Russia will not only advance out of the group, but over perform

Aye, just check the bets odds. Even the bookies know that Russia will overperform.

 

I saw them this Confeds. They're very mediocre. I'm still going with Uruguay and Egypt.

 

I think Russia has a great chance to qualify for the game

 

Stupid thread.

 

I think people are really overstating how mediocre Russia were. They were actually not that bad. Portugal and Mexico are just better teams, but they did beat New Zealand comfortably.

Put up great fights vs Portugal and Mexico, in fact Mexico's second goal was a miscommunication and collision between Russian players if I am remembering correctly.

 

That's not much of a measuring stick.

Meh, I didn't think Portugal struggled that much against the Russians while Mexico was a derply-coached team that's wildly inconsistent from game to game. Russia is just not that good and the only saving grace they have is a vanilla group.

 

Portugal did not struggle that much, but Mexico did. Russia dominated them the first half. Yes Mexico is inconsistent but they are still better than Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and arguably better than Uruguay by some people, although I personally think Uruguay is better at the moment.

And also Egypt hardly played well in African Cup of Nations either. They were very lucky to make the final. Morocco dominated them for most of the game especially until Egypt got the goal, and were even missing a few players. Egypt also had a pretty easy group. Ghana is not nearly as good as they used to be.

Russia vs Egypt will be a great match and both of them actually play very similar way. Both are defensive and cautious. However I tip Russia because they are the hosts, and will probably have quite a few controversial decisions in their favor. 2010 was the only World Cup where the hosts did not advance, and they were in a group where Uruguay and Mexico were clearly superior and South Africa were never a good team.

Also Russia has a pretty good defense as well. In Euro 2016 they were very mediocre but they did draw with England and put up a fight against Slovakia. Wales beat them heavily because Russia had no choice but to play an open game in order to advance. Also Wales was a good team in Euro 2016.

The main difference between Russia and Egypt is that Russia plays as a team, but Egypt relies a lot on Salah, which I believe will benefit Russia especially at home.

 

Does anyone seriously think that Russia wont get out of their group at home? I can assure you, whatever needs to happen for Russia to qualify if they get off to a bad start will happen, although I do think they are good enough to get to the knockouts regardless.

 

I agree. Especially because they don't actually have that tough a group.

 

This is the weakest, but also the most balanced, group in the World Cup. Any result is possible in practically any of the games. While Saudi Arabia is the weakest of the bunch, and Uruguay are the strongest on paper, there isn't a single match up in this group where the result is anywhere near a certainty. Even Uruguay v Saudi Arabia (I pick Uruguay to win but it is not certain).

As for Russia, they are alright. At the level of Egypt. With home advantage, that should be enough for them to advance from this group. But I would not say the Russians are assured of advancing either. Indeed, they will possibly need to get all 3 points from their opening match against Saudi Arabia that will kick off their World Cup campaign and while the Russians will be favored, that is not a sure thing for them either. Overall, I give the Russians around a 55-60% chance but not more.

 

These are the odds for who will advance:

Uruguay 79%
Russia 57%
Egypt 44%
Saudi Arabia 24%

 

They sound right to me.

 

Who's odds? Bookies?

But yea, I won't argue much with them, looks about right.

 

I wrote them. From what I see. I didn't get those odds from anywhere.

 

See this for all group odds: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/2018-world-cup-group-stage-odds.2080139/

 

Egypt are much more of a solidly drilled team than Russia. They are a very good tournament team. The Italy of Africa. Ever hear of Hector Cuper? Look him up.

 

...said no one ever

 

While I do agree that Russia are relative favorites to go through together with Uruguay, I think much of it is simply down to their host status.

I see them as a fairly average team (definitely among the weaker European squads at the WC) that doesn't really have a clear edge over a very disciplined and tactically solid Egypt side that also has an excellent world-class player currently in top form among their ranks (Salah, obviously). That's assuming that Uruguay are the best team on paper here and will take one of the top two spots.

I should also point out that ever since WC 2002, when both South Korea and Japan were a very positive surprise, host nations that aren't footballing superpowers have disappointed under the weight of expectations and failed to progress out of group stage at every Euro and WC. Austria/Switzerland in 2008, South Africa in 2010, Poland/Ukraine in 2012, ALL of them failed despite home status and even samo favorable groups in certain cases. It's possible that being expected to go through by both the home and global public, as well as a political leadership that puts a lot of emphasis on sporting prestige, might heap a ton of pressure on a team that's in the process of rebuilding after very poor showings at the last two major tournaments (Euro 2016 and WC 2014). Home soil status might actually be more of a burden then a blessing for the Russians.

 

Of course Russia should advance this is not the group of death.

 

The only host nation to have ever failed to advance from its group at the World Cup was South Africa in 2010. And they came closer than they would ever come if they had not been host.

I fundamentally disagree with you on this point. You can draw the parameters in a way that might imply some facts behind it, but having watched football closing for decades, I know that is just not right. Being hosts doesn't guarantee anything, but tournament hosts will often do a lot better than they would otherwise. And those benefits can be quite lasting too.

Japan and South Korea both recorded their first ever World Cup wins as hosts. But they didn't just record their first wins: South Korea made it all the way to the semifinal and Japan to the quarterfinal. Since then, their pedigree and profile has raised and they have been able to occasionally do well in the World Cup, such as in 2010.

Mexico changed its fortunes around from punching bag to a side always in the R-16 after it hosted a couple of World Cups. Before 1986 (which Mexico hosted), the only other time they had advanced from their group was in 1970 -- when they were hosts as well. After 1986, they have always been in the R-16.

With a little luck, even South Africa might have advanced. And if they had advanced, the benefits for them would have likely been more lasting too.

Russia have no excuse not to make it out of the gift of a group they have been handed. The pressure might be on their players but so would the momentum and excitement and the balance of greater motivation from the expectations. Of course, their players can prove unprepared for the challenge, but Russia as a whole (from their federation to their coach and down to their players) have no excuse to mess this up.

 

Japan made it to the round of 16, not QF.

 

My memory failed me and my bad. Thanks for the correction. But the point I was trying to make doesn't change.

 

I have never rooted against a host, or any team possibly, as much as I'll be rooting against Russia.

 

Russia will make it out of their group. If they get Portugal in the next round they will advance to the quarterfinals where they will lose to Argentina.