Season Winds Down - Which Games Don't Matter?

Discussion in 'Colorado Rapids' started by DavidJames, Aug 28, 2011.

  1. DavidJames

    DavidJames Member+

    May 11, 2003
    Longmont
    In the Chicago thread discussions included talk about writing off some games in favor of trying to win others. Below is Septembers schedule:


    Which games (if any) should the Rapids write off?

    For me I want the team to go all out for a WIN in the first two games, while they should send the reserves to Toronto and HOPE for a result. Just to be clear, sending the reserves means no starters. With the possible exceptions like a "normal" starter who missed the previous game for some reason and is able to go.

    The rest will depend on the results of the the first three as well as the results of those competing for the same objectives. Most likely winning the two CCL games makes the Metapan game a HOPE game.


    9 - @LA - WIN
    13 Santos - WIN
    17 @ Toronto - HOPE
    21 Real Espana -
    24 San Jose -
    28 @ Metapan -
     
  2. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
    I would like to see them take the CCL more seriously and put their best foot forward. At least long enough into the tournament that a 2nd place finish is locked up. I don't see any games as a "waste" unless we have already wrapped up the ss. I don't know how you juggle the lineup but I bet the "questions" become more regular if they lose a few matches and simmer down if they win.
     
  3. DavidJames

    DavidJames Member+

    May 11, 2003
    Longmont
    Is it safe to say this is how you would play it?

    9 - @LA - HOPE
    13 Santos - WIN
    17 @ Toronto - HOPE
    21 Real Espana - WIN
    24 San Jose - HOPE
    28 @ Metapan - WIN

    If not, replace with your plan and let us know how you would accomplish it.
     
  4. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
    I have no clue how I would do it. Sorry to be useless but I am glad its not my decision.

    9 - @LA - HOPE
    13 Santos - WIN
    17 @ Toronto - WIN
    21 Real Espana - WIN
    24 San Jose - WIN
    28 @ Metapan - HOPE

    The 2nd 11 needs to step up and the team needs to be ready to play more games. I would have less intense practices. I don't have any clue what they are or are not doing in practices so I'm not accusing Gary of doing a poor job. I think being rested and ready is important enough to call for less or less intense practices.
     
  5. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

    Dec 3, 2009
    Colorado
    Also, what are the goals for the MLS season?

    -1st or 2nd wildcard spot (so, home playoff game)
    -any playoff spot
    -doesn't matter

    FWIW, here are the wildcard teams in Pts/Gm order:

    Rapids (28 games played)
    Dynamo (27)
    DC United (24)
    NYRB (26)
    Timbers (26)
    Chivas (27)

    And it order of points:

    Rapids (41 pts/28 G)
    RSL (39/24)
    Union (34/24)
    NYRB (32/26)
    Timbers (32/26)
    DCU (31/24)
    Chivas (31/27)

    (I think the Rapids have the tie-breaker on all of them)
     
  6. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

    Dec 3, 2009
    Colorado
    We should also tack the Oct 1 Dallas game on that. 7 games in 23 days.
     
  7. DavidJames

    DavidJames Member+

    May 11, 2003
    Longmont
    You're the coach, you get to decide. Pick your objective and tell us how you will play the upcoming games.
     
  8. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    9 - @LA - HOPE
    13 Santos - WIN
    17 @ Toronto - WIN
    21 Real Espana - WIN
    24 San Jose -
    28 @ Metapan -

    The last two are somewhat dependent on results in our first 4 games and results by other teams. If we get a win in LA then I would change Toronto to HOPE and focus more on the home San Jose game for another win.
     
  9. DavidJames

    DavidJames Member+

    May 11, 2003
    Longmont
    Interesting, are you HOPEing in LA because you think it might be long shot to win regardless of the line up and are saving players? My thinking was the team should be rested and motivated to show up strong against LA and then can carry that momentum through the Santos game knowing they can rest for a week.

    You're playing the starters 3 games in 7 days could be tough and depending on the results you might play them 4 games in 11 days?
     
