So when are we out mathematically?

Discussion in 'Columbus Crew SC' started by Eggy, Oct 4, 2003.

  1. Eggy

    Eggy New Member

    May 28, 1999
    CBUS
    Just curious.
     
  2. MD_05

    MD_05 New Member

    Oct 18, 2002
    Ohio
    right now, we're 5 points back of NE with 3 games left for both teams.
     
  3. MD_05

    MD_05 New Member

    Oct 18, 2002
    Ohio
    sorry, 4 points back with three to play.
     
  4. The Truth Commission

    Mar 29, 2000
    Parts Unknown
    Might be a while, if we could knock off Chicago next Friday and NE beats DC, we'd be 3 back of DC with 2 to play, and would have the head-to-head tie-breaker if we win at RFK on 19 Oct (my birthday).
     
  5. CrewDust

    CrewDust Member

    May 6, 1999
    Columbus, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    NE's magic number is 5.
     
  6. Grouchy

    Grouchy Member+

    turkey bacon with swiss
    Apr 18, 1999
    Canal Winchester
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We are 4 points back of NE so over the next three we need either:

    2 more wins than NE
    1 win and 2 ties more than NE (they would have to lose all 3)
    1 win and 1 tie more than NE, plus 8 more goals

    So no, we aren't mathematically eliminated yet.

    Realistically, the Crew need to sack up big time and pray and hope NY/NJ fields a team against NE and takes both from them (so realistically, unless things improve greatly, we are out).
     
  7. Grouchy

    Grouchy Member+

    turkey bacon with swiss
    Apr 18, 1999
    Canal Winchester
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting item from Matchnight forums:

     
  8. The Truth Commission

    Mar 29, 2000
    Parts Unknown
    To mention, we can't get the pain over soon enough. No matter what results take place next weekend, the Crew will STILL go into Round 29 mathematically alive.

    If (when) we lose to Chicago, we'll be on 32. Since DC plays NE, that would mean depending on the result, these are the possible standings:

    DC 41, NE 36, CLB 32
    DC 39, NE 37, CLB 32
    NE 39, DC 38, CLB 32

    If New England wins, that means we'd have to beat DC and Chicago in the last two matches, and DC would also have to lose to Kansas City in Round 30.

    It's bad enough that we suck, but now I have to bite my nails for at least another 13 days. :-(
     
  9. Grouchy

    Grouchy Member+

    turkey bacon with swiss
    Apr 18, 1999
    Canal Winchester
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Out of the next three games we need to:
    • win two more games than NE
    • win one more and tie two more games than NE (and they lose all three)
    • win one more, tie one more games, and score 7 more goals than NE (and they lose all three)
    • win two more and tie one more games than DC (and they lose all three)
    • win two more more games and eight more goals than DC (and they lose all three)
    Remaining schedules:

    NE -4 points -6 goals
    10/11 DC at NE
    10/18 NE at MET
    10/25 MET at NE

    DC -6 points -7 goals
    10/11 DC at NE
    10/19 CLB at DC
    10/25 KC at DC
     
  10. Foosinho

    Foosinho New Member

    Jan 11, 1999
    New Albany, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The fact is, it's gonna take a miracle no matter what. With Williams and Denton already out next weekend, I say we just throw in the towel on this season and sit a number of starters. We need to look at the roster and decide who we want around next season, because I think a coaching change alone isn't going to get it done.
     
  11. Grouchy

    Grouchy Member+

    turkey bacon with swiss
    Apr 18, 1999
    Canal Winchester
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think the loss of Williams and Denton will make one bit of difference. Akwari will go in for Williams and Denton will be replaced by Oughton, Chacon or Garcia.

    With the current state of the squad I don't see us winning more than one game out of the remaining three, that being the game vs. the Fire scrubs at home.

    I'm sure Burgess could make a Pythagorus(sp?) joke about our mathematical playoff chances right now...
     
  12. MD_05

    MD_05 New Member

    Oct 18, 2002
    Ohio
    yeah, our lineup next week will probably be our strongest. a backline of hejduk-akwari-clark-mccarty is much better than the crap we've been playing with.
     
