Are you serious? Portland has 35 points with +22 GD LA has 29 points with 0 GD. Do you think Portland can lose 2 games and LA can win 2 games with the total GD of 22 points? You either can not do math or you live in an alternate reality. I did not make a sweeping / general statement . A question was asked yesterday morning whether Portland has clinched, and my answer was very specific. With all teams having play 20 games and the standing at that point in time, Portland has clinched. You were the one who made a general statement about how standings can change. Why don't you try to read?
I think, considering that you can't have both CHI and LA on 35+ points, SD and RGN can clinch even with just a draw in one of their remaining two. The other things to keep looking at are the Shield, the second playoff bye, and hosting. Considering how tight it is, of course, hard to separate those scenarios just yet. The only "interesting" games left, in addition to CHI/LA, are HOU/RGN and maybe SD/NC. With 35pts as the current limit for securing at least 6th, I think 38pts is the current limit for securing at least 4th - the HOU/RGN match guarantees that at least one of them maxes out at 37pts, and there are only 3 other teams in the picture at that point. So only POR is in complete control of guaranteeing a home game this weekend - but others could too depend on results elsewhere. Beyond that, since there aren't many six-pointers left, the only way to guarantee a first-round bye *or* the Shield at this point is with 41pts, which no one can guarantee this weekend, at least on their own. Again, though, if eliminated teams start playing spoilers, those numbers will go down.
If we're talking about clinching scenarios, the only thing that matters is what's possible, not what's reasonable. So yes, it's entirely possible that LA make up 22+ goals on POR in four matches. I listed a simple scenario that makes up 24 goals. Is it likely? Hell no. But that doesn't change what's still mathematically possible. No matter how unlikely it is, LA still can theoretically pass POR. That's why it's important that LA and CHI will still play each other. Without that match, it's still possible that both could pass POR, so you can't declare POR clinched solely on their GD over LA. Similar logic is why ORL was still "alive" before this midweek, even though they needed to make up nearly 20 goals over CHI for that tiebreak to fall in their favor. Clinching and elimination cannot be declared as long as they're still a scenario, no matter how unlikely, to the contrary. Your initial answer that POR clinched was correct, but the reasoning in the initial statement was not. You then tried to justify your reasoning with a general rule that was not true, and that's what my second bullet point was addressing. I can't help you beyond that.
Oh, one more clinching scenario to think about: the Wooden Spoon! Simple enough on this end of the table: NJY gets the Spoon if they fail to win out *or* if LOU earn at least 2pts from their last two games.
Gotham's perfromance in this last month or such was abysmal: how many consecutive losses did they post? (Or, anyway, how many losses in the latest games?)
With their loss Wednesday, NJY are up to 11 consecutive losses, which has now broken the record of 10 that WAS posted in 2018. Surprisingly, WAS was not the worst team in 2018. It was - wait for it - NJY. To put things in perspective, we'll consider two scenarios: NJY losing or winning out in their last two games this season, for either 12pts or 18pts in 22g. Here's where those would fall on "worst NWSL seasons ever": 2018, NJY -- 09pts/24g = 0.375PPG 2018, WAS - 11pts/24g = 0.458PPG 2022, NJY - 12pts/22g = 0.545PPG 2016, BOS - 11pts/20g = 0.550PPG 2013, WAS - 14pts/22g = 0.636PPG 2019, ORL - 16pts/24g = 0.667PPG 2021, KC --- 16pts/24g = 0.667PPG 2015, BOS - 15pts/20g = 0.750PPG 2014, HOU - 18pts/24g = 0.750PPG 2017, WAS - 19pts/24g = 0.792PPG 2017, BOS - 19pts/24g = 0.792PPG 2013, RGN - 18pts/22g = 0.818PPG 2022, NJY - 18pts/22g = 0.818PPG 2014, BOS - 20pts/24g = 0.833PPG
One thing that NJY has at least avoided this year, though, is a lack of wins. Usually, the worst team in the league has at least four - but there have been five occasions when a team has only earned 3 or less. Those are: 2018, NJY - 1 2018, WAS - 2 2016, BOS - 3 2013, WAS - 3 2021, KC - 3 The only team from the worst 7 of the previous list not on this low-win list (aside from the current NJY) is the 2019 ORL side. Interestingly, it's looking like 2022 might have two low-win teams with neither of them getting the Spoon, as both ORL and WAS only have 3 wins this year so far, but WAS can't be caught by NJY and ORL is very nearly clear too (per my earlier comment about what it takes to clinch the Spoon this year). What NJY lacks this year are draws - while WAS has drawn a whopping half of their games (and ORL not far behind).
