Haven't been around here much, but if you recognize my name from BA or PL you'll know I keep a database of big underdogs...meaning, sides playing against favorites of under 2.00. I keep seeing people say that this WC has been crazily unpredictable, but at least from my perspective, it has been very, very predictable to this point. The record of all underdogs in my WC database going back to 1998 (not counting today's matches) is 32-52-142. That's 14% wins, 23% draws. So far in 2018 it's 2-3-17, 9% wins and 14% draws. KO rounds tend to throw up more upsets (particularly draws), but even still. The favorites are dominating so far. Some of the matches people express surprise about aren't in my database, like Croatia beating Argentina. Even if the Argies had been 1.98 instead of 2.02, though, that's not that big of a surprise. The third round of group play is where dogs in the range of 3.5 to 4.99 get outright wins. At the moment that means Denmark, Senegal, Panama, but it depends on where the odds close. At more than 5.00, draw would be the likelier play.
These two days of upsets bring 2018 ahead of previous years...Korea would have been marked as a draw possibility based on my numbers, and it'd kill you being on them to draw at 5.00 just for them to win outright at 13.00.
This is a World Cup where the previous World Cup champions, Germany, exited the group stage finishing 4th in their group! Predictable? Even knowing that all UEFA World Cup champs (meaning 4 of the last 5 World Cup champions) had exited the tournament at the group stage in the World Cup to follow (i.e., France in 2002, Italy in 2010, Spain in 2014, and now Germany in 2018), for this to happen to Germany (a side that had never failed to advance from the group stage since any of were alive), and for them to finish last after losing to South Korea, must be counted among both of the greatest upsets and biggest surprises in World Cup history. The other results would not qualify as historically significant upsets, but they have often been surprising and ran counter to what bookies had predicted and how pundits were predicting things. In this regard, Colombia's loss to Japan was certainly against all odds. The 3:0 score between Argentina and Croatia was unexpected. The 1:0 loss by Germany to Mexico was an upset and a surprise. The fact that 4 Asian teams managed at least 1 win and most of them finished better than 4th place in their groups was surprising to many. Aside from Germany's loss to South Korea, the lackluster form shown by Spain, Portugal, France against Iran and Morocco and Australia and Peru, and the narrow wins or draw (in the case of Iran-Portugal) would have surprised pundits. The fact that Russia started out with 2 big wins against Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while neither were upsets, was itself somewhat surprising too. There have been plenty of surprises in that sense. What has not been as surprising, or at least as interesting, is the composition of the teams in the R16. Other than Germany, the other favorites basically qualified. Uruguay and hosts Russia in Group A were the real favorites, even if less was expected from Russia (or maybe more from their opponents) than what they showed in their first 2 games. Spain and Portugal ended up advancing at the end in Group B, even if Portugal was inches away in the last second to be eliminated by Iran and even if Morocco seemed to have played the best football in this group over the 3 matches. France and Denmark advancing from Group C was no real surprise either, regardless that neither did it in style. In Group D, despite Argentina nearly getting eliminated, they ended up joining Croatia in the R16 and that would have been the bookies pick too. In Group E, there were no real surprises with the 2 favorites in that group, Brazil and Switzerland, advancing and the same in Group G with Belgium and England advancing. Group H is still to be decided while Group F (with Germany out) was the real surprise. That one of Mexico or Sweden would advance, however, was expected even in Group F.
My view is that it is a quite usual World Cup on European soil. 1998 in France and 2006 in Germany 5 UEFA teams in each case failed to advance. It's again 5. Germany's exit is the only real surprise. If Colombia fails to advance today I consider it the second major negative surprise. I always had doubts on Poland. Their exit can't be regarded as a real suprise. Especially not in the historical context with Poland flopping in all their last World Cup they entered. If Senegal fails to advance it will mark a huge step backwards for CAF. The last time without a CAF team advancing was in 1982.
I agree that if Colombia fail to advance, it would be a upset, except I wouldn't call it a negative one Unlike you, I am not really a fan of Colombia advancing and prefer to see Senegal and Japan in the next round. Agree with all your other points. If Senegal fail to advance, this will be a disastrous World Cup for CAF. Not only they won't have a side in the R16 for the first time since 1982, but until now, the only CAF sides to win a match have been Nigeria (against Iceland) and Senegal (against Poland). Only 2 wins, while Egypt has already finished the tournament pointless. A fate that only one of Panama/Tunisia are still in risk of suffering.
