Saturday 7 December 2024

I'm glad the kickoff is at 9 pm UK. Thanks Donnie (and maybe Fox).

 

And Pachuca. Los Tuzos have to travel to Ohio after all.

 

PSV Eindhoven from the Dutch Eredivisie

 

It's crazy how I use to really look forward to the state of the league address. In the past it was what would happen in the future that I never thought was possible but now it's fairly routine.... Yea that would be nice. Other than changing the schedule to what they do in Europe, most everything is pretty much routine.

 

Well everything is going to change in 2027.

World Cup boost, new CBA, Apple deal approaching mid-contract, another round of expansion???

 

MLS might even announce 2 more expansion cities in 2026 to start in 2028-2029- perhaps Indianapolis and Sacramento as both have stadium plans and city backing - its all about the investment team- the money to join MLS is just too good to pass-up

 

Doubtful. Sacramento doesn't have the deep pocketed ownership group that's necessary in today's MLS. Indy doesn't currently have an ownership group either (that's been publicly revealed). Not saying that there won't be future expansion, just at this moment in time there are not any obvious sure fire candidates.

 

I agree but unless you are dead set on a city these two both basically have a plan in place and a local government willing to cooperate. From Garber's comments today, I don't see a significant jump in money to the roster, although he did say something about negotiating with MLSPA.

 

The Pro-MLS mayor in Sacramento is out in January, as he didn't seek reelection. People are forgetting that the entry fee has gone up exponentially with the past two teams (Charlotte and San Diego). Then you have to factor in the rapidly rising startup costs for new teams.....

To get a MLS expansion team these days you need a Billionaire.... preferably more than one too in your group. Not just any Billionaire either, one that is fully committed to the cause long term. The days of the Jay Sugarman's, Dave Checketts', Flavio Augusto Da Silva's, etc. getting teams in MLS are LONG gone.

As for the last bit, well duh! Unless the league introduces a new mechanism for player acquisitions, in order to significantly raise the salary budget (or make significant changes to the budget structure) the league was ALWAYS going to need to negotiate that with the Player's Association. Neither side really wants to do this until after the World Cup in 2026 either.

 

I think the fundamentals of the new CBA will be set in 2026. Then there'll be a bunch of late changes if we see a WC bump, for instance if we see a huge increase in demand for STs.

The MLSPA will obviously want the majority of additional funding to go to the existing player base, because that's who they represent, while the (some) owners may want to be more ambitious.

Worst outcome is we see more legal action. The NASL and Revenent lawsuits will be over by then so Kessler will be anxious to have another bite at MLS.

One thing the PA won't want is a huge influx of overseas players. MLS is still well below Serie A and EPL.

Overseas Players
Serie A 61.3%
EPL 60.6%
Portugal 58.5%
Bel Pro 57.5%
MLS 51.9%

(As of October 2023. I think this counts Canucks as overseas).

 

The mayor might be out but the Yards is a project to expand the downtown and the stadium was viewed as a favorable project as it would generate some traffic. Don't forget the previous owner committed to spending money to help build the stadium. The current mayor wasn't even in office the first time so, I doubt that would change much with a new one. This isn't a situation where they have no room and are trying to get something done like New York and Miami. I don't see anymore expansion happening but these two cities would be front runner much like Cincinnati was because of the USL teams and some type of a plan. If you're a billionaire that really wants in to MLS, it would make more sense to just buy an existing team as it's cheaper.

 

New owner: $500 million for a shareholding plus setup costs and the cost of a stadium.
Average valuation (Forbes 2024): $678 million not including real estate.

 

More expansions going at $600M+ each more than likely. They'll have no problem finding takers just to later cry that for the past 30 years MLS is on the red and making no money at all. But hey, one day they'll make everything back...some day.

 

This! Some billionaire should offer to buy Montreal and Vancouver.

 

Canadian teams cost more to run.

 

That would be accounted for in their valuations.

I don't think anyone is going to lose their shirt over an MLS investment. Not since San Jose became Houston at any rate.

However sports teams' valuations can't go up forever, can they?

 

Something, something...Precourt trying to take the Crew to Austin.....something, something.......

And do what with them? Move them to the United States? These theoretical billionaires would not only have to shell out $300M+ for either team, but they would then have the startup costs of moving them to a new market (Stadium, team facility, academy, etc.).

 

I don't think moving them was the thought but spending more on the team. I could be wrong but since Toronto wasn't included...

 

Still cheaper than a new franchise that will probably break the $600M mark. And they also need to shell out money for a stadium regardless if it's new franchise or relocating an existing one.

 

According to Forbes: Montreal $430, Vancouver $420 million a year ago.

Those Forbes valuations have proven to be pretty accurate based on actual shares traded.