For the last few years I've kept a spreadsheet that helps keep track of the playoff picture, the strength of schedule, etc. I hope these will help give the background for @UdiHrant's great charts. The Union are headed into the final third of the season. They have 24 points from 22 matches played (1.09 ppg). That's really bad (16th out of 19 teams on PPG). The slightly good news is that 8 out of the Union's 12 remaining games are at home, where the Union fare slightly better (1.22 ppg, 15th out of 19 teams). The somewhat better news is that the Eastern Conference is terrible. Adjusted for home & away PPG, only 5 teams in the East are on pace to finish with more than 41 points (DCU, SKC, TFC, NE, RBNY). That means the playoff threshold is probably going to be considerably lower than it has been in years past (thank Houston for going into the tank this year, and Chicago and RBNY for conspiring to draw as often as possible). Top 3 in the East is almost certainly out of the question. The Union would have to play at a Supporters Shield level (2ppg) just to get to 48 points by season's end. DC, SKC, and Toronto will get to the mid 40s even if their form takes a nosedive. But the 4th and 5th spots will likely be had with 42 points, unless both the Revs and Red Bull decide to get their acts together. The Union could get to 42 points by getting 18 points out of their last 12 matches. That means 1.5 ppg (just behind Real Salt Lake's pace for the season). That's a tall order for this team, but not impossible. Strength of schedule helps. When you factor in home & away ppg, the Union are tied for the second easiest strength of schedule from here to the end of the season. Their opponents average only 1.18 ppg. Unfortunately, the only team ahead of them on strength of schedule is Columbus, whose opponents only scratch out 1.08 ppg. Toronto (1.18 ppg) and Chicago (1.22 ppg) are right there as well, and will be fighting for playoff position. Houston is at 1.29ppg, and even though they look wretched they're not out of it yet. For the Union to give themselves a chance, they will probably have to win 4 matches at the absolute minimum (3 wins is possible, but that's if they go undefeated from here on out, which is unlikely). Montreal, San Jose, Houston and Chicago all come to PPL, and are the easiest matches left based on ppg. If they manage to win 4, then all they need to do is avoid losing more than 3. Their toughest matches remaining (based on home/away ppg) are at Houston, at Toronto, at DC and hosting KC. Survive those matches, don't choke against bad teams at home...and they could be on their way to the playoffs. And still probably lose in the first round
With the win tonight, and columbus' loss we now sit in playoff position on goal diff. Given our form (4-1-4) since the Galaxy match and the fact we have 7 of the last games at home, we should probably be a little better than 50/50 to make the playoofs. That's a proposition I would have thought ridiculous two months ago.
At the risk of sounding like Polyanna, the U is back above the line! The platoon is back in full force. The games in hand are pretty much gone at this point. We have Carlos back in the fold. We have Rais between the pipes for a run (I think!?). With a big win on Tuesday in Dallas, and a bunch of home matches to follow, we could be in for quite a run as Fall approaches. I'm excited again... It's fun to go to PPL right now. Hopefully Seba is OK, Maidana is ready to roll, and we can blast FC Dallas. C'mon the U!
Agreed. It's fun again. Even when they look like crap when they win, they win. I was pleasantly surprised when they didn't give up an equalizer last night. The new look Union! And thank god for a garbage East.
We've climbed to the point that it now makes us Western Conference fans. Rooting for Portland and LA. A road win at Houston is a major lift to playoff chances and also hurts RBNY's. A draw or loss is a big swing for RBNY in their favor.
Frankly, I'd put our odds higher than that. The numbers don't know that we got a new coach and two WC veterans recently. This team over the course of a season is probably good for 1.5 ppg.
Of the 11 remaining MLS matches, only 3 are against teams with a worse PPG- home/away to HOU and home to CHI. 6 matches are against teams with a higher PPG (SJE,@TFC,TFC,@RBNY,@DCU,SKC) and the home/away with CMB is crucial since we're currently separated (and in 5th) on a 2 goal difference. The fun part? If we win Tuesday, that USOC final is in between @DCU and CHI. Do we throttle back out lineup @DCU to try and beat SEA/CHI? Will they be gassed (or worse, crushed) from the midweek making the CHI match a trap game? I know that after being down so long that seeing the U above the waterline has heretofore unseen levels of optimism breaking out. Go on Platoon, get crazy with the cheeze wiz. You've earned it. The odds are totally in our favor now!!!! Valdes!!! Vamos!!
The movement up the standings comes courtesy of some poor performances from EC opponents, NER in particular. NE just went 1-9 in its last 10 games. Talk about cratering. Columbus and PCNJ have been middling while Chicago is a draw factory. Houston continues to tank hard. I'll take the reversal of fortunes but it's hard to see this team building a successful foundation around this ugly counterattacking style, even if it produces results against cellar dwellers like Montreal. One and done in the playoffs isn't exactly high aspirations.
No..... But it beats the hell out not getting into the playoffs! Lighten up. When we finally win the MLS Cup, will you be the guy complaining that it's meaningless because we can't win CONCACAF or the Club World Cup?
