could have some how snagged Damani Ralph. There really isn't a forward like him in the Nats pool except for maybe Donovan...but he's been capped by Jamaica so it is a moot point.
We need depth at that position. He's no higher than fourth on the chart, but one of those above him is Sanneh. Other options for that deep spot on the chart are guys who are really center backs, or players like Heaps, Victorine, Leitch, Namoff, and CJ Brown. Which is my way of saying: hope that we go to a three man backline; Stevie C continues to improve, or Hejduk keeps coming up with his best performances in our most important games and saves his bad performances for games that don't matter.
Good thread guys, but... If we continue to use the 4-2-2-2 that we used last night, I think players like McBride and Casey are the expendable ones. How many crosses were there to get on the end of last night during the run of play? I think if anything, we should just put more speed or more prolific finishing out there. Mathis - Wolff - E. Johnson - Twellman And later down the line add Adu - Gavento the list. The thing about last night was how fast we were and how quick we played in combination. I say more speed not less. (Note: Casey is quick for a big guy - so if I have to pick one, go with him)
I really think our preferred outside backs will depend completely upon what midfield we play. When we play at diamond middle with wide wings, then we have little or no serious defensive help from the middle. Therefore, our outside backs must be true defenders first and only need SOME ability to get into the attack. In those cases, Sanneh or Gibbs at right back and Bocanegra or Vanney at left back make a lot of sense with Pope & Mastro in the center. However, this box middle like we played last night provides two strong defensive midfielders. Imagine an Obrien & Reyna as those defensive midfielders. They are both VERY strong defenders with excellent situational awareness. Combine that with a central defense of Pope & Boca. Our outside backs can be much more free to attack out of the back. When they do either a defensive midfielder slides to provide cover like Armas did a LOT last night when Convey attacked or when our central defenders have to slide wide to stop an attack, the defensive midfielders are more than adequate cover dropping into the center of the defense. With this type of a setup, guys like Convey and Cherundolo with the decent defensive skills and outstanding attacking skills make very good outside backs for us. And considering that we don't even have anyone who is an adequate right outside mid and that our best left outside mid is effective all over the field, it just seems to me that this box midfield could have some legs. A lot of people have argued that we should be using a 3-5-2 because it puts more of our skilled players on the field and plays to the strengths we have in our central defenders. I think this box mid 4-4-2 does the same thing. We have not seen a formation that could potentially put so many of our most skilled players on the field without playing several of the extremely out of position.
No, no, no, no, noooo! In order for those midfielders to get so much of the ball and they must have targets a) help disrupt the other teams defense and midfield to create turnovers and b) to receive the ball for them to play off of. Why do you think Wolff was so invisible in this setup? Because there is less of a need to make runs off the ball like a Wolff and Johnson and more of a need for the forwards to check to balls like Casey, McBride and Twellman. You need those guys banging the defenders and creating pressure on the defense to play quickly. If you give the defenders time like Wolff, Razov, Kirovski & Mathis tend to do, then the defenders just play the ball over and around our strength and totally negate our dominating midfield.
Great thread, it's nice to see the whole player pool, especially with the new formation. I'm really liking this box formation. We should be very good, especially when replacing Zavagnin and Armas with O'Brien and Reyna. That should be amazing. I think I'm going to side with kevbrunton as far as the strikers go. I think Twellman with Casey or McBride is the way to go. Mathis is probably better suited to midfield or providing a spark off the bench.
One question I've always wondered. Why do we never consider O'Brian at Left Back? We keep saying how our outside backs are our weakest spots, yet we have a very talented player who plays that position for one of the big clubs in Europe and never put him there. Instead of putting O'Brian at left back, we put Convey (who plays professionally in the midfield) there. Just seems to make more sense to put Convey in the mid and O'Brian in the back (though I'm not sold on Convey being a starting 11 player for the team yet). Sure, its nice to have O'Brian's skill and composure in the midfield, but we have a bunch of good midfield players (Claudio, Donavan, DMB, Mastroeni, Armas (at least according to Bruce), Martino, Mathis, Convey) that we're trying to fit on the field. Why not put O'Brian in the back, where he also plays well (and can get into the attack) and fill one of our weaknesses?