  10. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Pretty much, yeah.

    Yeah, I was a little concerned about those 3 games in a week from the starters. I figure Marshall and/or Mullan might not make my starting XI in all 3 games. But by playing reserves in LA, other than the guys going on international duty, the rest of them get over two weeks off before that stretch and two of those are home games without travel.

    The San Jose game may or may not be a WIN, depending on other results and the health of the team. I'd only push for it if our playoff position was in jeopardy and/or we had played well enough that I was able to sub out some of the more tired/older players in the earlier games.
     
  11. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

    Dec 3, 2009
    Colorado
    9 - @LA - Play 2nd team, tell them try not to lose 10-0
    13 Santos - WIN
    17 @ Toronto - Play 2nd team HOPE for a tie
    21 Real Espana - WIN
    24 San Jose - WIN
    28 @ Metapan - HOPE
    1 FC Dallas - HOPE

    I don't think it will matter what the goal is for the last two games, they'll be dead. My assumption heading into all this is that they're dead tired now. However, unlike dismemberment I have no idea about conditioning for a pro soccer team. Will they be recovered enough by Sep 9 to go for a win at both LA and vs Santos? I am assuming not.

    I think the most realistic of the ambitious MLS goals is a home wildcard game. I *think* they can be lackluster the rest of the way and hang on to the 2nd spot. Though the Chicago result was not a good start.

    It seems to me the 9/24 game is the best chance for a win...so of course they'll draw 2-2 and then be under some pressure in the final games.

    I am undecided on what to do if they lose the Santos or Real Espana game. Perhaps it depends on how well the teams behind them in the MLS race are doing.
     
  12. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

    Dec 3, 2009
    Colorado
    I didn't consider another MLS goal: finishing in the top 6 (which means USOC qualification, right?).

    I think the Rapids are currently 6th in terms of pts/game. Not sure if that would prompt me to change my vote. GS might try harder if they didn't have to play the prelim games, but I assume the FO would still not be interested in hosting one, so perhaps they still would send a 2nd team.
     
  13. deron

    deron New Member

    Jul 25, 2006
    Centennial, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I still think that the experience two seasons ago will prevent Smith from ever taking it seriously - lip service must be paid though.

    I honestly don't blame him. Until the day that the coin flip is public, and when hosts must use their home field to play the games I don't think US Soccer can claim to take it seriously either.


    [unrelated]

    As for what games don't matter, that's a dangerous game. The Rapids history is littered with games that grew in importance after they were played. The most important games right now are the next two, beyond that is just haze.
     
  14. for the Burgundy

    for the Burgundy New Member

    Oct 31, 2010
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Great thread. I'm setting my priorities directly behind our remaining league games until we are assured either the 8th or preferably the 7th playoff spot. There's nothing more I would enjoy than doing well in CCL but we are in danger of being passed by both Philly and KC which would mean we would have 1 home playoff game and 3 road playoff games to reach the Cup final as the 9 or 10 seed. That is a long shot at best. CCL for me is a luxury the team needs to be comfortably positioned for in the league table. I thought we were but 2 bad league results and we don't have to cushion we need, imo.

    I'm really interested to see what lineup Smith puts out for the Santos home game. As some others have said getting 3 points with a stronger lineup at Espana would have been my strategy, which I've moved strongly away from going forward. I felt that would allow us to punt the Santos game and one of Espana home or Metapan away depending on results. Though generally I don't like second guessing coaches if they are getting results. There are just too many things us fans don't see when it comes to lineup choices. So that being said, I would go with:

    9 - @LA - WIN
    13 Santos - HOPE
    17 @ Toronto - WIN
    21 Real Espana - HOPE
    24 San Jose - WIN
    28 @ Metapan - HOPE
     
  15. GreatZar

    GreatZar Member

    Colorado Rapids
    United States
    Mar 29, 1999
    Denver, CO, USA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    9 - @LA - Play 2nd/3rd team
    13 Santos - WIN
    17 @ Toronto - Play 2nd/3rd team
    21 Real Espana - WIN
    24 San Jose - WIN
    28 @ Metapan - Play 2nd/3rd team
    1 FC Dallas - WIN

    I think it's unrealistic to beat the Gals at HD (even with rested starters). That team is rigged/STRONG. By the time we play Metapan on the 28th, I expect us to already be qualified for the next round of CCL. Vs Toronto, I'd bunker HEAVILY and look for a 0-0 tie (let the scrubs get red cards hacking anyone they want -- our nickname is the Thugids anyway :D ).

