Serbien Election & Kosovo Debate

Discussion in 'International News' started by Nico Limmat, Jan 20, 2008.

  1. Nico Limmat

    Nico Limmat Member+

    Oct 24, 1999
    Dubai, UAE
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    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7198481.stm
    What does the future hold for Serbia?
     
  2. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
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    A lot could happen. The Dutch and the Belgians are currently promising to use their veto power to keep Serbia out of the EU until Mladic is turned over to the ICTY (Karadzic is probably not in Serbia). I suspect that ordinary Serbs are less wrapped up in nationalist hysteria than some elements in the political sphere would like, but how people and the establishment react to Kosovo independence could dictate whether or not Serbia tries to reach out to the outside world or continues to turn inward.

    Also, in "Republika Srpska", Dodik and others have been making noise to the effect that if Kosovo is allowed to break away from Serbia, the RS should be able to break away from Bosnia. That kind of rhetoric only hampers efforts to normalize relations in Bosnia, and for regional stability and cooperation.
     
  3. Nico Limmat

    Nico Limmat Member+

    Oct 24, 1999
    Dubai, UAE
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    First reports state nationalist Nikolic has won but didn't reach the required 50%.

    That means a second round run-off between Tadic and Nikolic on Feb 3...
     
  4. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    Kosovo opens a case that a region instead of a state can claim for independance. So far, EU's policy is that anyone who wants to get away from Serb is OK, but no Serb minority can do the same. It is very likely will boost some ultra nationalist sentiment in Serbia and we may not too far away from a new session movement in Kosovo.
     
  5. aloisius

    aloisius Member

    Jul 5, 2003
    Croatia

    the former Yugoslav republics had a constitutional right to secede. if that wasn't the case they would have never been internationally recognized.


    Serbs in the other republics didn't have the right to secede from the republics.


    Kosovo is a special case . it was an autonomous territory within Serbia, but it also had its separate representation at the federal level. you could say it was almost a federal republic. still, from a strictly legal standpoint i would say that kosovo doesn't have a case for independence.

    but that's only the legal standpoint. in reality i don't see any good solutions.

    once kosovo declares independence, the remaining serbs in the north of the province will declare that they don't accept being ruled by that government.

    that's when it gets really messy. what happens when the kosovo government tries to implement its rule on the whole kosovo territory? it can get bloody very quickly. the nato forces will have to protect the Serbs but in doing that they'll antagonize the Albanians.

    if nato forces don't protect the kosovo serbs there will be huge protest in serbian cities forcing the goverment to send in the military.


    US and the bigger European countries ( Britain, France, Germany, Italy) will recognize kosovo once they declare independence while russia will oppose it and probably block its membership in the UN.


    returning kosovo to Serbia would most likely mean a new all out civil war, certainly if serbia was to try to establish its authority in the province.

    and even if you could incorporate kosovo back into Serbia peacefully that would mean that the serbian parliament would be 30-35% albanian, and in 20-30 years Serbs would become less than 50% of the population.

    do they really want that?
     
  6. Nico Limmat

    Nico Limmat Member+

    Oct 24, 1999
    Dubai, UAE
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    [​IMG]

    What about drawing the Kosovo border after the Serbien region and leaving the North as part of Serbia? Is that a feasible idea or am I being ignorant of other issues?
     
  7. aloisius

    aloisius Member

    Jul 5, 2003
    Croatia
    the Albanians won't accept that. They believe that nato and UN confirmed the borders of kosovo by administrating and occupying the area that is defined by the borders it had as a autonomous region within Yugoslavia.

    there are three municipalities in serbia proper bordering on kosovo with Albanian majority that might also rebel if the serbs in kosovo do it as well.
     
  8. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    For sure, all nation borders come from history are not fair and not sensible in many cases, but I would think this ethnic-soverignity nationalism is bad. Any drawing of a new border will cause so much bloodshed. Like the case in Kosovo. I would see EU also open a case for Kurdistan in Turkey, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, and not forget Chychen in Russia.

