Season Predictions

Predictions

I think it's still too early in pre-season to be doing this, but...ah, what the hell:

Revs
Columbus
Metro
DCU
Chicago

LA
Dallas
Colo
SJ
KC

LA is *the* team to beat. Would it be great or what, to beat them for the Cup in *their* yard this year?

Chicago could have the league's worst record. Cbus will be tough if they get another good year out of Busch. Bradley will pull some surprises with Metro, and DCU will be greatly improved if Rimando remains healthy. I see SJ making a big drop down the table, and KC just doesn't seem to have improved themselves very much at all from last year's model.

I think 2003 will be the Year of the Goalkeepers.

 

In the east, the teams that did MAJOR reshuffling will struggle: Chicago, NJ and DC.

Of those, DC has the most significant veterans to help organize things.

NJ is a crapshoot - a lot is riding on rookies and their whole defense is changed around. Big question marks about whether Pope is on the downside and whether Mathis will play like he is capable of. Those two have a lot of bodies to carry!

Columbus will be good - a real tough opponent in every game they play.

Chicago will be a mess - the favorite contender for the #1 draft pick.

In the west, LA has done nothing but improve around the edges, although everyone else, excepting SJ, has improved.

With KC, they NEED a healthy Wolff for the bulk of the season. He could be just what they need, but w/o him, they'll just be a team getting older and staler.

Dallas looks great on paper, but somehow they never seem to break through. The heat? Are they the Texas Rangers of MLS?

Colorado will be better, but I don't see them jumping over Dallas or LA.

SJ has replaced some key veterans with youth. This year'll be further slippage from the glory year.


NE
Columbus
DC
NJ
Chicago

LA
Dallas
Colorado
KC
SJ

(NJ and Chicago worst overall records).

 

Predictions

MLSnet's Jeff Bradley is predicting "Extreme Parity":
http://www.mlsnet.com/content/03/firstXI0218.html
Last year's table was separated by 19 points, and he says it will be less than 15 this year.
With Chicago rebuilding, I disagree with that one, but the other 9 could be that close.

I'm just hoping the Revs finish the regular season above .500 for the first time ever. I predict they'll win the East again, by a few points over Columbus.

I'll agree with everyone else in that LA is the team to beat (*sigh*).

 

Re: Predictions

I may have blinders on (wouldn't be the first time), but with the way we played down the stretch last year, a MUCH better schedule (with the CONCACAF Cup helping get sharp for the regular season) and a roster that's been fine-tuned and is competitive at every position, I just don't see us losing a lot of games.

 

this may sound crazy, but i dont think LA will be as good this year. Its been known in MLS history that forwards who score as much as ruiz did dont have quite the season after. The Galaxy didnt go out and get any offensive help for him, so he's all alone (I seriously wouldnt call Chacon offensive help). GK situation is shaky, cuz we all know how Hartman has played in the past and how Reis outplayed him. LA strong point will be defense.

Colorado added two great players, Dallas will be strong this year, i believe the race for the west will be those 3 teams, with colorado taking the crown.

 

East:

Revs
Columbus
DC United
MetroStars
Chicago

West:

Los Angeles
Colorado
Dallas
Kansas City
San Jose

Playoffs:
Revs over Mutts, DC over Columbus, LA over KC, Colorado over Dallas.

Revs over DC, Colorado spoils the party.

Revs beat Club Calcio Internazionale di Wannabe-o in front of a sold-out, but half-full Victoria Street. Blame it on the TV networks who decided to run a "Falcon Crest" marathon the same day as the Cup Final.

 

I can absolutely assure you that Matt Reis never outplayed Kevin Hartman.

And Einstein, what happens to TT under the "Carlos Ruiz is gonna suck this year" rule? If you start saying, "Joe-Max Moore", I'm gonna laugh then puke.

 

I think that Joe-Max scored as much in the Jamaica qualifier as APC did all last year. Seeing that the Revs are adding Moore (and, possibly, an attacking mid) to the team that outscored LA last year, I'm sure you'll be puking a lot next year.

Ruiz's biggest concern isn't that he'll have a sophomore slump. It's that they'll teach the offside rule to the refs. He'll probably lose about 1/3 of his goals if they enforce the rule properly.

 

thanks tim, thats basically what i wanted to say. I just think LA fans are nervous about the goal output they'll be getting this season since they didnt get anybody to take the pressure off of Ruiz. Revs did, they got Moore, who has 100 points in his MLS career.

 

If Reis wasn't nearly the equal of Hartman, why did it take Ziggy so long to make up his mind about his starter?

As for TT/Ruiz, I predict neither will have the numbers they had last year--but the Revs will outscore LA in total golas in 2003.

 

Try not to choke.

 

I think this season will be all about, in one word: depth. Not GKs (who will still matter) or scorers. But depth. The season is longer (which gives time to recover from some nicks but potentially means more impact for major injuries), there is no USL agreement. Teams without depth will be critical. Case in point: NE. Last year, when Diallo, APC, Rooney and Sommer failed to impress, the Revs reloaded. There has probably been no team in MLS history that has had the ability to bench 4 key starters and improve play like that (I certainly don't think the 2003 Revs could afford to do that).

