We do pretty damn well against Honduras in the hex. Beat them there 2-1 in 2001; beat them there 3-2 in 2009. Lost only once in the hex in this century, the 2-1 loss to kick off the 2013 hex. (They didn't qualify for the 2005 hex.) The much bigger point remains, though--we want the two teams who stand the best chance of challenging us for 3d in the hex to accumulate as few points as possible. Here's to a PAN/HON tie.
Either way, seems the most likely scenario is that by the end of September we should secure at least a playoff spot.
I want this team to get 18 points; ten in the next four games. Two home wins, beat T&T away, tie Hondo away. CR will be tough, we could tie them. But we could also very well beat Hondo. My hope is that the Azteca tie gave us confidence and a sense of unity that will see us blaze through the rest of the hex.
I'd really prefer to get it locked up by the end of game 9. I would think 3 wins in those 3 games would do that, but would 7?
Not necessarily; that is, there are scenarios where that would not be the case, so at this point it's not possible to say that we guarantee qualification with 7 points in three games. If you imagine the most unfavorable scenario for us getting 7 points in the next three games (including a tie at home to Panama), it looks like this: Mex 18 Pan 16 CR 15 USA 15 Not the most likely outcomes, but mathematically possible and does not put us anywhere near locking up qualification. Even if you take away the most unlikely assumption (PAN beats MEX in the Azteca), you're still left with Mex 21 CR 15 USA 15 Pan 13 And that doesn't do it either. But a lot of this depends on how other teams do, so if we take care of business we should be fine. Hard to lock things up early when you shit the bed in the first two hex games, would be the lesson.
We can revisit this thread with a lot more visibility when we see the result of Pan v Honduras on Tuesday.
It's hard to really hope for any result outside of CR an PAN wins. Their opposition aren't easy but they lack quality up top.
In that situation USA would qualify with a win at Trinidad and Tobago because Costa Rica ends at Panama. If Costa Rica and Panama win tomorrow, Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago won't have much chance at qualifying. It would leave Costa Rica, Panama, and USA in a battle for second through fourth.
Looking at Panama, we're as of now 1 point ahead of them which is actually fairly significant. In the September window we play Costa Rica at home and then play at Honduras. Panama goes to The Azteca and then hosts T&T. It's unlikely they cut into that 1 point lead in that window and if anything I think it's more likely we expand that lead. That means that if we beat Panama in Orlando we'd be guaranteed to finish ahead of them without needing any kind of result in T&T. In fact if we can pick up 6 points in the next 2 games, we'd likely only need a tie in that game. As for Honduras, we're currently 3 points ahead of them. 2 of their next 3 are on the road while 2 of ours are at home. If we can get any type of result in San Pedro Sula, we're likely to also grow that lead and worst case if it stays at 3, we have an 11 goal differential edge on them and they play Mexico on the final matchday. The point of all this is, I think we'll qualify with a game to spare.
My answer to this question before was based on coming up with any scenario where 7 points would not do it, and there still is at least the one I described. But what is the likely outcome for being able to lock up qualification in round 9? Start with this: we play Panama at home in round 9. They are by far the most likely team that we'll compete with for the third and final spot. So assume that all we care about for now is finishing ahead of Panama in the hex. Then if we're one point ahead of them in the second to last game, we can clinch qualification with a draw (by the same token, if we're three points ahead we can clinch with a win or draw, but that's a less likely and more complex scenario). Thanks to the glorious draw between Panama and Honduras last night, we remain a point ahead of them. So if we can match their results in the next two games, we'll go into round nine with a chance to clinch the hex with a win at home. So what are the likely outcomes for Panama that we'll need to match? They will probably get three points: they play at Mexico where a loss is likely, and then host T&T where a win is likely. In my opinion, it's more likely that they drop points at home to T&T than that they get any points in Azteca, but both are conceivable. So if Panama is likely to be on 10 points when we meet them in the US, we need to at least win one of the next two games to be in a position to clinch against them at home. Winning against Costa Rica at home or Honduras away are both tough but do-able goals. But two draws would not be enough to lock up qualification with a win v Panama; it would actually put us even with them in the most likely scenario. Let's say we win two games, then what? We'd be on 14 points with Panama on 10. In that case, a draw or a win would clinch the hex. And let's say Panama really eats it and both loses to Mexico and draws T&T, giving them 8 points in round 9. In that scenario we'd be in pole position to clinch if we got just a draw in our two games. But let's hope we don't need to rely on Panama screwing up. Four points in the next two games--a very reasonable goal though not a guaranteed one--will put us ahead of where we need to be to (very likely) lock up the hex with a game to spare.
I believe the reason Panama is only 19% is precisely because it is expected they would lose the playoff to the Asiatic team. I concur.
Panama will not win at Azteca. There's way too much militating against them. We should beat Costa Rica in Sep but if we don't, we will not lose to Panama at home for sure in October anyway.
To add to that, other Concacaf teams seem to have done better, historically, than we have. (At least that is the impression I have...I'm not going to go back and analyze results but I think I remember CR, one or more Caribbean nation and possibly another Central American team getting results in Azteca during the hex.) that being said, Mexico is not the same team as they were in the last hex and after the sting of dropping points in Azteca to us I suspect that Honduras will have a more difficult time this go around.
Costa Rica was the first team to beat Mex at Azteca in the hex, 2-1 back in 2001. Last cycle Mexico was an embarrassment at home, losing to Honduras and tying us, Jamaica, and Costa Rica. Their only home win was against Panama, and that required a winner in the 85th minute.