Last week marked 1 year to go until the referendum on an independent Scotland. may as well have this here and follow what goes on in the next 12 months First things first, i cannot see any way that the Scots would actually vote overwhelmingly for this. Polls have been consistently showing a yes vote at around the 30% mark with the 'don't know's' at about 20%. Comically enough a poll taken in England showed a higher % wanting Scotland to gain independence than than it did in Scotland itself There is just so much that with 1 year to go is still completely unanswered though, and neither side seem to be in a rush to clear things up National debt? North sea oil? gold reserves? military? Would they need to reapply to join the EU and if so would it need to join the Euro and become part of Schengen? What on earth happens to the SNP once they lose??
While I live in London (at least for another 45 days) I am American and have no vote. In fact, from a purely US standpoint, as long as the Scots don't let the Chinese set up a naval base in the Orkineys, it probably does not matter much to America what happens here. In terms of sentiment though, I hope the Scots agree to affirm the Union, though maybe by changing the relationship to a federal one. I agree that Scottish indepenedence is nmore popular in England than in Scotland. The SNP,won the last Scottish election not because of independence but because they have done a good job in bad circumstances. And to be truthful, I am not sure Salmond really wants independence. I think he wants Scotlandto leave Westminster running the military and foreign service and Hollyrod everything else. Unlike the radical independence supporters, Salmond is something of a monarchist and wants to reestablish Scotland not as a commonwealth realm but to go back to the pre-Union situation of sharing a monarch with England (whether that woulod survive long post independence is another matter, an independent Scotland will be a republic within a generation) If the Scots do vote for independence what happens next is a tabula rosa. There is no certainty the EU will automatically allow them to stay in, they may have to reapply. And the EU has been making acceptance of the Euro required for new members -- the SNP says it wants to keep the pound. Gordon Brown sold off all the gold, so that is not an issue, but the national debt is a big one. If by population, Scotland gets about 10% of it but if by GDP, then more goes to the remnant UK. The real issue is where to draw the line in the North Sea oil fields, ddepending how that line is drawn Scotland can gain or lose a lot of money.
London got one. The problem with an English parliament is that England so predominates over the rest of the UK, an English parliament might even outshone the Westminster one. There had been a plan to create regional assemblies but only London's was approved (as it used to have one before Thatcher shut it down). The answer may be to have the non-English MPs not vote on purely English matters, but given the overlapping jurisidction betwen England and Wales, that may not work. Technically Wales, which has its own devolved assembly is part of England legally, and uses Anglo-Saxon common law, while Scotland uses Roman law. Hence even before the devolution separate laws were often passed for Scotland. Further, what would happen if Labour has a majority overall, but the Tories have a majority in England? Not sure what the answer is.
670 page blueprint to be released today by the SNP which will 'clearly and simply set out the difference independence could make to people’s lives' 650 questions answered in there apparently Already revealed that they want to keep the pound, meaning the Bank Of England will control their interest rates.
The SNP has been saying this for a while. There is precedent for keeping the pound. The Irish kept the punt tied to the pound for about 50 years after independence.
Keeping a currency tied to another one is quite common. The pound was 'linked' to a basket of European currencies during the late 80's/early 90's until it all came crashing down around their ears but I don't think that's what the scots are talking about. I think they're talking about, effectively, the rest of the UK's taxpayers, through the bank of England, guaranteeing scottish debt as the lender of last resort, not just in the past but going forward. AFAIK that would also imply them having to accept whatever interest and tax rates we deem necessary for our own purposes. Anyway, it looks like the euros will put the kaibosh on this stuff... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25132026 The Spanish prime minister has suggested that an independent Scotland would have to apply to become a member of the EU from the outside. Mariano Rajoy said that if a "region" opted to leave a member state, then it would "remain outside the European Union". It would then require the agreement of all 28 EU members before it was allowed to join, he said. The Scottish government aims to negotiate entry from within the EU. This would be done in the 18 months between a Yes vote and formal secession from the UK, it has said. I thought when I listened to Salmond's announcement that it was not a plan so much as a 'wish-list' of 'wouldn't it be lovely if...'. He seems to be under the impression that just because he says something, everyone has to agree. That's not the way the world works. Having said that I didn't expect it to unravel quite this quickly.
I agree -- I cannot see the English allowing the Scots to keep the pound on those terms. Furthermore, there is the issue that new members of the EU have to agree to move to the Euro at some point (the Swedes, British and Danes were grandfathered out of the Euro). The Spanish are saying that because Catalonia is due to have an independence vote soon (and unlike Scotland, the independence side will win, probably easily). So the Spoanish are playing games to try and weaken their local separtists.