I would say the biggest reason is we have such a drop off from O'brien to his replacement. I don't think O'brien over Convey for left back is as big an upgrade as say O'brien over Armas. Together with Reyna they form an awesome possesion midfield that we can't compare to without him. I wish Dunivant would earn his starting spot back this year and start showing something, I think he would perform well in this system. Same with Gbandi, as I'm pretty sure he's not starting this year either. I know Salyer can play on the left maybe he'll show something by the end of the year? Who knows, but I'd like one of those three to pan out to give us some depth there.
Great stuff Riverdale - I read the lot and agreed with 98% of it. It also inspired me a little. As I too am bored beyond belief, I'll try and give an Englishman's perspective on the state of your Sah-ker pool (I have been following since '99 and although its hard to do so from over here, it becomes more and more enjoyable) Tactics I really like the way Arena see's games and his process of selecting players. To me this is one of the USMNT's stronger points right now and has been for some years. He's not afraid to experiment with players coming in at different positions than what they play each week, a concept not even considered by most coaches in the English game (example: the state of our left wing - "Sven! His name is Joe and he plays for Chelsea!") Ahem, anyways. If I we're an American I wouldn't be too bothered what shape midfield Bruce goes for as long as one of Claudio and JOB are in it. Shame there isn't a right-sided version of Convey to slot in at RB and get the whole overlaping wing-back thing really working as you guys have a few big fella's to aim at up top. I can't see the original post so I'll just rant about some players. You summed up the 'keeper situation exactly how I would, although I wouldn't have keller as much of a lock. Paul Robinson's probable arrival at White Hart Lane will no doubt see Kasey have to weigh up his options, and I can see him maybe signing for a newly-promoted team, consequently being under the kosh all season and coming of worse for wear. Those are a few maybe's, I know, but at times this season it has seemed that for every amazing save he has conceded a soft goal to go with it. The same can be said for Brad, but one has to take into consideration that both Blackburn's and Spurs' defending this season has been some of the worst the Premiership has seen. I'd go for Howard in 2006, and in any game that United will let him away for, even friendlies. Everyone knows he can do it. Its a testement to the goalkeeping pool that the likes of Joe Cannon, Zach Thornton and Nick Rimando will almost certainly never get a look in as all are decent GKs. Cartman's stats prove he is solid, Brown is as reliable, its just unlucky for them. Can we have Adin Brown? I'd swap the U.S. Darius Vassell for Adin Brown. You guys don't know how hard it is to sleep the night before a game when you know that David James will be mainly responsible for stopping the bad guys scoring! I'm not sure about proclaiming Pope a cert. Qualifying yes, but by the time 06 swings aroundwe may just find that Eddie has lost half a yard when he really doesnt have it to lose. Again, I'm nay-saying, but these things happen and they are massive factors on guy's game. I don't know if any of you know who Des Walker is (Nottingham Forrest & England, late 80s to mid 90s, looks a bit like Steve Harvey), but the change in the law about passing it back to your keeper combined with the loss of a yard and he was finished at international level. We're talking about a World Cup - France may be in the same group! At the moment, Eddie is solid and thats great. The striker situation could get awkward. No-one has taken it by the scruff of the neck which is surprising considering McBride's time as an international may be over in 2 years time. I'd rather look towards Buddle, Johnson and Eskandarian (dare I say Quaranta? No, I don't think I dare....) than hope that Jovan, Wolff and Razov have a word with themselves. I don't think Ive seen either of those three play like they mean it when in white, but then again I dont get to see much stuff do I. Edson Buddle should play on the strength of his name alone, as should Logan Pause and Zarineth Kevan. Pause kinda looks like a player that could make a push as his physical attributes make him stand out.....but I think I am just trying to find one that you missed now. You missed CJ brown aswell! The guy is a defensive animal! Anyways. That took up half an hour. Sorry for the hi-jack. I'll just be happy if things keep going the way it looks as though they are going. The talent pool seems to get that little bit bigger every time a squad is announced and, although I dont agree with several of Mr Arena's selections at the back (Dan Califf, Rich Kotschauwhatever, Gregg Berhalter and Greg Vanney aren't International defender's no mattter how many times you pick them, and I wasn't too keen on Llamosa or Fraser either........) Why do I even care? Who knows........