    This is a brutal schedule!
     
  16. DavidJames

    DavidJames Member+

    May 11, 2003
    Longmont
    • I don't know what Gary's plan was.
    • Did he really think he could get results with the line ups he put on the field?
    • Does he think the players are better then they are?
    • Are the rapids so poorly organized that replacing a couple of starters results in a complete breakdown of cohesive play?
    • Will Gary learn from this?
    • Is blaming the coach for poor player performance the right thing to do?
    • Things really aren't this black and white are they?
     
  17. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    • That's my big question mark at this point. The tactical sub in the first half in LA to get some actual offensive firepower out there, and the makeshift defense he put out against Santos leads me to believe he really doesn't have a plan, he's just guessing at this point.

      The Rapids play 4 games in the next two weeks, and 3 of them are, IMO, must wins to make sure we qualify for the playoffs and the CCL knockout rounds. We need to beat Real Espana and Isidro Metapan to get through CCL, and to assure our playoff spot before hitting hard to win games against Dallas and FSL we need to beat Toronto or San Jose. Nothing Gary has done in the last month leads me to believe he knows this, and knows how to get it done.
     
  18. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Yeah, this is pretty much right on. If we have any hopes of advancing out of CCL, we absolutely have to beat Espana and Metapan. If we beat Espana and draw Metapan, then we'll lead Metapan by a point with our game at Santos left and Metapan hosting Espana, and I doubt we stay ahead of Metapan that way (this assumes Santos doesn't crash against Metapan / Espana).

    And yes, a win against Toronto or San Jose should pretty well lock up one of the wild card spots. I'm hoping that we put out a full lineup this weekend and knock off Toronto. I've got to think that's the plan.

    At this point, I'd go with the following:

    @Toronto: WIN
    Espana: WIN
    SJ: Mix/match if we win @Toronto, else go for WIN
    @Metapan: WIN
    FCD: Depends on other MLS results and CCL results
    @Santos: Depends on other MLS results and CCL results

    On an unrelated note - I was curious about just how bad it could be for the Rapids if they lost their remaining games, and determined that given the right set of results, the Rapids could still technically finish last in the league. Now, that set of results is totally implausible, but it's still technically possible.
     
  19. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

    Dec 3, 2009
    Colorado
    I don't have much confidence in their ability to achieve both goals at this point. Most of the starters played against Santos; if they play again vs TFC then Real Espana I think we'll be looking at another disappointing home tie vs. San Jose. They way they've been playing, I don't think they can count on anything against Dallas and RSL. (Well, not "anything," but they can easily lose both games, will probably lose one, could very easily get a single point out of the two games.)

    I think the pattern's been established, though. The lineups will be such that none of these games thru Oct 1 will get a full lineup and several will featured tired players despite that. I fear this will be a 1-win month.

    I think they'll limp into the playoffs, and probably hold onto that 7th spot for a home playoff game. 6 pts in the last 5 league games means Philly needs 11 pts in the last 7 to tie and we must have the tie breaker with the win and tie.

    I don't know about the CCL, though. It's not looking like 8 pts will cut it this time, and I don't know that they've got 2 more wins in them.
     
  20. GreatZar

    GreatZar Member

    Colorado Rapids
    United States
    Mar 29, 1999
    Denver, CO, USA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm worried that we won't make the MLS playoffs AND miss out on the next round of CCL.

    We have to get 3pts from Real Espana as they lost to the other two teams in the group. ***MUST WIN*** Then we have to win an away match (either Santos or Metapan). If we win our last home match and win at Metapan, we qualify for the next round no matter how badly we loose at Santos.