I'm in the middle of some projects tonight, so I can't update this thread now, but the gist is: I would not go so far as to say the Union have a better than 50% shot at the playoffs. If everyone continues at their current pace, the Union will still miss the playoffs (New England edges them, just barely). The Revs aren't as good as their unbeaten streak, but they're not this bad either (especially if they get Jermaine Jones). Union's schedule is fairly easy, the only problem is that Columbus, New England, Houston, and Chicago all have easier schedules, on overall PPG averages. 3 points from Montreal at home is holding serve, not gaining ground. Matches against Houston and Columbus matches are where the season can turn.
Don't forget the Toronto Derby the first week of September. If Curtin thinks pushing for the 3rd spot is possible, the U need at least 4 points out of that to make ground on them.
New England: Agudelo > Teal Bunbury. New England is really missing Agudelo this season. IF they sign Jermaine Jones, he hasn't played in almost 2 months. Late season signings usually (not always) have a tough time adjusting to MLS, and making an impact. Columbus: They need Arrieta back really soon, as they lack punch up top for all of the great service Higuain plays in. Their lack of a striker could have them out of the playoffs by the time the Union play them twice in October. Chicago: They're unpredicatable at this point. I can see them easily going on a run, yet just as easily going in the tank. They were fortunate to beat NY this week. (you can add the Jermaine Jones stuff here too) Houston: Difficult to bet against Kinnear. Can definitely see them nip 5th place.
Not sure which way, 7th in the east and 8 and 9 are 2 points back and have a game in hand. One fell swoop and we're looking at the 4th overall draft pick next year.
Yeah, not a catastrophe, but the results definitely did not go the Union's way this week. They are once again 16th in the league on PPG (1.13). They boosted their home PPG to 1.4, which is mediocre, but that's an improvement. They'll need to continue improving that number, since they have 7 home games remaining out of their 10. The pace numbers are not promising: SKC 59.5 DCU 57.41 TFC 49.87 RBNY - 42.89 CBUS - 42.5 NER - 41.58 Union - 39.59 The Union cannot realistically catch Sporting or DC. Toronto is almost out of reach, as well. So barring something crazy, we're talking about 2 spots, with Columbus, New York, New England, Philly, Chicago and Houston all in range. Bad news: besides Columbus, all of those teams have a game in hand. Worse news: if any 2 of those teams play well enough to push that red line above 43 points, I think it's basically over for the Union. Strength of schedule is not that big a help anymore. Union have an easy schedule (opponents = 1.23 ppg). But Columbus (1.09 ppg), Toronto (1.13ppg) and Houston (1.22ppg) all have it easier. New England's is also not that bad (1.29 ppg). The Union will need 15 points out of 10 matches to get to 42 points, and they need to hope that Columbus doesn't go on a run, that New England continues to slide, and that they can suddenly turn themselves into a team that consistently banks points. Remaining matches, in ascending order of opponents PPG: vs Houston (.36ppg on the road) vs San Jose (.75ppg on the road) vs RBNY (.92ppg on the road) vs CHI (1ppg on the road) vs CBUS (1.17 ppg on the road) vs TFC (1.33ppg on the road) @ CBUS (1.33 ppg at home) @ TFC (1.6ppg at home) @ SKC (1.75ppg at home) @ DCU (2.08 ppg at home) If the Union can get 4 wins and 3 draws out of that, it'd get them to 42 points. Unfortunately the Open Cup final lands between 2 must-win home games (vs Houston and RBNY).
Albeit with totally different logic, the numbers at my end are quite similar too, between 3~4 wins & 39~42 points. Projection of Phily's remaining games by Most Recent Meetings in 2014, 2013 or even 2012 (for opponents from the Opposite Conference), doesn't look too promising though: http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/team/matches.php?teamId=2669 2014-08-15 Houston Dynamo (A) - Most Recent @ Houston on 2013-07-06: 0-1 Loss. Actual: 0-2 Loss. 2014-08-24 San Jose Earthquakes (H) - 1-2 Loss. 2014-09-03 Toronto FC (H) - 1-0 Win. 2014-09-06 Toronto FC (A) - 1-1 Tie. 2014-09-13 New York Red Bulls (H) - 3-1 Win. [2014-09-16: USOC Final] Seattle Sounders (H) - 2-2 Tie. 2014-09-20 Houston Dynamo (H) - 0-0 Tie. 2014-09-27 D.C. United (A) - 1-1 Tie. 2014-10-02 Chicago Fire SC (H) - 1-2 Loss. 2014-10-11 Columbus Crew (H) - 3-0 Win. 2014-10-18 Sporting Kansas City (H) - 1-2 Loss. 2014-10-26 Columbus Crew (A) - 1-2 Loss. That would be a run of 3W-4L-3T for the last 10 games (12 points), adding on top of the current 6W-9L-9T through Aug-17 (27 points), for an eventual record of 9W-13L-12T (39 points), good for just 8th in the East (16th Overall)... Perhaps 6th Overall Pick (for being 16th Overall), considering there will be 2 Expansion Teams next season?
Either way, I want a USOC win and crash out hard in the season to get that Allocation double dip like DC did last year. A USOC loss and it's like 2012 all over again
For the second week in a row, bad news in terms of Eastern Conf results. It might take more like 44 points to make the playoffs in the East. The Union need to play almost at a Supporters Shield pace to get there. The game tomorrow is even bigger now. Need to start banking wins before it's too late.