Semifinal: United States vs Canada, pre/pbp/post

Discussion in '2020 Women's Olympics Soccer' started by lil_one, Jul 31, 2021.

  1. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We have our semifinals set. SF24 will be the United States playing Canada on 2 August 2021 at 5 pm local time in Kashima Stadium.

    Like before, I'll let you all figure out (and possibly post here to help others) when and where the game is broadcast in your area of the world.

    Also both teams come into this match having played 120 minutes in their quarterfinals.
     
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  2. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    I've got the feeling that USA will win this one hands down, without even blinking.

    When you beat Netherlands, what can Canada do?
     
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  3. law10

    law10 Member+

    Dec 26, 2007
    1950 World Cup England "Kings of Football" v. 500-1 American semi-pros.

    That's why we play the games. Every now and then a combination of psychology, coaching, character and luck can overcome a combination of bad psychology, bad coaching and bad luck.

    USA and Sweden huge favourites, Canada and Australia 7-1.

    Kind of odd lines when you consider Canada has played their southern neighbour across the longest undefended border in the world non-stop and haven't beat them in 25 years. A quarter century of losses is only 7-1? I guess that's why the sportsbooks never go broke.
     
  4. law10

    law10 Member+

    Dec 26, 2007
    I am wondering if the Netherlands are the new Japan.
     
  5. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm gonna be interested in the starting lineup. Will Williams start again? Will Heath be back out there? Will Morgan be back on the bench? It Ertz really fully fit? Is the grass really greener on the other side? These are things I'm wondering...
     
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  6. West Ender

    West Ender Member

    Dec 28, 2020
    Southwest
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #6 West Ender, Jul 31, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2021
    I suspect Williams will start. Vlatko said of his top goal scorer, Press, that "you have to feed the beast." Based off that line of thinking, coupled with Williams' last outing, I don't think he can leave Lynn off the starting roster.
    Heath should start. I like Lloyd over Morgan, she sets the tone for how everyone else plays, which is "go hard all the time."
    Ertz is fit. If I'm not mistaken, she's played the most minutes of any player.
    No, that's a suburban myth. The other guys grass is just as brown and spotty.
    I'm here for inquiring minds.:p :D


    PS - For those who care about starting times according to U.S. timezones.

    SEMIFINALS
    Monday, August 2
    24 - United States vs. Canada (4 a.m. ET / 1 a.m. PT)
    23 - Australia vs. Sweden (7 a.m. ET / 4 a.m. PT)

    BRONZE MEDAL MATCH
    Thursday, August 5
    Australia or Sweden vs. United States or Canada (4 a.m. ET / 1 a.m. PT)

    GOLD MEDAL MATCH
    Thursday, August 5 (match is on Friday, Aug. 6th in Japan)
    Australia or Sweden vs. United States or Canada (10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT)
     
  7. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I hadn't really paid much attention to Williams apart from the odd match up to the run up to the Olys. Very clearly she was great on the wings getting the ball in to whom ever is there.
    I like Lloyd over Morgan, too.
    But who should Heath start instead of? William? Lloyd? Press? Or just go with a front 4? :D

    Didn't she miss most of the first match?
    If that's the case, then tell me, why are hotdog buns in pack of 8, while hotdogs are in packs of 6 or 10? I sense discrimination...
     
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  8. West Ender

    West Ender Member

    Dec 28, 2020
    Southwest
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As much as I like Press, I feel she plays better when coming in as a sub.
    Ertz only missed the first half of the Sweden match.
    LOL! I buy vegan dogs in packs of 8.
     
  9. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have to correct this because it's just like us to overlook somebody.
    Crystal Dunn has played all but 16 minutes out of the 390.
    (Of course GK Alyssa Naeher has played all of them)
     
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  10. West Ender

    West Ender Member

    Dec 28, 2020
    Southwest
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Appreciate it.
    Maybe I was thinking of her minutes compared to the other midfielders.
     
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  11. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    I'm still not going to sleep on Canada... Still thinking about the last time these two met at a major tournament, which interestingly was also an Olympic semifinal. It's a rivalry game, and those are always generally less predictable. And even if Canada isn't likely to get an outright win, elimination on PKs after a draw is clearly a possibility, which both of these teams got the better of last round.
     
  12. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've thought she has been more lively, and thus more of threat, than anybody else up front.
    Missed that. I thought she only came on in the last 15/20 min.
    Okay, then lets talk about the Jumbo Smartdogs (my preference). In a pack of 5. Even hoagie buns come in packs of 6. For the love of all that is good and true, what is the problem?

    Dunn got subbed off? That woman seems like she can run forever (one of the reasons I'm a big fan).
     
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  13. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
  14. West Ender

    West Ender Member

    Dec 28, 2020
    Southwest
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Press is indeed lively and dangerous, but prefers to shoot the ball even when there is a better outlet next to her.
    It's a little frustrating at times.
     
  15. BarryfromEastenders

    Staff Member

    Jul 6, 2008
    The only female coach left. Been in her role less than a year.

    Bev after Brazil -
    "Listen. To go all the way, do everything properly, so we can win that next match. Let's F---ing go!"