One other thing: you ask about the last month or so, and a big part of NJY's woes over just that time period is that they haven't scored at all for the entire month of September. And they only scored four goals in five August games.
Stats say Dash but scoreboard says Reign... RGN second team clinched; HOU now looking worryingly like last year with the threat of a late-season collapse and missing the playoffs. Even a draw against WAS, which was all they needed at this point last year, wouldn't make them clinch this year - again, 35pts is the goal, not 34.
For that to happen, the Wave would have to win today and next week and the Thorns would have to tie or lose to Gotham. Stranger things have happened (but not much stranger).
I mean, I also posted before the POR-CHI result was in, so it wasn't as far-fetched as it is now, especially with SD down against ORL right now... ...but NJY has done a last-match surprise win before back in 2018! X'-D
Actually, I think the Wave are *technically* still in it; they're only 3pts back. Of course, for the Wave to still win the Shield, they'd need: 1. POR lose at NJY 2. KC and RGN lose or tie their last matches 3. SD beat NC, such that NJY-over-POR and SD-over-NC make up the 14 goals between the current 25-vs-11 Again, like some of the other discussions earlier, we're talking highly unlikely GD shennanigans.... but not mathematical elimination. SD probably wishes that last year's tiebreaks were still in effect with H2H as the determining factor.
Since it hasn't been explicitly said yet: Congrats to NJY for winning this year's Wooden Spoon As for everything else, POR and RGN have now secured home playoff matches - though whether they have a first-round bye or not is still up in the air. HOU has a chance at a home playoff match, but they're the only team alive for hosting that isn't already in hosting position, and they can't get the bye. The good news for HOU is that LOU's victory over LA means HOU only needs a draw against WAS next week to clinch a playoff berth. (Which is exactly what they needed last year...) KC and SD have the most to gain to lose, as both can theoretically win the Shield *and* can also drop out of hosting position. Also, due to NC's late-season surge, the much-addressed LA-CHI match next week is now essentially a play-in match for the playoffs. A draw helps neither team (unless SD absolutely wallops NC) and even a win for either team might not be enough if HOU and NC keep distance above them. With how tight this season has been and with so much still on the line, it's a shame NWSL didn't try harder to do a real "Decision Day" like MLS does. It's entirely possible that the LA-CHI game, the only one on Sunday, could be entirely meaningless; the Shield might be out of reach for RGN when they kickoff, and maybe for KC too if POR comes out blazing against NJY.
The only benefit to the staggered matches this last week, for me, is that SD beating NC on Friday (first match of the week) means two great things: 1. I can cheer guilt-free for WAS to end the season at 1PPG, as an NC loss means HOU clinches, so I can relax in terms of HOU finally making the playoffs 1b. If HOU still beats WAS, it adds interest to the KC-LOU game, though those two games are near-simultaneous 2. It makes the CHI-LA game all to play for
By "absolutely wallops" you mean something quite out of the realm of believable, don't you? NCC currently has a goal difference of +13 vs +4 for Chicago and -2 (!) for Angel City. Now, I completely agree with you when you said, some posts above, that there are things that are technically possible although no-one actually thinks they're going to happen: I think a draw between the Red Stars and Angel City helping one of them into the play-offs is one of those technically possible but actually impossible things.
Well LA's GD doesn't matter if they draw, as they'd still be a point behind NC if NC loses. It's just CHI - but yeah, SD would have to win by at least 9 to get NC's GD down to CHI's! And I still wouldn't say "actually impossible". Entirely unreasonable or unrealistic, yes - but still possible, if we're being literal! Like, you never know if there will or won't be an incident early in a match that sends one team down two red cards
On the other hand, it looks like Angel City actually need the Courage to squarely lose in San Diego: if NCC draws they could technically catch them at 32 points, but then they'll need to win vs Chicago Red Stars by more than 15-0! How does that sound on your "unrealistic" scale?
Let's see... Well, the best scale I can think of for scores like that is the "UEFA qualifying" scale, where a 15-0 or worse is 2%! (5 matches out of 236)
By the way, what's been the harshest beating in the history of NWSL? I seem to remember at least a 6-0 score some seasons ago, not sure if there was anything worse than that.
To add to the Red Stars woes, St. Georges and Morse got red cards against the Thorns, so are out of the game this week. And both were unnecessary player errors. With all of the players they have been missing and the management woes earlier in the season, maybe it all was too much for the players to cope with -- that was how it looked at the end of the game. I like the Red Stars and hope they win their game this week, so maybe they can recuperate and put it together for one more game.
The six biggest victories in NWSL history are all by six goals, though not all 6-0s: 2014 : POR 7-1 KC 2016 : WNY 7-1 BOS 2019 : NC 6-0 POR 2022 : POR 6-0 ORL