scenario in which the US will soon not be the only superpower

In the long term I think that the real challenge to US power will come in the Pacific. Either through renewed Russo-Sino economic-military cooperation or through increased economic and political cooperation in SE Asia, notably between China, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, et. al.

Of these two the former is the most likely. Check this...

China needs power to sustain economic growth. Coal, which accounts for the lion's share of personal and infrastructure power generation is impractical for coninued growth for reasons that should be obvious. Russia has huge untapped resources -- including petroleum -- in central and southern Siberia and in Kamchatka which could help it expand it's economy. What Russia needs is a way to ship it out of Siberia. There are additional cases to be made for this renewed alliance but this is just the most obvious.

The only thing holding it back presently are old antagonisims and Russia's self-conception as a "western" country. This could easily change as a result of medium-term demographic, economic and political changes in both countries.

 

But at the same time I agree that our current foreign policy actions run the risk of seriously fouling things up for us (U.S.) for some period of time.

I was dozing last night and flipped over to Charlie Rose, where he was interviewing the Editor-In-Chief of the Economist. Among this guy's main fears was that, "The US fails to learn the lessons of [Rome] and Britain."

In other words, it overreaches itself as a superpower by acting unilateraly and thus opening itself up for all the blame for everything that goes wrong in the world as well as giving groups and nations opposed to the status quo something to work against -- read alliances.

This (he said and I agree) is why we need to "go the extra mile" with the UN, France, Germany, et. al. to get people on board the Iraq thing. Because if we don't and it goes all pear-shaped there will be no one else to take the heat.

 

Russia and China will NEVER be military allies. Even under the shared banner of Communism, they couldn't get it together for more than a few years. I've said it before and I'll say it again, 10 years from now, our most important strategic allies will be Russia and India. All 3 countries share the same primary enemy (Islamofascist terrorism) and the same secondary enemy (Chinese expansionism, which is not a question of if but a question of when).


Alex

 

China will never be a serious economic or conventional military rival to the US. Their energy situation is too shakey and they don't have the excess capacity (in terms of technology or educated people) to use it if they got it. The only nations to watch are India and maybe Iran. The only thing Europe can do is piss us off.

But there is no way for any nation to rise to our level. For there to be another superpower, we would have to drop.

 

Well if Osama can be an ally of Iraq in your logic, how hard is it for you to imagine a russian- sino alliance?

 

Because the Russians and Chinese are rational, and they know that we will not bother them if they do not bother us or our allies (whereas Osama and Saddam already have bothered us).

Russia's future is with the west anyway.


Alex

 

So I'm in some country and I am say a democratically elected Socialist. I want to have a strong public healthcare system with healthcare for all. Maybe certain industries are government run. Higher taxes on the very rich. Protections for workers like bans on forced overtime and such. What happens, I bet the US Superpower we have now would probably try and topple me. I don't want the Americans running the world. My wife is American and she doesn't want it either. Who are the good guys?

 

But only if the US listens to the concerns of it allies. If the US continues to ignore Russia, Germany, France and China when it comes to foreign policy you cannot maintain that friendship

 

China is our ally??? That's pretty funny.


Alex

 

Paranoid, are we?


Alex

 

In the war on terror they are

But i guess that war is over with all the talk about Saddam

 

No they're not. I wouldn't be suprised if they're giving money to these groups under the table.


Alex

 

United States of Europe.

Bush is the guy pushing that to happen. Thank you.

 

Not really up on my history but didn't the CIA do this very thing to Peru or maybe it was Chile in the 70's

 

Sooner or later, something will fill the vacuum left by the collapse of the USSR. I can certainly forsee the day when the EU is on a par with the USA, filling that vacuum as a friendly, but competing, superpower.

 

Economicaly, it practicaly is, now.
With a larger market to boot.

 

These guys won't get along forever. Heck, the USA had a war within its own borders against herself.

These have more issues than amazon.com! Forget the past wars they had against each other, they have had simple but important success in getting past old thinking by creating a common currency and opening their borders.

Now, ironic that terrorists are having a field day getting around Europe. Even if they don't want to fight Iraq, for many reasons, the same nations, France and Germany have hundreds of "terrorists" in jail and a few they are getting ready to send to the USA.

Common interests indeed.

I really wish the US would open the border with Mexico.

 

There's a border? Could've fooled me. Our borders are as free as any "open" borders anywhere else in the world. Still.

Kevin

 

Well, the writer of this article believes the EU will surpass the US as a superpower.

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030128-034048-8582r

 

Chile, however that was during the Cold War, it wouldn't happen nowadays.


Alex

 

Economic maybe, but not military.


Alex

 

Really?

I would say that your attitude is just the reason this could happen, but I respect you position and know time helps us all grow.

Ironicly, just today at work I asked the dishwasher to change the fluorescent light bulb over the sink area. He was in the Air Force for years and had all this technical training and vast experiences. He was there for over 15 minutes. He couldn't figure it out.

I went over and showed him in under 15 seconds. I thought to myself...and this guy was protecting me during the Cold War?!

 

How about providing for everything that your "open borders" entail for Mexicans?

Not to open an old debate, but it's like you only want them to clean bathrooms, but not have any real chance to make more out of themselves.

Open?

 

This should have been your first clue that he's an idiot. The effin guy has years of "technical" training from the Air Force, yet he's your dishwasher. What, exactly, was his specialty? Bus driver? He sounds like a prime "washout" candidate. No pun intended.