3 teams look to have major depth problems in 2003: Chicago (fine 10 starters, no A-mid and no depth), SJ and SoS (both of which are still works in progress and cap challenged). So I strongly disagree with Bradley that the league has parity--parity only on paper and only for starting 11's. Not beyond.

I also think KC is worse this year than last (Wolff has never had a season in MLS without a major injury and has never led his team in scoring and averages 8 goals a season--and he's there big offensive threat?).

I think LA will run away with it in the West (b/c, to be fair, I don't know the colorado talent well enough to feel that their system will work and their new additions will be stars), and Dallas got deeper but I don't think their starting 11 got better (and they might have gotten worse if Kreis slides and Chivas doesn't match last year's performance--so far he's being criticized for being woefully out of shape). Yallop is doing a terrible job out in SJ (just look at the GK mess with first Onstad and now the retired Forrest). Who's going to play forward with Donovan (even if DeRosario were healthy--and he's not)? Ching? Mullen?

In the East, SoS is built on a star system (in which all the money is spent on 6 players: Mathis, Moreno, Pope, Howard, Jolley and Rosas). Those players have to dominate matches b/c they won't have the money to spend on the rest of the squad or a bench. On paper, Columbus looks good but I'm still convinced McBride will move to Everton and then that squad is a bunch of speedy, technically-superb dribblers with no defensive organization and poor offensive coordination.

NE has to be regarded as the favorite in the East. But NE doesn't have last year's depth. Before I get slammed on that statement (about competitive camps and the drafting of Noonan, etc.), look at things from this perspective: NE's bench last year was Twellman, Cullen, Hernandez, Brown and Kante. When guys got hurt (llamosa, Sommer) or played poorly (Rooney, APC, lead striker Diallo or Serna), NE was able to reload and put in players who clearly improved the team. It's just totally unrealistic to argue that the Revs have that kind of bench strength in 2003. Now, the Revs clearly have much better depth than Chicago, SoS, SJ, and probably Colorado and perhaps Columbus--I'm not arguing depth is a weakness. But last year NE could have nearly have the starting lineup replaced and get better. Last year, NE had the best depth in the league by far. I don't think that is the case this year.

Obviously, we'll find out for sure once the season starts. Can't wait.

 

East
NE
Columbus
Metrostars
DC
Chicago

West:
LA
Colorado
Dallas
San Jose
Kansas City

I'm unsure about the San Jose over KC and the Colorado over Dallas, but everything else I'll stick with.

 

Joe, I would agree with you that depth will be the key, and whoever has the best "marginal" players who can step in will end up best off. But I have to disagree with your comparison with last year's Revs. Twellman was a starter since the second game in Columbus, so I wouldn't really consider him "bench strength." The fact that the Revs got so little out of guys who were projected starters says more about the Revs early season form. I wouldn't consider Hernandez a bench player either, since he took over for Andy Williams, who started most of the time.

Having a guy like Wolde Harris on the bench or even to use as a third forward with JMM and Twellman is a huge asset, as is having 5 very competent defenders in Pierce, Franchino, Llamosa, Kante and Heaps. Sure, there are some thin areas, but I am not worried a bit when the inevitable injuries and suspensions deplete the first 11 so that we will be forced to give some of these guys a start.

Tom

 

I think the important thing to keep in mind about depth (well, several things actually) is that the Revs envisioned a team in the preseason. And when that team didn't work out (chemistry, injuries, form), they were able to do a "do-over" b/c of the bench. That's incredibly rare. Other than year 1 (when all lineups were in flux and most teams didn't have 11 players who deserved to start in MLS), I'd argue there are no examples of teams who were able to ditch 4-5 players they expected to play starting and major roles and still be successful in MLS. That's a function of the cap.

By all means, I don't argue NE has no depth. NE has pretty good depth. But it's not anywhere near the depth the team had last year. And, b/c of the roster and cap issues, ALL teams will have thin spots (keep in mind, we've got the Confed Cup, Gold Cup, a couple of friendlies, US Olympic prep, potentially the youth WC--all matches that a bunch of players on EVERY team in the league will miss). Every MLS team will find there are games this year where they run out of bodies, let alone competent bodies they trust. But some teams will find this to be an issue from game 1 on (SoS, Chicago, SJ). Having Harris as a reserve is an asset.

 

I must admit I'm shocked to hear anyone say that the Revs depth isn't as good as last year. It seems to me that the Revs have their starting eleven back intact and have improved or are improving in every area.

We dropped Rooney, APC, Sommer, Cloutier and Serna. Did you want to keep any of them?????

We picked up Reis, Moore, Joesphs, Noonan and are looking at two Internationals and a couple of reasonably good Dev Roster players.

Please tell me where the Revs lack depth on their 18 man roster?