Your records are shit. Draws? big deal. This sport is full of them. You have 14 percent wins which is ******** all. Make your predictions first, actual games, not saying upsets will occur, they always do. Then you would have got respect. I've got a good idea though, whoever makes the semi finals and whoever wins the final, I'll come on here and say I told you so. Hell, I'll do it after the completion of the 2nd round and quarter finals too. Stay tuned!
After all the sh!+ talkers id love to see Messi get Ronaldo in the qfinals so they can finally decide whos the best. Problem of course is france is in the way... who has the worst defense... shakey umtiti vs nvm cant even name them besides rojo and otamendi... Defense france Midfield goes to france. Expect kante to be all over messi. Offense tie Intangibles.... i want to win this its my life long dream... argentina
Mexico vs Brazil... they have been battling this out since London 2012... Ochoa has Brazil's # But Brazil will edge them. The win over Germany was the dog bark that woke everyone up to Mexico. England will be here cause they couldnt stop scoring lol Colombia feels good here... though id love to see Brazil in the qf vs a CAF team in Senegal
Spain vs russia in moscow Russia outworks them... iniesta's tires are flat... spain dont want it enough... Croatia slowly and methodically outmuscles denmark Sweden and switzerland destroy each other but sweden has something to prove Japan and belgium wind down the group.
Poland not advancing in group H, despite being seeded, and not only not advancing but finishing last in group (it all points to that) doesn't classify as an upset, too?? even if they get 0 points?
Not for me, because I didn't really expect Poland to necessarily qualify. To me, it was always a pretty open group. But as they usually do, Poland ended up with 3 points in the game that didn't matter to them.
No surprises so far except for Germany, but everyone could see the writing on the wall after Euro 2016. 12 years with the same coach could kill any team. No African teams in R16, 1 Asian team, 1 CONCACAF. There will be no surprises at all in R16, all scraps will be cast away - RUS, URU, COL, JPN, ARG, DEN, MEX.
I lost my group winners bet because of Germany. I could have won more than 21.600€ with an insert of 600€. I had Uruguay, Spain, Croatia, Brazil, Germany and Colombia to top their groups. I should have went for France instead of Germany. Odds were roughly the same. This World Cup was perfectly predictable in most parts other than Germany's embarrasment. Even that was not completely unpredictable due to the curse of the title holder but everbody was saying come on it's Germany. I'm so angry at this German team. Sorry I know my bets aren't necessarily directed to the topic but you have to get rid of this anger somehow.
I think we are due 1 or 2 more surprises in the round of 16. Also I think we will have some surprises in the quarters. Germany not being in the Semis is a huge surprise as they have been at least to the semis since 1998 and at least to the quarters much longer than that. Also no African team in the round of 16 is huge since there has been at least 1 since 1982.
Yes France were always going to get top but 99 percent of people thought Germany would too. There is nothing you can do. Even if you won the bet you're not going to come out ahead long term. You would just raise the stakes not only for the euro and world cup but club football/Champions League too. Put it this way, you bet 1000 Euros for every euro and world cup until you die { hopefully you live a long life } You're not going to profit out of that 21,600. As mentioned, how much have you already lost doing bets in your life time? Even if you won here, I doubt you're ahead. Again, you would lose it not just on world and euro's but on domestic football and Champions League etc. Football is to be enjoyed but not bet on. Maybe one in 1000 could succeed long term. Perhaps one in 10,000. But the odds are always against you. There will always be a Germany type performance when you least expect it like here.
I used to bet on just everything. Now I bet only on UEFA EURO and World Cup all 2 years. I know that I lost a lot money with betting so far.. These 21,600€ would have put me ahead by miles though. I would have stopped betting then for life-time most likely. I didn't used to bet with such high stakes. You said it there's nothing I can do. Life goes on. If France wins the World Cup I can still go out with a very good profit out of this and make up for all my losses. Otherwise I will have another try in the next EURO/ World Cup.
Yes I understand my friend. But even if you won, as much as you'd like to believe it, you wouldn't just stop. Anyway I'm just trying to be helpful don't think I'm having a go at you Good luck with France. I feel they have a big shot at winning it