Scheduling and the RPI

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by cpthomas, Feb 8, 2019.

  1. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've just finished three projects related to scheduling and the RPI, so I'll describe them here. I'm hoping that some of you involved with scheduling will contribute to this thread. Over the long term, I think airing issues the RPI causes for scheduling will be good and may generate a bigger push than there's been so far to get the NCAA to change its rating system.

    Project 1: This is an article I just published at the RPI and Bracketology for DI Women's Soccer Blogspace on why coaches should pay a lot of attention to the RPI when doing their non-conference scheduling. It has some startling -- even to me -- information about how important "smart" scheduling really is if your team has NCAA Tournament aspirations. Here's a link to the article: How Much Attention Should You Pay to the RPI Formula, In Your Non-Conference Scheduling?

    Project 2: This is an Excel workbook, Team Histories and Simulated 2019 Ranks, with a page for each team, showing information about its rank history using three different rating systems and also its rank history as a contributor to opponents' strengths of schedule. It also has other resources. All of the resources in the workbook are intended to help in figuring out who would be good opponents to play (and who wouldn't). The workbook is at the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer website, as a downloadable Excel workbook attachment at the bottom of the NCAA Tournament: Scheduling Towards the Tournament webpage. If you're involved in scheduling and your team has NCAA Tournament aspirations, you should download this workbook and use it.

    Project 3: I've created a Team Scheduling Tool that lets you try out different non-conference schedules to see how different opponents (and results) are likely to affect your RPI and other result data related to your NCAA Tournament prospects. It also lets you try out different results in your conference games. For this Tool, I create an Excel workbook tailored for your team. It's therefore necessary for you to ask me to create one for you and to give me an email address to send it to, if you are interested in trying it out. I have a number of coaches who now are using it, and I believe they're finding it really helpful.

    The Project 2 and Project 3 items work well together as companion resources, one helping you identify good possible opponents and the other helping you get a sense of how different possible opponents would compare in terms of what they would do for your NCAA Tournament prospects. Both of these resources are FREE.

    But above all, if you have any doubts about how important "smart" scheduling is, read the article I've linked above.
     
  2. Enzo the Prince

    Sep 9, 2007
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Really interesting stuff, as always, cp.
     
  3. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #3 cpthomas, Feb 16, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2019
    In the previous post, I referred to an article I posted at the RPI and Bracketology for Division I Women's Soccer Blogspace. That article described an experiment I did that indicated scheduling with a view to the how the RPI formula works can make a lot of difference in a team's ultimate ARPI rank. I used Clemson as one of the guinea pigs in the experiment. The results were so startling, to me, that I wanted to run a different experiment to see if it confirmed the results of the first one. So, I've now run a different experiment, again with Clemson as the guinea pig, this time simply taking the entire 2018 season and all its game results but replacing each of Clemson's non-conference opponents with an RPI equally ranked, but more RPI formula friendly, opponent. The results again are startling and confirm the results of the first experiment. If you're interested, you can read about the second experiment here:

    PAYING ATTENTION TO THE RPI FORMULA IN YOUR NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULING: FOLLOW UP
     
    FreshPow repped this.
  4. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With some mis-givings, I just have published a new article at the RPI and Bracketology for DI Women's Soccer Blogspace: So Your Conference Wants More of Its Teams in the NCAA Tournament: As a Group, How Much Attention Should Its Teams Pay to the RPI Formula? Answer: A Lot. Although the article focuses on the second tier of conferences after the Power 5, I think it will be instructive in relation to all conferences on the issue of non-conference scheduling and the RPI.

    My mis-givings don't have to do with how confident I am in the article's conclusions. Rather, they have to do with the substance of the conclusions: Due to the structure of the RPI, how a conference's teams as a group schedule non-conference opponents has a huge effect on their ARPI rankings and this is an effect over which they can exercise a good deal of control through "smart" RPI-related scheduling. If one or two second tier conferences were to start scheduling as the article indicates would be most advantageous to them from an RPI perspective, it could blow up the RPI rankings as we know them today.

    (I've also convinced myself of this: The RPI has got to go. Soon. And I say that having been a "with some qualifications" defender of the RPI in the past.)
     
    Cliveworshipper and FreshPow repped this.
  5. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Based on work I've been doing the past few months, I've just published an article at the RPI and Bracketology for D1 Women's Soccer Blogspace on NCAA Tournament At Large Selections: An Evolving Conference Landscape. It looks at the trend in at large selections from a Power 5 conference as compared to other conferences perspective and at the relationship between that trend, the RPI, and conferences' overall winning percentages in non-conference games.

    The article should be of particular interest to teams from the conferences that rank just below the Power 5, since those are the conferences that are trending towards fewer and fewer at large selections.
     
    espola repped this.

Share This Page