Twenty-two! That's amazing. And that's also a big hole in your lives after that long. We don't have pets but recognize the role they play in lots of peoples' lives; best wishes.
She was around for almost all of my kids’ lives. One doesn’t get to say that often about a shelter rescue cat.
this shit sucks man. I'm really sorry. Go cry it out. I bawled on my parents porch when my dog died as a teenager. It helped me get out just how much that dumb dog meant to me.
Was referring to seasonal influenza and the vaccination rates. Is the current one projected to kill 100-200k?
Those are the numbers I heard for a U.S. "good scenario" death number for Covid-19. Sorry, I just said that without any sort of reference. That's horrifying when you say it out loud. Yeah, the US might lose essentially the population of Salt Lake City, and it'll be a good scenario. Jesus ********ing Christ. ******** this virus.
We're about 2 week out from what experts are expecting to be 2,500+ deaths a day for at least a two week period - that means approx 35,000 deaths on top of the 5,000 already reported, and probably another 25K (my guess) at least in the next couple of weeks. It sounds like that's a given, and for the most part unavoidable. What happens beyond that apparently has a lot of variables including how each of us conduct ourselves. This means we could close the month of April with over 65,000 American deaths from this. Updated: as my wife corrected me
I know there is interest in this subject here. It looks like the 30% false negative rate for tests is still holding. https://www.wsj.com/articles/questi...01?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/MngtrVKcon
Reminiscing on this data from the 1st of April which was pointing to 65K US deaths by the end of the month (after only 5K to that point). That's what my model, and the experts models were showing. Seemed a bit surreal at the time, but it looks like we're right on target for that, unfortunately. Still a bit surreal. New models, according to local medical experts show that Utah should expect a two-pronged surge - first in early June and the 2nd portion in mid-July. I don't have the details (wife is a nurse manager and gets frequent updates on this stuff), but would like to encourage of each of us not to let our guard down too much. I'm hoping that a "surge" by local standards isn't anything near the loss of life that's been seen elsewhere. Stay safe. Note: spike in US deaths shown on Apr 15 is actually a retro correction with the data of deaths attributed to Covid.
I spent much of Friday and Saturday just shaking my head at people. The weather was nice so I drove around a bit. I stopped in a few parking lots just to see how people were social distancing and wearing masks. I was very disappointed. Tons of people were going in and out of stores without masks. Some stores mandate distancing in the outside waiting lines though. Outside at a Home Depot parking lot people were not being very careful about distancing. My wife went to the downtown Smith’s Friday after work. She said it wasn’t busy, but 3/4 of the customers were not wearing masks. My wife is a nurse manager too. Her hospital had begun the planning process to restart elective surgeries. Last week they shelved it because their COVID case occupancy is still rising. They are now concerned they might reach the feared over-burden point.
I'm hearing that the number is likely much higher, even close to 100,000k now, due to under reporting. I haven't seen, but it would be interesting to look at average total deaths over the last few years for the months of March&April, and compare to this year. That would capture everything, and give us a sense of what the effect CV-19 has had.
I checked the CDC monthly mortality data several weeks ago. They only recently posted the March 2019 mortality numbers. Everything prior to that is available. They won’t post March 2020 numbers until March 2021. The sad truth about the number of cases, number of deaths, etc. will not be known for a while. Some of it will take retrospective studies to determine.
until it directly effects them, a lot of people don't realize how serious a situation is. I went on a fishing trip this weekend and did my very best to distance and be smart, but you can't control others. Which brought me to the thought of maybe I shouldn't have gone. It was certainly the lower risk option. But my mental health needed out of this house/part of town. If I get it I'll live with a lot of regret and fear, but I also know I'm in a much better place emotionally having gone. I'd also be slow to judge people on first glance, as well. There is no excuse for not being 6 feet away from strangers, or wearing a mask in public places like that; but I've seen the reaction to people going to parks as a bit over the top. The human body needs exercise and the outdoors, otherwise we're weakening our immune systems and making the possibility of this virus doing serious damage even worse. I am 100% NOT advocating a herd mentality approach. I do think Utah, largely, is very lucky to not have density that requires a full blown shelter in place type lock down, though. I really wish Herbert would have issued a state stay at home order like the majority of other states, but we've seemed to do ok, all things considered, without it thus far.
Interesting related article and tweet thread about this very topic: NEW: a lot of data on reported Covid deaths is highly suspect, so we’ve been looking into excess mortality — how many more people than usual have been dying around the world in recent weeks?Story by me, @ChrisGiles_ & @valentinaromei (free to read): https://t.co/EiE5Q3OSmR pic.twitter.com/AiTdBnBma9— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 26, 2020
I read that yesterday. It’s pretty interesting. I had trouble determining if the graphs showed the estimated number of COVID deaths exceeding the official COVID death counts though.
This article in the Trib was kind of interesting. I don't think it occurs to a lot of folks that the main reason to wear a mask isn't to prevent the wearer from getting sick; it's to prevent passing the virus from an infected person who isn't exhibiting any symptoms.
Exactly. I think that’s part of the problem. Mindset: “I’m not that worried about COVID even if I do catch it, so I’m not going to wear a mask”, whereas it should be “If I’m infected I could infect up to 5 others, so I’m going to wear a mask”. I contacted the UDOH and recommended they step up their mask education game as the weather gets better. There is some evidence that the virus is spread airborne rather than mostly via respiratory droplets, so joggers huffing and puffing without masks make me uneasy.l (although I realize masks and aerobic exercise don’t mesh well). That’s why I wear a mask outside unless I’m just working in the yard well away from anyone else. If I do any hiking this season I will select wide trails/roads or trails that aren’t heavily used.
As a person who regularly runs outside without a mask, what should I do? If I'm on a run where I know I can keep 10 feet from anyone (most of the time people wont be within hundreds of feet) do I need to wear that mask? I genuinely don't know what the answer is here. I had only thought of wearing the mask while going into places like the grocery store. From what I've seen, that was the directive given.
You are following the guidelines. What you describe sounds reasonable to me. I’m in a high risk group so am taking the distancing and prevention measures a step further than the guidelines. Do I wish everybody would consider us high riskers? You bet! Do I realize most don’t? You bet! So in that regard us high riskers have to be smart about this too. If we knowingly place ourselves where we can be exposed, then that’s on us.
The CDC has added to the list of COVID-19 symptoms: Fever, cough and shortness of breath have been known symptoms of COVID-19. The CDC has now added: • Chills• Repeated shaking with chills• Muscle pain• Headache• Sore throat• New loss of taste or smellhttps://t.co/5gWPOJAkiZ— NPR (@NPR) April 27, 2020
Key element of Orlando, Dallas, KC: All 3 have facilities with lots of high-quality training fields, a key to a potential neutral site start.It's all pretty exploratory still, though. Lots of options on the table. Taking players/staff away from families one of many hurdles. https://t.co/drCd2TSmdb— Sam Stejskal (@samstejskal) May 1, 2020
Is there a part of this exchange I'm not seeing? Seattle has a really nice facility, RSL does, LA does, etc
The two things I can see are they're central in the nation and their covid case count is lower than the ones you mentioned. LA county has 25K confirmed cases, King County has 6500, and Salt Lake County has 2,600. Jackson County, Dallas County, and Orange County have 309, 3200, 1300 cases respectively.