Only 3 teams have booked their ticket to Russia 2018, namely Russia (as hosts), Brazil and Iran. 29 other teams will eventually make it. Who will those team be. Who won't make it. Who would you think has the potential to surprise and which side will be most likely to flop. These and any other football related issues regarding the road to Russia 2018 until the draw for the tournament can be discussed in this thread. Incidentally, in that last World Cup, the most surprising results came from Costa Rica in my opinion. In Russia 2018, and not just because I am a fan of Iran's team, I think Iran will prove to be the team that will surprise the most. P.S. I admit part of the impetus for me starting this thread is Rickdog, who I noticed complaining about posts in other threads which discuss the road to Russia 2018 but which don't quite fit the format of either the thread meant to as the "elimination timeline" or the one about the the order of teams qualifying to the tournament. And I noticed that while we have still have the Brazil 2014 sub-forums, we don't have any threads I could find about a general discussion about the road to Russia 2018 here.
The following describes the situation in the AFC: In Group A like Group B, 8 games have been played and there are 2 more games left for each of the sides. South Korea (13 pts) and Uzbekistan (12 pts) are competing to see which will finish 2nd behind Iran (20 pts), and which will finish 3rd instead. There is also Syria (9 pts) in this mix, which has a remote chance to leapfrog both of them to finish 2nd and a slightly more realistic chance to finish 3rd. Qatar (7 pts) and China (6 pts) are already out of contention for an automatic spot, but still have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. However, unless you simply like the mathematical exercise, the real fight that is left in this group is between South Korea and Uzbekistan. South Korea's next match will be at home against Iran. The Koreans have lost the last 4 games they have played against Iran, including the last 3 World Cup qualifying matches between the two sides. Indeed, their record against Iran isn't something that would give them much confidence, as they have only managed one win the last 10 times they have faced off against Iran. While Iran has clinched its qualification and is guaranteed to win the group, at the very least Iran will be intent on keeping their record of not conceding any goals in these qualifiers intact. So its not exactly as Iran will be rolling over to make things easy for the Koreans. The Uzbeks, on the other hand, are considered perennial chokers and they haven't been all that impressive either in these qualifiers. They certainly weren't impressive against Iran neither at home, or in their last match in Tehran, both of which they lost. Their next match is away against China. Since Lippi has taken over the helm with China, China have only lost to Iran and famously beat S.Korea. Still, they haven't done enough to turn around their fortunes and are right now stuck at the bottom of the group. My own sense is that nothing will be quite settled when South Korea travel to face Uzbekistan for their last match in this group. Which one of the two will end up in the playoffs and which will qualifying automatically will likely be decided on 5 September in Taskkent. In Group B, Japan (17 pts) are the only side to have clinched anything, namely finishing no worse than 3rd place in the group and, hence, a playoff spot against the 3rd place team in Group A. Saudi Arabia (16 pts) and Australia (16 pts) compete with Japan for the top 3 places in this group. Thailand and Iraq are already eliminated in this group. The UAE (10 pts), boasting one of Asia's most interesting talents in Omar Abdulrahman, failed to capitalize on the chance to be one of the serious contenders in this group after dropping points against Thailand in their last match. While they still have a mathematical chance, realistically they are out too. Saudi Arabia's next match, however, will be away against the UAE. I am biased against the Saudis, so I hope they lose. And UAE's "mathematical chance" will probably give them enough motivation to not simply roll over for the Saudis. My prediction is that this game will end in a draw. Australia, on the other hand, travel to Japan for a critical and important match against the Japanese. I think you have to look into ancient history books to find the Socceroos managing to beat Japan in Japan. Indeed, in their last 7 outings against Japan since 2011, they haven't managed a single win and have 3 losses and 4 draws, all but one of those draws in Australia. In other words, Japan should be favored to beat Australia at home and doing so, they will clinch their qualification to the World Cup. That will then mean that on 5 September, Saudi Arabia host a Japanese side that don't have much to sweat for in their hot and humid desert. Even so, hopefully, the Japanese will at least deny the Saudis a win. Which, if the Japanese do manage, will then mean the Socceroos will be able to grab an automatic spot by beating Thailand at home. To make it all short and concise, Iran will be in Russia 2018. You can expect Japan to be there, but its not a given. The case for South Korea or Uzbekistan in Group A and Australia or Saudi Arabia in Group B is too close to call with any degree of confidence.
UEFA will always have good teams in the playoffs or eliminated after their groups. Portugal won a playoff last time. France, Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy are second or worse now. Countries who have improved liked Wales and Iceland are also second or worse. In CONMEBOL, if Argentina doesn't qualify that will be a bigger surprise than any country who qualifies. In OFC, it would be a surprise if New Zealand lost to Solomon Islands or beat the CONMEBOL fifth place team. CAF has only played 2 out of 6 games. Algeria and Ghana, who both qualified for the last two World Cups and advanced in one of them, trail by 5 points when only the winners qualify. Recent Africa Cup of Nations champions Cameroon (4 points back) and Zambia (5 points back) are also unlikely to qualify. Senegal, who is second in CAF in the FIFA Rankings and leads CAF in the ELO Ratings, is in third and 1 point back. The CONCACAF order is not surprising. All six countries are in the position that the most people in my prediction contest predicted them to be in.
I guess, for me, the tournament will have the requisite mixture of quality and surprise if something like 30 of the 32 teams are the "usual suspects", but with a couple of the less notable "usual suspects" failing to qualify and a couple of newcomers to show themselves. And you always need a Cinderella side among those who qualify - a side that ends up hugely exceeding expectations and makes it passed the group stage and beyond.
For some reason I expect teams that I consider "Eastern European" teams to do relatively well. Teams like Croatia, Serbia, Poland all battling to make it to the quarters or deeper. I don't expect much from Russia though (that is the one exception). Assuming Colombia is healthy with a healthy Falcao (which is always a coin flip) I expect them to be a contender to make it to the semis; however would not be surprised to see them fall flat before that round depending on the draw. I expect the USA to compete for the round of 16. But knowing the history of the USA in Europe that will not be easy. A lot can change in a year though but those are my current gut feelings.