    And after so many years of bloody fighting even in a low intense of Northern Ireland and Basque. Then look on east side, Baluchistan of both Iran and Pakistan, Kashimir and Assam in India, Tamil in Sri Lanka, 19 ethnic groups in Burma, some in South Philipion, and Malaysia, etc. Not a good picture.
     
  9. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
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    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
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    It's not entirely unfeasible, but the general rationale against it is that Kosovo is a historically-defined geopolitical entity, just like Serbia, Bosnia, etc. The borders have been defined, to varying degrees of exactness, for quite some time. And keep in mind--Kosovo (despite nationalist rhetoric to the contrary) was conquered unilaterally by Serbia early in the last century. For all the talk about Kosovo being the "Serbian Jerusalem" we're really talking about a once-autonomous province (which has been Albanian-majority for several centuries) which was conquered and then colonized by its neighbor. Fundamentally, the Milosevic policy of imposing an apartheid-like police state in Kosovo was nothing new, but actually a revival of Serbian policy towards the province prior to the Titoist years, and especially prior to the formation of Yugoslavia (originally called the "Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes").

    More pragmatically, if the international community allowed Kosovo to be partitioned along ethnic lines, then it is much tougher to oppose any efforts by radicals in Republika Srpska to push for total partition of Bosnia, thus rewarding the RS leadership for the genocide of the 1990s, albeit somewhat belatedly.

    If I may editorialize, the question boils down to this: You've got to have borders somewhere, and so then you have to choose between using preexisting borders with some historical/political lineage and then using the resulting geopolitical unit as the basis of a citizenship-based national unit, or using collective groups of people (based on religion and ethnicity) as the basis of state-building, and attempting to separate each group from the other as "neatly" as possible. This second option is fundamentally opposed to any notion of the sanctity of individual liberty; civic nationalism and ethno-religious nationalism are fundamentally incompatible.

    PS Keep in mind that not all ethnic Kosovar Serbs live in the north; what happens to the rest of them (and other non-Albanian minorities) if you allow for an "ethnic partition" of the province? Where do they go? Keep in mind that Serbia doesn't want them; the fate of Kosovar Serbs who fled to Serbia during the NATO war was not good. They did not fit in, nobody wanted them, and the government couldn't wait to send them back.
     
  10. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
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    Yeah, I forgot about that. The Macedonian government most certainly would not appreciate the EU and the UN setting a precedent for ethnic partition in their neighborhood, either.
     
  11. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    I would say no border has a clear cut in the old world. Any new drawing of border needs to make sure all parties feel they get something. I would say that majority of Serbs may feel they get the short end of sticks in every partition deal so far. Right now, EU can play judge as they want, but when Serbian nationalism come in favor--we can wait for the election result, and let's few decades past by, then we may have next cycle of "correct the historic wrongdoing going on."
     
  12. Nico Limmat

    Nico Limmat Member+

    Oct 24, 1999
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    And that's the reason I brought it up. It would allow a re-elected Boris Tadic and his pro-western government to save some face in front of the Serbian public. If Nikolic gets elected then of course the point is moot. Regardless, after thinking about it some more I can definitely see the problem of drawing a border along ethnic lines in the region. It might create more problems than it solves.
     
  13. 96Squig

    96Squig Member

    Feb 4, 2004
    Hanover
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    They should give the region independence, but give the citizens living in Kosovo and in the regions living around it the choosing of nationality that has been practiced between Denmark and Germany since after WW2, and make no big problems for those living or working on either side of the border.
     
  14. Ismitje

    Ismitje Super Moderator

    Dec 30, 2000
    The Palouse
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    Too bad this guy isn't around to lead the "self-determination for ethnic minorities in Europe" discussions:

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    I would say just screw ethnic nationalism. Keep all the borders intact as what we have. Find other means to address cultural difference, tradition preservation, and develop a civil society that based on family and community rather than "tribes." Until one day, the national border is no longer that important (esp. in EU framework) instead of a soccer match, then do a Czech-Slovakia style split is OK.

    Here is a short film about Assam in India which illustrates the problem with such mind sides:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ApgM8cbxF8&feature=PlayList&p=4A712F2859EB9B7F&index=124
     
  16. aloisius

    aloisius Member

    Jul 5, 2003
    Croatia
    of course not every ethnic minority can have its state.

    that is not what the kosovo Albanians are basing their case on.

    they are basing it on kosovo's constitutional status within Yugoslavia and on repressive treatment they received under Serbian rule.
     