    I think we need 48pts to make the MLS playoffs (an additional 7 from our current point total). We play the 3rd, 4th, and 14th place teams in the league (Dal, FSL, Quakes) at home and travel to Tor and Van (#17 & #18).

    Based on this, I'm betting Gary has already written off the CCL and the line-up on Wed will confirm this. What's maddening is that a second team win on Wed will reinforce Gary's choices as correct. He has to play a full 1st team on Wed vs Real Espana and at Metapan on Sep 28 (assuming we win on Wed).

    But in my rambling...what happens when we qualify for the Qtrs in the CCL. We would likely play a home/away with another Mexican team. Will the Rapids management take those matches seriously?

    Final season matches:
    @Tor Sat Sep 17
    vs Real Espana Wed Sep 21
    vs Quakes Sat Sep 24
    Metapan Wed Sep 28
    vs Dal Sat Oct 1
    (rest break)
    vs FSL Fri Oct 14
    santos Wed Oct 19
    @Van Sat Oct 22

    Wed Oct 26 MLS Wild Card playoff date
    Mar 2012 CCL Quarterfinals played
    Apr 2012 CCL Semifinals
    Late Apr 2012 CCL Final
     
  21. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think 48 over-estimates what we need. At current level of play Houston will be the final playoff team at 42-43 points (remember, 10 teams get in this year). I think 44-45 will be enough to qualify for the playoffs.
     
  22. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

    Dec 3, 2009
    Colorado
    I agree...you sort of have to look at the last team or two, and the top couple teams that right now are on the outside and short of a sudden great run, estimate what they might get to.

    48 seems more like a total that would give the Rapids a good chance at a home playoff game. I think that's something to strive for so they can get a home playoff game (if they win that they'd get another home game in the conference semi's).
     
  23. GreatZar

    GreatZar Member

    Colorado Rapids
    United States
    Mar 29, 1999
    Denver, CO, USA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well...as I write this:

    Sorted by max possible pts:

    55pts Gals (6 to play: possible 73pts) W1
    48pts Sounders (6 to play: possible 66pts) W2
    46pts Dallas (6 to play: possible 64pts) W3
    41pts Crew (6 to play: possible 59pts) E1
    40pts Sporting (6 to play: possible 58pts) E2
    36pts Union (7 to play: possible 57pts) E3

    45pts FSL (8 to play: possible 69pts)
    34pts DC (9 to play: possible 61pts)
    36pts Timbers (6 to play: possible 54pts)
    33pts Red Bull (7 to play: possible 54pts)
    -----
    41pts Rapids (4 to play: possible 53pts)
    36pts Houston (5 to play: possible 51pts)
    29pts Quakes (7 to play: possible 50pts)
    30pts Fire (6 to play: possible 48pts)
    31pts Goats (5 to play: possible 46pts)
    27pts Revs (6 to play: possible 45pts)
    22pts Van (7 to play: possible 43pts)
    30pts TFC (4 to play: possible 42pts)

    I think we need more than 2 wins to make the playoffs.
     
  24. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Have you watched Houston and NY play? They would need a serious turnaround to get anywhere near 47 points. I'm not convinced 10 teams will break 41 points, which means we could be in already, but I'm willing to risk the season on that.

    A win and a draw to be safe and we're in. No way 10 teams get over 45 points.
     
  25. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Also, Philly - Columbus is on now, RSL - KC is on soon, Portland plays NYRB in the near future, NY hosts RSL, KC plays Philly, KC plays Columbus, Philly plays DC, Columbus plays DC, DC hosts RSL, Portland plays Houston, KC plays NY, DC - Portland, NY - Philly, DC - KC... so, basically, it's impossible for all of those teams to hit their MPP. 45 points should be enough.

    However, it is still technically possible for the Rapids to come in 2nd to last. It's impossible for the Rapids to come in last. Both Toronto and NE have a MPP of 42, but they play each other.

    A draw today would have been really nice, though.
     

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