 

I think that last year we had a lot of depth on paper, but now we have more real depth. You're right that we couldn't replace 4 or 5 starters this year, but we shouldn't have to. Last year, we had about 7 new starters, none of whom had played for our coach before. We then switched coaches and added more new players to the mix. We now have 9 or 10 returning starters, all of whom played successfully for Nicol last year. Our only possible non-returning starters (Moore and a foreign acquisition) will be backed up by last year's starters. We also have 5 returning "starters" on defense (Heaps, Kante, Pierce, Llamosa, and Franchino). Our probable bench would be Reis, one of the above defenders plus Shalrie Joseph, Cullen, Griffiths or Kamler, Harris, and Noonan, our first round draft pick. For the MLS, having 4 starters from last year's MLS Cup makes for a fairly deep bench.

 

George is, of course, correct.

To me depth means having a number of players who can be substituted without significant loss of quality. By that definition, the Revs squeaked by last year with precious little depth. The one place in which depth saved our bacon was at central defence when we able to plug in Pierce, Kante, or Llamosa depending on who was healthy that day. In other respects, the bench (with the exception of the underrated Cloutier) was scarily weak. We will likely add a SI midfielder this year. There may be one or two new young players who will stick. Overall, we will be adding one or two starting players to the 2002 2nd place finisher, and one or two new bench players - hardly a thinner line-up.

So if depth means how many strong players you have, well sure, 2003 and every other year is about depth. It's obvious that the teams with the best ability to withstand injuries are at an advantage. Sure, there will be more games this year than last, so depth is more important now than it was in 2002. But depth is not the only factor.

On any given Saturday, what wins games is the magic of continuity and a recent memory of winning games. No infusion of talent can do this. All the teams that have had big make-overs had better be prepared to drop a few games early on while they get the kinks out, and figure out who fits in the long-term plan. If NE has an advantage, this is it.

 

Well said Jon.

It is exciting to see that for the first time the Revs are going into the season without having done a major makover. It's also clear that SN has pruned the roster of players that he thinks he can replace at a higher level of proformance. To have last years starting roster intact and to add JMM and possibly one or more quality starters offers hope that the Revs can come out of the blocks strong. It's also nice that we won't spend the first month on the road as in past years.

Of course Rosters of all MLS Teams are still works in progress. At this point it's hard to make any realistic predictions as to just how much improvement any team will make but I do agree that teams with consistancy will make out better than teams who have made major changes.

I think in the East the Revs will be the team to beat.
In the West I think LA will again be the team to beat.

 

Any why wouldn't the same then be true of Twellman????

Also, to say that chacon is on the downside of his career is a true misnomer, I think he will partner quite nicely in with Ruiz, Cienfuegos, Jones and Elliott.

 

The "do-over" was done mostly with acquisitions, not bench players. Hernandez, Kamler, Kante and Griffiths were all acquired midseason (along with Serna, who was a no-op).

When the Revs hit the depths, it was because they had to call on Downing off their bench (who was out of his league), play Hernandez and Cullen out of position (both have shown they are really midfielders) and allow Heaps time to learn "on the job".

A defense of Downing-Hernandez-Cullen-Heaps was a disaster. Going into this season, even a complete 2nd team defense (Joseph-Pierce-Leonard-Cullen?) would probably be better than that group!

 

Fair enough. Actually, it'll pretty interesting to see which of these two guys can emerge from the blanket coverage they're going to get this year (if either) and repeat their accomplishments of 2002. Hopefully MLS pranksters will decide not to superglue the officials' whistles in their pockets like they did last year (what guys like Lalas used to do to Twellman - and Ruiz got some of the same - is a felony in most states).

Jones and Elliot better be ready to do an awful lot of work then. Honestly, I don't think LA will be able to keep Ruiz, Cienfuegos, and Chacon on the field at the same time.

The spate of revisionism and overconfidence that LA fans are showing with regard to the Chacon acquisition puts them squarely in the "be careful what you wish for" category.

Lottsa luck...

Couldn't have said it better myself (or, obviously I would have). Out of that bunch, none put in meaningful minutes last year down the stretch - when the team was playing well. The only guy I think might still be useful is Cloutier, and I have a feeling a makes a little too much.

Still, based on a single late season run, I find it difficult to predict the Revs (or anyone else for that matter) has frontrunners in the East. It all depends on what happens with The Bob's team, The Quote Machine's team, and Columbus (did I leave anyone out?)

 

I can't see opposing defenses collapsing on Twellman because they can be just as easily burned by Joe-Max Moore. Who else does LA have that can be that dangerous if the defenders concentrate on Ruiz? Didn't he score something like half the team's goals last year? I wouldn't expect APC to pick up the slack in that area.

Tom

 

Colorado is going to be higher then 4th in the west. They only lost Valdaramma, who was too old and lazy, and gained an exciting young striker, a great euro midfielder, and a strong Mexican left back. I think there will be a new team on the field that will turn out to throw a wrench in LA's plans to repeat!