A lot of people keep trying to promote him there for the same reasons that you are. But Riverdale Goalie is right, there is too big a drop off from him to our his replacement in the midfield. JOB is our best possession midfielder and probably only behind Donovan as an attacker (when Donovan plays like he did this week). Overall, he is probably our best midfielder. So to move him to left back in order to get our 4th or 5th best midfielder on the field just doesn't make sense. The second and primary reason is that JOB doesn't want to do it and since he is one of the most skilled players we have, Bruce is still going with his preference. I don't for a minute believe that Bruce would go that route if he felt we had an equally viable option in the midfield and JOB was our best option at LB. But right now that's not the case.
Pope is only 29 and will still only be 31 in 2006. That's still a good age for defenders, particularly when paired with guys who have a lot of speed like Bocanegra or Gibbs. I think through 2006, he's still a lock for a starter barring injury (which is also a lot to say). I think that Jovan and Wolff will probably see at least a few qualifiers if their club form is good. I suspect that Razov is done. When we get to the 2nd round of qualies and 2006, I don't see any of these 3 making the final roster. Logan Pause doesn't even start on his MLS club team when everyone is healthy. I don't see him breaking into the National team anytime soon. CJ Brown is playing stellar this year, but I think he's no longer an international quality defender. The younger guys are stepping up and taking over his spots.
Thanks for the compliments. To be honest with you, I feel more comfortable with Cherundolo than Convey as he can get forward into the attack and deliver a good cross and is able defensively. Bobby may be able to make more enterprising runs forward, but I'm not sure where he stands defensively compared to the top players of the world. About goalkeeper depth, I recognize Keller may have a fight on his hands if Robinson is signed next year, but Friedel isn't being pushed by anyone and knowing Arena, he will go with experience first for qualifiers. I expect Howard to move up along the way, assuming he reclaims the starter's position for good at Man U, and eventually to be the starter come 2006, but there are a lot of factors to consider between now and then. I know about Walker but don't know if I've ever seen him play outside of highlight videos, and from what I've seen, I'm willing to bet he never was the athlete Pope is. If Pope stays healthy, he should be fine through 2006, he's still not even that old yet. The good thing is, however, that we finally have some viable replacements for him where we don't loose much quality, which is something we never had before. BTW I seem to remember Des Walker being linked with the Metros a few years ago...just a useless tidbit of information As for strikers, the guys I figure are the most ready to move up to the next level and get regular playing time for the nats are, in this order: Twellman/Casey, Noonan, Buddle, and then Johnson. I used to have Buddle rated higher but after watching Colombus the other day, Cunningham was far and away their best player, and he may be earning himself a look back in with the nats. There is a lot of talent in the above mentioned players and I expect at least one of them to really assert themselves on the position during the course of qualifying. And I know you were just having fun with names when you mentioned Zarineth Kevan and I consider myself pretty knowledgeable on the player pool and I can't seem to recall his name. Maybe you made him up? I figure he could be in one of the youth pools as we have some great names there, I suggest you head over to the Youth National Teams board and check them out, really there's some classics. I thought you were harsh on a few of the defenders you mentioned. I believe Berhalter and Vanney still have a role to play, and Califf still has time to improve. I think C.J. Brown is a good emergency call up if we got hit by injuries like we did before the "Pisser in Sapprissa" (just coined that one) during the hex and could do a good job against most CONCACAF opponents. I don't think he has much of a future with the nats besides that however.