  17. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    Understand. The worry is that the hate and fighting will never stop.
     
  18. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
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    DC United
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    I have an idea -- why don't we (the US) just stay out of it?

    I mean, every group in Europe has a grievance against everyone else, usually the people in the next village. And ususally it is about a cow that was stolen in the 12th century. I am an American. I come from a place without a history, so the grievances and long memories just boggle my mind (and I was a history major, so I like to think in old memories).

    To be truthful, the Balkans in general are the ass end of Europe. It matters little to me who or how or why they are ruled. If the EU wants to play Empire, so be it. The whole region has nothing that effects me.

    I agree that Milosavic [sp?] was a bastard and the world is a better place that he is gone. But it has been almost 10 years now and the place still does not have self government. We made our contribution, I say we now let others decide how this plays out. And if Europe wants to go to war with Russia over Kosovo, I say good luck, it is none of our business.
     
  19. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
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    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
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    Are we in it?

    Anthony, really, you're better than this.

    1) You and I will both live to see this country achieve a quarter-milleneum [sp?]
    2) "Long memories" is a gross distortion of the process by which nationalists all over the world create historical myths to further their own agendas.

    I get that you libertarians like to think the world ends just past our borders, but I'm surprised an economic free-marketer like you falls for this Ron Paul/Pat Buchanon nonsense.

    It should have had it earlier; had we been more forceful and decisive in the beginning we wouldn't be here. Independence should have been settled years ago. But it is now. In the real world, sometimes international crises take longer than a news cycle to get resolved.

    Hey, we "made our contribution" in Iraq; maybe now we should let Iran, Syria, and Al Qaeda decide how that plays out.

    We invaded Kosovo, we helped set up autonomy. It was a US-led NATO action. Saying it's "none of our business" is the sort of irresponsibility that could make you very popular with the MoveOn.org crowd.
     
  20. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Big red --

    My main problem with how Bosnia and Kosovo played out is the fact that as long as we continue to carry Europe's water, they will not take their own security seriously. When the latest Balkan crisis began, the EU was jumping around shouting how it was their issue and they were going to deal with it. After several massacres, the EU leadership then began to whine that the US was doing nothing. If Europe wants to be a "superpower" they need to start by handling regional issues.

    This is also the reason I think it is time for NATO to be wound up, for most of our remaining bases in Europe to be shut down, and all of our remaining combat troops in Europe (other than a naval force in the Mediteranean) to be removed.

    And while I agree that US action was warranted in Kosovo and Bosnia to stop ethnic cleansing, the result of the past 10 years is that Serbs are being pushed out of Kosovo.

    I am aware of the world outside my country. I am more concerned about what happens in Latin America (for economic and immigration reasons), China (for political and economic reasons) and the Middle East (for economic reasons) than I am with what happens in Europe. I do not believe that the US should shut itself out of the rest of the world for the simple reason that it is impossible.

    I do however, support regional solutions to some problems. For example, I have no faith in the UN Darfur mission, I think an African mission, properly funded and supported would have been better (the previous African mission was done on the cheap, and hence doomed to fail).

    As for the issue of long memories, I know nationalists breed them. Yes, I hope to live to see America at 250 (provided my liver survives the Clinton Presidency or some terrorist does not gets hold of something that destroys Chicago). But America is a country that reinvents itself every generation or so. My family (and the families of most of my childhood friends) emmigrated here between 1900 and 1925. My wife's family emmigrated here in the 1950s. Something tells me the Bosnian woman who cleans my office everyday came here even later.

    We maybe it is better to say we have history, but not long memories. You have the occasional southerner who (half tounge in cheek) whines about Yankees burning Atlanta or a black politician bringing up slavery. But it is not the same.

    As for Iraq, I think we have a greater responsibility, but one that requires us at this point to quicken the pace when Iraqis can take full control of their government. We and al Qeada need to take our little war somewhere else.
     
  21. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    I would say the world is full of problems. Without superpower meddling, it is already a big mess. With it, probably more mess.