  13. DGA57

    DGA57 Member

    Jun 17, 2002
    Dublin, OH
    Based on today's article, we need to finish ahead of NE because they own the tie-breaker over us.
     
  14. Raoul

    Raoul New Member

    Sep 19, 1999
    Downtown Dublin
    I think the team that lost to NE when up 2 goals with 25 mins to play and tied a DC team with 4-5 starters out and a rent-a-keeper wiil protect your nails. Sorry partner, any NE win is the LAST nail in the coffin - we don't even control our own destiny anymore. We're 500' from the end of the runway at 120KTS, the antiskid cycling and the tailhook just missed the last wire Sat. night.

    Lock your shoulder harness, we're goin' for a 5 month ride.
     
  15. The Truth Commission

    Mar 29, 2000
    Parts Unknown
    Wrong- one win over the Fire and one win over D.C., coupled with one other D.C. loss, puts the Crew in the playoffs. Doesn't matter what New England does.

    ANDRULIS OUT NOW
     
  16. Jambon

    Jambon Member

    Mar 3, 2000
    Austin, TX
    I hope the Hunts take a long hard look at the importance they put on coaching for their teams in the off-season. If you look at Columbus and Dallas, the cupboard is hardly bare in terms of talent, yet they both are underperforming miserably, especially Columbus.

    Compare that to the way real coaches can take outright scrubs or rookies and make them look like legitimate players in Chi, NY, or SJ, and hopefully someone will realize soon that coaching is not an area you "save" money on.
     
  17. Grouchy

    Grouchy Member+

    turkey bacon with swiss
    Apr 18, 1999
    Canal Winchester
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Since I can't edit my last post, I'll simply post the corrected, bleak outlook...

    Out of the next three games we need to:
    • win two more games than NE (they must lose two or more)
    • win one more and tie two more games than NE (they must lose all three)
    • win two more and tie one more games than DC (they must lose all three)
    • win two more games and score eight more goals than DC, tie DC in DC, (they must lose their other two games)
    Remaining schedules:

    NE -4 points (2 wins, 1 loss, 1 tie vs Crew)
    10/11 DC at NE
    10/18 NE at MET
    10/25 MET at NE

    DC -6 points -7 goals (1 win, 1 loss, 1 tie vs Crew, 1 game TBD)
    10/11 DC at NE
    10/19 CLB at DC
    10/25 KC at DC
     
  18. kevbrunton

    kevbrunton New Member

    Feb 27, 2001
    Edwardsburg, MI
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If you can play well against Chicago, then you're not out of it. You have at least one thing going in your favor -- New York will desparately want to beat New England twice and try to at least knock them down to 4th, if not out of the playoffs. As things stand right now with NE in 3rd, NY & NE would match up in the first round. I think if they have anything to do with it, they'll not want to play NE 4 times in a row.

    As for Chicago, I think it's going to come down to whether they think the Supporters' Shield is something worth shooting for. If so, they won't play subs against you in the last 2 games -- they'll be playing the full squad. You get a break this week as we have Ralph and Whitfield out due to a National Team commitment and a suspension. But you are missing Oughton for the same reason.

    Good luck. Personally, I prefer the scenario where you guys climb to 3rd, NE drops to 4th and DCU is out. Just like NY wouldn't want to play NE 4 straight times, the Fire would probably prefer not to have to play the Crew in 4 out of 5.
     
  19. Grouchy

    Grouchy Member+

    turkey bacon with swiss
    Apr 18, 1999
    Canal Winchester
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  20. Foosinho

    Foosinho New Member

    Jan 11, 1999
    New Albany, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With purely random results.

    However, results are not random. I'd put our chances at far less than 10%.
     
  21. Raoul

    Raoul New Member

    Sep 19, 1999
    Downtown Dublin
    Yeah, we're not good enough to beat random. If you run the probability weighted for our records we would be well below average.

    I just hope we remain somewhat respectable and need those "World Class Goals" to beat us. The guys are playing for pride now.
     

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