Judging by St. Lucia performance in the first round I think they have a good chance of beating Panama. What do you guys think?
They've been my pick all along for an upset. They've got a team based primarily in the Trinidad Pro League, as well as a few who have played in weird leagues like Malaysia. Titus Elva and Earl Jean are the top forwards for them, and Sheldon Emmanuel and Sean Kirton are two pro defenders. Obviously they key is to limit their lose in Panama to a small amount. Supposedly they'll be playing some games in Venezuela to prepare.
Is it really even an upset though? In the newest World Rankings, St. Lucia is #126, Panama is #127...
Eh....Panama got a bye for advancing to the semifinal round last time around, which is more important than any silly friendly loses. St. Lucia has also played a lot more games than Panama has in the last 4 years.
While I agree that I'd favor Panama, if the FIFA site is accurate, Panama has been more active over the past four years, playing 41 matches overall (none in 2002?) and 13 in the past two years (including Costa Rica, Paraguay, 2 x Honduras, Bolivia, Guatemala), while St. Lucia has played 20 in four years (only 2 in 2003?) and 12 in the last two (including 2 x Jamaica, T&T, Haiti). Looks like the numbers and strength-of-schedule edge go to Panama. It's true that Panama made the semifinal round last cycle, but I'm not sure how much credit to give them for that, since in that round they got 1 draw (at home against Canada) and 5 losses and had a -15 goal difference (1 for/16 against). Panama advanced to that stage by beating lowly Nicaragua twice (currently ranked 177 in the world, at the time of the games ranked 189 and 191) and splitting with Honduras. So, in all of qualifying last time, they got two results of any note: a 0:0 home draw with Canada in the semifinal round and a 1:0 home win over Honduras in April 2000 (they lost the away leg 1:3). Hard to know how much credit to give them for one win four years ago, but it looks like it was against a representative Honduran side. I took a quick look at the Honduran XI that day and compared it to the two sides that started against the US in the final round and found that six of the guys who started against Panama started in at least one game against the US (three started twice). So, I guess it puts them ahead of St. Lucia, who went out on penalties to Surinam last WC cycle, and whose best results in the past two years are a 2:1 win over Haiti (a GC qualifier in Jamaica in 3/03) and a 1:0 win at Trinidad (a GC qualifier in 11/02).
Panama beat St. Lucia by a combined 13-1 in the Olympic qualifiers...obviously that's not a great comparison because it's U-23 teams and both matches were in Panama, but it does say something about the relative levels of play in the two countries. This series will be closer but Panama probably wins by 3-5 goals. Panama lost 1-0 on a very late goal at home to Mexico in the last WCQ...for teams at this level that is a strong result.
St. Lucia is not going to beat Panama come on guys, Panama may not be all that but they are better than #126 in the world they have ok players and a good goalie in Escober they will win 3-0
Yes, and Panama dominated the game, too. I think the loss took a lot out of them emotionally, because they pretty much collapsed after that. My heart says St. Lucia, but my head says Panama, maybe 5-2 on aggregate. But if Panama takes them lightly, they'll have trouble.
The drew Canada 0-0 at home the next week, then lost their last four on the road--they'll need to travel better this time.
They may also need to play better at home. I don't know if anyone else out there saw the 2003 Copa UNCAF--if not, you were lucky, because it was probably the worst tournament in the history of soccer. Almost every game was unwatchable; only Guatemala, who finished second, showed any kind of style. Costa Rica won it with four 1-0 wins and a 1-1 draw. Anyway, Panama, hosting the tournament, figured to do OK. But they were totally flat. They won 1, drew 1, and lost 3, even managing to lose to Nicaragua (although they dominated the game). As for recent form on the road, they played back-to-back games in Cuba in March: 1) drawing 1-1 in what the papers described as a boxing match, not a soccer game; 2) losing 0-3 in a more conventional encounter. A couple of weeks ago they got an 0:0 result at Honduras, although that was a purely home-based Honduran side, and by all accounts the game was pretty arid. St. Lucia had a great run in the qualifiers for the most recent Gold Cup, with wins over Trinidad & Tobago and Haiti, but they also lost to Martinique and got stomped by Jamaica. They've been mostly uninspired in recent friendlies, although their latest result was their best, a 1-1 draw at St. Vincent and the Grenadines. I think if they're in top form, and Panama is off balance, they have a chance--but as I said, my head says Panama.
St lucys has no chance against panama at all....panama is a latin country, we have soccer in our blood...
Looks like the St. Lucia FA is collapsing as we speak... http://www.stluciastar.com/monday/monApril19-04/news3.htm#news2
Can someone put the starting lineup for this sunday game for St. Lucia, or at least the nearest lineup, and their respective clubs.?????
This was the roster i put in the other thread: St. Lucia ------------ Deterville ---------------- Emmanuel-----E. Joseph------ Kirton ----------- Mark--------------- Skeete----- Valcin ------Tobie -----------V. Joseph-------------- ------ Elva------- Jean The majority of their players, such as Earl Jean, Elijah Joseph, Valencius Joseh, and Sean Kirton play or have played in the Trinidad Premier League. Titus Elva has played in Malaysia i think, but I'm not sure where he is now. Skeete is a young prospect that is supposed to be quite good.