    One thing I don't like "moral" interventionism, is that it always has a double standard label on its back. Talking is very cheap, but the agenda of realpolitiks and economic interests are pretty obvious.
     
  22. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
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    Good post, and I realize I responded to you in haste. I don't think you and I are all the far apart, really--I think it was your tone I objected to rather than any specific content. Sorry about that.

    No doubt the Europeans dropped the ball in the 1990s. And it is time for them to start taking care of business within their own sphere. FWIW, I don't think we're really interfereing at all with domestic politics in Serbia, nor should we be. Personally, I think this whole issue would be a whole lot less heated had independence been resolved years ago. The international community shouldn't have allowed the Russians to drag it out.

    I have as little faith in the UN as you do; my problems with calling for an African-led force in Darfur is that it sounds suspiciously like the first world deciding that "we" shouldn't risk our troops to help black people. Please understand--I realize you are NOT saying this. But when we start telling "those people" to take care of "their own problems" we become a little less international, a little less cosmopolitan, a little less expansive, a little more provincial.

    I still say that "long memories" is a misconception, or at least a gross simplification. In the case of Serbia and Kosovo, the rhetoric about medieval ties and ancient hatreds is mostly a product of mid-19th Century nationalism; prior to that, Serbs didn't fret too much about having "lost" Kosovo, no matter what the nationalists say. And in Bosnia, the "ancient hatreds" were mostly from World War II; the civil war the ravaged Yugoslavia was brutal, but what caused those wounds to fester was the Titoist policy of pretending it never happened. Instead, everyone had to play along with the official history of the war, which pushed actual (and admittedly often biased or sectarian) memories of the period underground, where they were nursed and passed along behind closed doors among one's "own kind". Everyone knew the official history was a lie; when Tito's authority was gone there was no other alternate version of history available except the conspiratorial histories that nationalists had nurtured and tweaked for decades in semi-secrecy.

    As with so many other conflicts in foreign lands that our politicians don't want to deal with and therefore would prefer the public shy away from, it was convenient to talk about "ancient, intractable hatreds" in Bosnia, but the fact is that for the most part, armed conflict between Croats, Muslims, and Serbs was purely a 20th Century phenomenae, driven and instigated from outside the country. Bosnia's dirty little secret is that for much of the past 500 years "those people" got along just fine. Not in a holding-hands-and-singing-Kumbaiya sense, necessarily, but the world doesn't have to be perfect to be liveable.

    ----------

    All that said, I'll repeat my belief that we shouldn't have anything to do with Serbia's elections. I hope it goes well for that country's sake--I'm sure young Serbs are tired of their nation being cut off from the wider world. And frankly, the sooner they're relieved of the burden of the myth of Kosovo, the better both ethnic Serbs and Albanians will be.
     
  23. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    Great post, bigred.

    I do believe all those "historic" talks are just serving today's agenda. For thousands years of historic conflicts--such as back to my country, the farmers vs. nomads were non-stop, but it would have no impact on today's living if a right-the historic wrong approach is not presented as a valuable option. Or if the outside powers are not meddling.

    As EU is based on the core of Franco-Germanic axis, all the other country has to be small to make it works. With a competition vs. Russia, a diminishing Serb is sure go the way EU likes. Otherwise, I would think Kurdistan should have a better case that Kosovo. But it will not work for interests of EU.
     
  24. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
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    Thanks.

    Interesting.

    Kurdistan is an interesting case; since the Kurds were denied their state after the Paris treaty, I wonder what the solution should be now. An independent Kurdistan arising from northern Iraq seems like a good idea, but what about the ethnic Kurds and the Kurdish regions in Turkey and Iran? I don't know the answer. I suspect that the most workable approach will be significant autonomy in a federal Iraq, at least for the time being. I'd like to hear from someone with more expertise/interest in the region.

    As for Kosovo, I disagree that you can't make as strong a case for independence as you could for Kurdistan; in fact, I'd argue that the case for an independent Kosovo is much stronger.