Oh, the Spanish are absolutely trying to cause problems for their own local opposition but, because of that, it will inevitably create some for the scots. Having said that I think any new state formed would have to face serious questions about their political intentions, (voting and so on), and financial viability in the long term. I don't think it's unreasonable for the rest of the euros to ask for clarification about this stuff. It's OK Salmond saying it'll be a piece of cake and 'Trust me... it'll be fine guys', but that's not really an answer to the many questions he'll face. It'll also be interesting what happens with new orders for RN fighting ships in the future if the scots leave. There's no major developed, militarised nation that has that sort of vessel built abroad as far as I know and if the rest of the UK DID decide that's what we want to do I can't help thinking we could get them built a bloody sight cheaper in Korea or wherever. Of course, if we did Salmond would be screaming blue murder.
Call me cynical, but I am believe Salmond does not really want independence, but a federal system. But he cannot say that. It looks like the independence side will lose but Scotland gets the shipyard, maximum devolution and other things. Salmond gets to claim victory anyway and say "look at how well we have run Scotland, re-elect us" (and the SNP has done a pretty good job)
Nah, you're in finance aren't yer? Everyone in that is a soft, fluffy-bunny type creature that believes in elves, the sugarplum fairy and suchlike. Everyone knows that An enhanced federal thing gives them the maximum benefit with the minimum of risk. Whether Salmond realises that is another matter because, IMO, his judgement isn't the best. Of course, if they have a federal system it becomes harder for the rest of the UK's politicians not to push into something similar for them. It's one thing for the English to accept their taxes paying to move government jobs, (tax offices and so on), to Wales and Northern Ireland as a 'deprived area of the UK'... it's a whole 'nother thing for us to pay for that in another 'federal area' with it's own heavily devolved parliament raising it's own taxes and so on. That's as close to another country as it's possible to get and The Daily-Hate Mail will be up in arms. Well, they start OFF up in arms don't they, but y'know what I mean
The plot thickens... http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/13/no-currency-union-indpendent-scotland-george-osborne No currency union with independent Scotland, George Osborne confirms Chancellor tells audience in Edinburgh that currency union between Scotland and rest of UK would be unworkable It would require UK taxpayers to promise to bail out Scottish banks; it would require the Scottish government to accept substantial controls over its spending and economic policy and would lead to significant doubts on whether Scotland would continue with a sterling pact into the future, Osborne said. International currency markets would attack the pound because a currency pact would be clearly weak. It would be unsustainable, the chancellor added. "Just look at what happened to the last two nations who tried to form a currency union following separation – Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Their union fell apart after only 33 days as capital flowed from one to the other in pursuit of the safe haven. I don't like the guy but, personally, I think the guy's just stating the bleedin' obvious. You can't expect tax-payers in the rest of the UK to guarantee the debts of another country. They'd have to try and get into the Euro and good luck with that if the scots refuse to accept their share of the debts from the financial crash which was down to Scottish banks to a fairly large extent. That means they'd have to try and have their own currency and, again... good luck with that with a country with a banking sector 50% BIGGER than places like Iceland, Ireland and Greece.
I think they would be welcome to join the euro. ASAIK if the Scots get independent they'd had to apply for EU membership anyway. But to get accepted they will have to join the Euro.
The thing is, they don't WANT to join the euro and, frankly, if they've just reneged on all their commitments to their previous currency, do you fellas really want them?
I know they didnt want to but they had to accept the euro. You cant have it all. Part of the UK and the pound, independent, membership and the euro, independant no membership and no euro. I can see them doing well with the euro just like a 2nd Ireland. They did well before their banksters thought it was a great idea to lose it all. From a middle european pov? Theyre welcome. They would do well. We would do well. A win-win. A look far into the future: despite the banking sector thing I think they would join the "north euro" group alongside Germany, Finland etc. Scotland would be like Finland, just with people speaking English. With the oil and the banks controlled I dont see them ever asking Brussels for money. If the euro works there, over time I guess youd guys see slowly but surely that the euro could be a great idea for you too.
There's a problem with that... https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/336401199697907713 Scottish banking sector as proportion of GDP is larger than Ireland, Iceland and Cyprus https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa..._scotland_analysis_financial_services_gdp.pdf Regarding the euro for the UK, personally I'd be MORE than happy with the idea but we'd have to sort out our banking system first. Of course, we'll have to do it anyway at some point.
What percentage threshold does the independent vote need to confirm independence? Is it 50+ 1 or is it a 2/3 majority...
Thank you. I don't like that 16 year old minors can vote not informed and cannot even have a fully functioning brain to make a correct decision on such a weighty issue. I also don't like that 800k scots in England cannot vote but 300k English voters can. Honestly I Scotland being independent would be a near fatal blow for labour. With just a rump England and Wales together the conservatives would rule the roost for a long time.
I think the UKIP are the flavor of this month they don't have a large enough voter base to win or play power broker in a general election.
They don't have to win anything... they just have to split the tory vote to allow the Labour party, (or possibly a Labour/Liberal coalition), to come to power. It's been estimated that if UKIP do well Labour could win an overall majority with 35% of the vote and that's CERTAINLY achievable.