    3EF26858-EA5E-40BB-B6C0-FADCA25635DA.jpeg
     
  16. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Based on the published (pre-Olympics) FIFA ratings, the US is, naturally, a heavy favorite. With a published rating of 2197, the US has a 235 rating-point advantage over Canada (1962), which corresponds to a (.795) expected win percentage. In a knockout match, that translates roughly to a 77% - 78% chance of advancing to the next round.

    Of course, everyone's noticed the US hasn't been playing terribly well in the Olympics, not nearly what their lofty 2197 rating would suggest. Base on the Olympics games, I've roughly calculated that the current US rating is down to about 2132, a drop of 65 points. Canada's ratings haven't changed much; in my rough calculation, it stands probably close to 1966

    Based on these estimated current ratings including the quarterfinal results, the US rating advantage drops to 166 points, corresponding to a (.722) expected win percentage and roughly a 70%-71% chance of advancing to the next round. That's significantly improved for Canada, about a 30% chance of getting to the gold medal game.

    Based on performance ratings (since 1/1/2020), Canada's chances improve considerably again.

    The US performance rating in this period is down to 2064 while Canada's is 1958 (nearly identical to its official published rating) Based on performance ratings, the difference of 106 points corresponds to a (.648) expected win percentage for the US and roughly a 62%-63% chance of advancing. Canada has very considerable chances of an upset using that measure
     
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  17. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So, if the US and Canada were to play 100 times, one would expect the US to win roughly between 62 and 78 times and Canada, conversely, to win roughly between 38 and 22 times, depending on which ratings are most reliable. I have found this way of thinking about it helpful in gaining a proper perspective of reasonable expectations.
     
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  18. law10

    law10 Member+

    Dec 26, 2007
    So Canada's win rate is about 30-40%. Thanks, good to know.

    You do know they haven't beat them in a quarter century, right?

    The US even sent a U23 team to the Pan Am Games and beat the full Canadian women's team, with Sinclair and the works.
     
  19. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #19 kolabear, Aug 1, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2021
    Yes. To be more precise, these are the odds of advancing to the next round, including via PK in case of a shootout after an official draw.

    Just a small technical note, which I only imperfectly understand. In a match between two teams rated 100 points apart, the Elo scale gives the expected win pct as (.640) for the higher-rated team; but FIFA advises that in a knockout match, the higher-rated team is expected to advance only about 62% of the time. Why the discrepancy? I assume because in case of an official tie (match still tied after added extra time), the PK introduces a bit of a coin-flip probability bringing the odds marginally closer to 50%.

    I don't have the more precise data that FIFA does but this is why I take off about 2% from the expected win percentage given by the Elo scale when estimating the odds of the higher-rated team advancing in a knockout round.

    It may mean Canada is overdue :)

    But it raises, for me, an interesting point, a different way of looking at it. Some teams do seem to "always" beat another team, even though it seems like the head-to-head record should be closer. And on the other hand, there's another team, a bête noire, sometimes also called "Sweden" (or in other funny tongues, "Sverige"), which seems to beat you more than they should.

    Let's say your team is rated 1900. In the Elo scale, you should win 64% of the time against teams rated 1800 (100 points lower than you) and lose 36% of the time (we're going to ignore draws for the sake of simplicity). BUT, statistically, it comes to the same thing if you WIN ALL THE TIME against 64% of the teams rated 1800, and LOSE ALL THE TIME against 36% of the teams.

    The other good news for the US is that we just found out we're a better team at the moment when we play Lynn Williams than when we don't
     
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  20. law10

    law10 Member+

    Dec 26, 2007
    All the books (with real dollars on the line) have it at over 85%, and they pad the spread on both sides to cover house margin.
     
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  21. law10

    law10 Member+

    Dec 26, 2007
    I think the introduction of freshness into any environment is always underrated.
     
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  22. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How'd the books do on the earlier US games?

    I'm not a bettin' man, but if the Canada match-up was in the quarterfinals, unless those in the know knew that Vlatko was going to play Lynn Williams, I think 85% would've been foolish odds the way the US was playing.
     
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  23. law10

    law10 Member+

    Dec 26, 2007
    Not sure but in general they usually reflect reality because of the financial implications.

    Was just wondering, is there another two teams in any sport where there is a longer losing streak? i.e. one hasn't beat the other more than 26 times in a row?
     
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  24. JanBalk

    JanBalk Member+

    Jun 9, 2004
    Not sure but I would be surpised if Norway had ever beaten Sweden or Russia/Sovjet in Bandy (men), and they meet in almost all Bandy WC (played every second years since 1961 and every year since 2003). So should be something close to 40 matches against each with no win, and at least against Sweden there should be some Friendliess played also.
     
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  25. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    All the actual discussion about the game ended only happening on the US boards or on the Tokyo 2020 General Discussion thread! :p

    Anyway, I guess it's worth chiming in here to spread a little schadenfreude.

    On the US boards, USWNT supporters are discussing a borderline referee's decision that went against them. That's basically what the rest of the world was busy doing for at least a decade when playing against the USA: welcome to our world, US fans! :p:p:p
     

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