I love that they refer to his announcement as "ending months of speculation." I'm speculating that the sun will set here today.
With all the months and months of LeBron 24/7/365 would I be wrong in taking Carmelo Anthony ahead of him in the draft?
The NCAA could have shown you the answer to speculation years ago -- in their airplane hangers full of evidence that would have forbid LeBling to ever step foot on a college campus.
David Aldridge said today that he "could see a few of the teams in the lottery taking Anthony over James" - if they got the magic ping pong ball.
The reason why James is an absolute lock to go #1 isn't because he's the best player in the draft (though he might be), it's because the team that wins the lottery is going to sell hundreds of thousands more tickets and millions more in merch than the team did in the pre-LeBron days. It doesn't matter if Anthony or Milicic ends up in the long-term being the better player; right now LeBron is by far the best financial investment. About the only thing that could go wrong for the team that picks LeBron is if he pulls a Len Bias and destroys himself before they get a chance to put tickets on sale. He could stink the joint up in November, but by then all of the tickets will be sold.
No, you would be absolutely right. Carmelo Anthony is a better player right now than James, and Anthony is only a year older at 19. Whereas Anthony has proven he's the real deal by leading his team to the NCAA championship, James is playing against 5 foot 5 white boys who, frankly, have trouble dribbling a basketball when nobody is guarding them. If I have the number one pick, absolutely, I go with Anthony. And, obie's comment about teams drafting James to sell tickets is absurd. If the guy turns out to be a dud you ain't selling tickets for long...NBA teams sell tickets by winning games. Scouts generally think James is a can't miss prospect, that's why they'll pick him. For my money, though, Anthony is better now, proven on a bigger stage, and has just as high an upside as James can have.
Then explain this, from USA Today: Or explain why the Wizards sold out every game this season. The NBA, more than any other league, is dependent on marquee players to market the product. LeBron will be the most marketable player in the league next season. And the person who ultimately makes the draft decision is the owner, not the GM or coach. Given who's in the best slots for the lottery (Cleveland, Denver, Atlanta), none of those owners can pass up that opportunity. The difference in scouting reports between LeBron, Milicic and Anthony seems to be marginal, and given that, the owner & GM have to look at economics. Here's my prediction, and Ian, feel free to call me on it: whichever team wins the LeBron lottery (provided it's not a team like the Knicks, which doesn't need a boost) will add at least 5,000 people to their season ticket base before the season starts AND they'll be on national TV (ABC / ESPN / espn2 / TNT) more times than 3/4 of the rest of the league. If that team takes Anthony (who I love as a player and think could be the best in the draft), they won't get nearly that bump. Guaranteed money now is much better to any owner than speculative money later.
Yes, his first year will be a big draw. But if LeBron is a bust, his hype will die down. He won't be selling any ticket in 2 to 3 years. Would you see a game because of Joe Smith???? If Carmelo Anthony becomes the real deal, his team will sell out for the next 10 years even if they get nothing in his rookie season. It is a long-term investment. The Wizards sold out because of Michael Jordan.... and he has earned the respect of the fans. ‚ge will sell out if he comes back again. My biggiest sporting regrett in life is not to have seen MJ live in action. However, I have seen him playing cards in a LV casino.
I don't think that is true. There are still Kobe, Shaq, Iversen, etc. still out there. They are as close to guaranteed draws as possible. LeBron, as hyped as he is, is not a guaranteed draw. What happens if he is the 6th or 7th man (kinda the Jermaine O'Neal syndrome). TV rating go down the tube (so to speak). LeBron will get his unproven TV exposure, but nothing to surpase even Yo-Yao.
With teams like Cleveland, Atlanta, Denver, and Toronto all pushing towards sub-10,000 attendence averages and playing in shiny new (well, 10 years new for Cleveland) arenas, the owners are not interested in long-term success if a pre-condition of it is that they will have to sacrifice tens of millions of dollars for two or three years while people catch on that Anthony is winning games. Lebron completely flopping is unlikely, and the year in which he will do the least by design, his first, will be almost certainly sold out every night. That way when he begins to play every night and play well there will be reason for all those people who saw him as a gimmick his first year to come back and see him again. No GM of the four teams above can take anyone buy Lebron with the number one pick and keep their jobs for the rest of the upcoming season. Perhaps if a team on the edge of the lottery gets lucky they can take Anthony or Milicic for the last piece of their teams' immediate run to the playoffs, but the teams losing 50 and 60 games can't afford financially to pass up James.
Just FYI, the national schedule is set well before the season starts, so even if he tanks the Nuggets / Cavs increase will be guaranteed. Cavs this year = 0 Nuggets this year = 6 (same, interestingly, as Yao and the Rockets - have a big advantage as a Mountain Time Zone team, since ESPN & TNT need to fill doubleheaders with 10:30 EST start times) So again, here's my prediction: Whichever team takes LeBron #1 will be in the 75th percentile or above in national TV games next year. Also, we can stash these #s away for future reference when we talk about the "LeBron Effect": Cleveland avg attendance through 3/10/03 (most recent I can find): 11,003 Denver: 14,401 If somebody other than these two win it, I'll post the numbers so we can compare.
That was the point. There is nothing that says LeBron will be an increase in TV ratings. And to what detrimental effect will he have on draws like I mentioned. I have no doubt that who ever gets him will have an increase in TV time, but over the major draws and larger markets I doubt. Look at who is being mentioned here - Cleveland, Denver, Atlanta - not exactly major markets or exciting teams (al la San Antonio and Sacramento). TV exposure with increase due to LeBron, but not that much.
The prpblem surely is that whoever drafts LeBron will have him for three years whilst he actually learns to play at this level. Because he will be getting told all the time how he needs to work harder & improve he will not like his time there and as soon as possible he will bolt to another team where he will make a valuable contribution. Look at Kwame Brown for a perfect example.
Fair point, but in terms of LeBling vs Kwame - LeBron is already used to being a professional. He has been for the last 5 years. Kwame really was a child coming into the league - without as many spoils in his HS career. LeBron is a bit more familiar to the media pressure and bright lights. I think he'll adapt fine.
I'm counting on the Nuggets getting the first pick and choosing Milicic or squandering it in some other way... Their franchise hasn't proven they can do anything else right since Doug Moe left in the 80's. Even that blip of a playoff run (Dikembe and the Sonics), was just a blip. But, I'm not worried, the Nuggets magic ball won't drop and they will end up with a player that won't pan out until they trade him away for a washed-up has-been cancer like Marcus Camby...