    Kosovo has a history as defined geopolitical entity, unlike Kurdistan. Kosovo has been a majority-Albanian province for centuries. And while Kosovo was indeed a part of the medieval Serbian kingdom, and the Partriarch of Pec is an important site in Serb history, the alleged centrality of Kosovo to Serb history, culture, and demographics is much more the product of 19th Century nationalist mythmakers than of the actual historical record. Pretty much every Balkan kingdom in the middle ages had its 'golden age' when its culture was at a zenith and its borders encompassed a maximum extent of territory. Ignoring over 700 years of constantly-shifting demographics and subsequent history is the only way to justify regarding 21st Century Kosovo as an integral part of modern Serbia.

    Kosovo was not the heart of the old Serb kingdom; more importantly for events today, it was not part of the new Serb kingdom which won its independence from the Ottoman Empire in the early 19th Century.

    In fact, Kosovo was conquered and unilaterally annexed by Serbia in 1908; a process of state-sponsored Serb colonization and suppression of the Albanian majority (who were "encouraged" through discriminatory practices and state violence to move away) was immediately installed, and continued more or less unabated after World War I; royalist Yugoslavia allowed the Serb leadership to continue this practice without interference. Tito changed all that; in some ways Milosevic's police state/apartheid tactics of the late 1980s were simply a revival of what had been official Serb policy towards the region.

    Sorry to go on so long; I risk being an obsessive crank everytime the former Yugoslavia comes up. :eek::)
     
  25. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    A Kurdistan would be one consists its parts in all four countries--Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. West will have no beef with the latter three and even encourage it, but will have the problem in Turkey part. It is against EU's interest so there will be no such policy as we see in Kosovo.

    [QUOTO]As for Kosovo, I disagree that you can't make as strong a case for independence as you could for Kurdistan; in fact, I'd argue that the case for an independent Kosovo is much stronger.

    Kosovo has a history as defined geopolitical entity, unlike Kurdistan. Kosovo has been a majority-Albanian province for centuries. And while Kosovo was indeed a part of the medieval Serbian kingdom, and the Partriarch of Pec is an important site in Serb history, the alleged centrality of Kosovo to Serb history, culture, and demographics is much more the product of 19th Century nationalist mythmakers than of the actual historical record. Pretty much every Balkan kingdom in the middle ages had its 'golden age' when its culture was at a zenith and its borders encompassed a maximum extent of territory. Ignoring over 700 years of constantly-shifting demographics and subsequent history is the only way to justify regarding 21st Century Kosovo as an integral part of modern Serbia.

    Kosovo was not the heart of the old Serb kingdom; more importantly for events today, it was not part of the new Serb kingdom which won its independence from the Ottoman Empire in the early 19th Century.

    In fact, Kosovo was conquered and unilaterally annexed by Serbia in 1908; a process of state-sponsored Serb colonization and suppression of the Albanian majority (who were "encouraged" through discriminatory practices and state violence to move away) was immediately installed, and continued more or less unabated after World War I; royalist Yugoslavia allowed the Serb leadership to continue this practice without interference. Tito changed all that; in some ways Milosevic's police state/apartheid tactics of the late 1980s were simply a revival of what had been official Serb policy towards the region.

    Sorry to go on so long; I risk being an obsessive crank everytime the former Yugoslavia comes up. :eek::)[/QUOTE]

    I have no problem about Kosovo independance, but I just simply point out that both Kosovo and Kurdistan have their shares of arguments and anti-arguments. Problems are outside powers in this case, EU and Russia, will make it a battleground. For EU's perspective, if it is working toward a less strict borders within themselves, it is kind of counter trend to try to form a strong sense of "nations" if the goal is to reduce them and replace with a border of EU.

    I always have problem with how strong the soverignity Europeans put in their life and the how all other civilizations have to adapt it and causes so much chaos and bloodsheds in the world.

    Then it is back to realpolitiks. If you look in the future that Europeans get their way to have an EU that diminishing current national borders and more collective central government, there is no much difference they have a Kosovo state or an autonomous Kosovo region of Serbia. When you have a unified market and currency with all interdependancy of people's life, the current policy makes no much sense. But without "destroying" the Yugoslavia and strong Serb state, it may not make the EU process smooth.

    With a strong EU, Europeans cannot compete with USA and China.
     

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