San Jose Earthquakes - Austin FC (Saturday, 10/18) pre/in/postgame thread [R]

Bruce was confident that we were going to have a good 2nd half of the season, and said exactly that. So why didn't it happen? Either 1) he miscalculated, and perhaps the league is starting to pass him by, or 2) his assessment of the players and our prospects was just fine but suddenly the players magically started playing worse all at the same time.

 

I don't take Bruce for much of a hype/team talk coach. Maybe in the early days of his coaching career?!? He just always seems like an old grumpy sarcastic old man. Can't deny what he's won but I personally don't get the Bruce allure. He's certainly gotten teams to play well over the yrs. but he just doesn't seem to inspire much these days. It's as you've said Jazzy, he probably expects everyone to be professional but at the same time it's nice seeing your coach fired up.....Bruce doesn't seem that type nowadays. Obviously whatever he's saying or not saying is not working. We're just as bad as before. The hot beginning of the season has blurred the lines a bit but we suck just the same as before.

 

Initially I thought - OK, I get it - this guy sees the game really well. He started Beau - which none of us saw coming, and Beau did really well, he started Ricketts at the beginning of the season, who tailed off a bit but I still prefer him over Costa, he re-signed Judd who turned out to be a useful addition to the roster, etc. But since then, some of his moves have me scratching my head - loaning out our 1 sure-bet HG 19-year old player, loaning out Hernán, our top goal scorer from last year, all competitions, and who is our only true CAM, acquiring and playing Noel Buck (not sure what he does well yet), etc.

And then his theory of the game - after losses he'd always talk about "the mistakes". We just need to stop making mistakes. Next week, more mistakes, another loss. Yeah, next game we really need to stop making mistakes! I'm not a fan of that kind of theory of the game - players playing to "not make a mistake" are not gonna play well. They're gonna be tight and thinking too much. Better to build a system that works and is resilient to the inevitable mistakes.

By point of contrast, here's a postgame with Wilfried Nancy. They were playing NYCFC on their small pitch, NYCFC pressed them and won the ball and got dangerous chances from that. Whomever the (one?) reporter is, kept lofting him softballs that he could have answered with the pat "making mistakes" but he just kept saying that their plan was to "get in behind with the wingbacks". He doesn't talk about the defense at all, just thinking about the attack.

 

Well, it could be visiting my son and granddaughter in Seattle or my other son and fiancé in Denver...part of it's just getting old and not caring as much...part of it is being season ticket holders of both Earthquakes and Bay FC (a lot of ties and losses).

We still have season tickets for next year, but I'm planning to retire after next year. At that point, who knows?

It's always been less about the event/entertainment and more about the competition. We shall see...

 

A win or a draw by either Dallas or RSL and we can throw another season in the shitter.

 

I think we are eliminated only if they both win or tie their games this weekend. If that happens Decision Day is "Non-Decision Day" for us. We are hanging by a thread.

 

I can hardly wait!

 

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/how-fc-dallas-real-salt-lake-can-clinch-playoffs-this-weekend

 

@Goodsport - we need a “playoff hopes deathwatch” thread!

 

I second the motion. Two games tonight. If neither RSL or Dallas lose, we're done.

 

Quakes: not eliminated before Decision Day

 

Yes, and depending on how the LA - Dallas game goes, the Quakes could wind up hosting a postseason game (play-in game) after Decision Day.

Decision Day games of relevance for us:

Colorado - LAFC
Vancouver - Dallas
St. Louis - RSL
Quakes - Austin

 

From Reddit user Btornado14... playoff scenarios:

 

Yup. And, if the Quakes beat Austin and RSL and FCD lose and CRapids don't win, we would be the 8th place team, earning a home game for the play-in. Decision day will be much more fun this year. We were out of the picture before the season even got going last year. Of course, none of this will matter in we can't win our home game.

 

If W-L-D were equally likely for each team our chances would be only about 14%. About 40% from above and then a 33% chance we win. But looking at the matchups - strength of opponent + home / away, I think our chances are much better. MLS Postseason Probabilities has us at 36%, which “feels” about right to me intuitively.

 

So … you’re saying there’s a chance?

Not being eliminated before “decision day” is an improvement over some previous seasons, like last year. But, we’re setting the bar really low now. We’ve had a poor season, getting weaker in the second half. This is a bad sign. That Bruce doesn’t recognize his best players is problematic. Unless Bruce gets more help from his staff next year, we could be looking at a truly dismal season in 26.

This is the Luchi illusion. Do well in the first half of the season, then chew it in the second half. But your overall season-long record looks OK. Then, the next season you get your ass kicked out of the gate. That’s my big fear with il Brucé. We lost several games down the stretch because of poor coaching. We could start that way next season.

Go Quakesfans!!

 

Another little Decision Day wrinkle is that Austin’s place in the standings is at this point baked in at 6th. They can’t catch Seattle and Portland can tie them in points but Austin holds their place by virtue of wins.

So it’s possible that Austin rests some starters, but I’d be careful about concluding that this necessarily makes it an easier game. The bench guys could come in hungry looking to make a positive impression for postseason option decisions, Austin could play free and easy while we grit our teeth in taut determination, afraid to be the guy who makes the mistake that ends our season, etc.