I've been tracking men's soccer RPI rankings since 2013. Throwing out the 2020-21 season, in which the NCAA understandably ignored the RPI rankings, the Selection Committees have hued pretty close to the rankings in choosing at-large teams. One team, on average, misses the NCAA Tournament despite having an RPI ranking above the cut line (with a corresponding team from below the cut line replacing them). The average cut line since 2013 (throwing out 2020) is 35.7/37.2. 2013) MISSED: UIC (30), UAB (36). MADE: Clemson (41), Northwestern (44). CUT LINE: 37/38. 2014) MISSED and MADE: none. CUT LINE: 32/33. 2015) MISSED: NC State (34). MADE: Connecticut (37). CUT LINE: 34/36. 2016) MISSED: Hofstra (36). MADE: Villanova (42). CUT LINE: 36/39. 2017) MISSED: Charlotte (32). MADE: NC State (45). CUT LINE: 37/38. 2018) MISSED: Creighton (31), Wright State (35). MADE: Portland (36), UNCW (41). CUT LINE: 35/36. 2019) MISSED: Central Arkansas (29). MADE: California (49). CUT LINE: 35/36. 2021) MISSED: Loyola Marymount (37). MADE: Bowling Green (49). CUT LINE: 37/39. 2022) MISSED and MADE: none. CUT LINE: 39/40. 2023) MISSED: VCU (34). MADE: James Madison (38). CUT LINE: 35/37. The cut line through games of 11/11/24 is 40/41. This cut line will elevate as conference tournament upsets slide high RPI teams over to the at-large bin. The cut line can be tracked here: Tournament Projection What makes a Selection Committee disregard teams above the cut line and elevate others into the field? They are looking at other criteria such as record in the last 8 games, Quad splits, record vs. the top 100, non-conference RPI, etc. I tried to quantify what the SC is looking at and see if I can identify schools that might be in more trouble than you think, and other schools that may surprisingly get picked. The quad splits are a new thing in men's soccer. Each game is categorized based on opponent, site and result. Quad 1 games are the best to have, and Quad 4 games are the worst. I summed up points earned in the top 3 Quads, weighting Q1 X3 and Q2 X2 and then subtracted out Q4 points not earned at a factor of 6X. Ohio State was the top team in this group at +80. Notre Dame, with an RPI of 47, does very well in this metric with a Quad ranking of 15 (+37). I used the same system for Last 8 and for Above 100/Below 150, giving me a total of 3 rankings based on results that the SC looks at. I threw in non-conference RPI as a 4th ranking. I gave each of these four metrics a weighting of 1 and added them to the overall RPI ranking weighted by 4. In other words, the overall RPI ranking is half of my totally made-up hybrid model, which is then adjusted by the other 4 metrics that I've chosen. I'm sure this is exactly how the Committee does it. I'm sure you're excited to see how it turned out. I've designated the highest-ranked team still alive for an auto bid. RANK RPI SCHOOL 1 1 Ohio State (BIG TEN) 2 2 Denver (SUMMIT) 3 4 Hofstra (COASTAL) 4 5 Penn (IVY) 5 7 Missouri State (MO VALLEY) 6 6 Virginia (ACC) 7 3 Pittsburgh 8 10 Georgetown (BIG EAST) 9 11 Dayton (A10) 10 14 Clemson 11 8 Duke 12 12 SMU 13 13 Marshall (SUN BELT) 14 16 Providence 15 20 Oregon State (WCC) 16 19 Cornell 17 22 San Diego 18 15 West Virginia 19 18 Indiana 20 25 Washington 21 23 UMass 22 27 Michigan 23 9 Stanford 23 24 Maryland 25 21 Wake Forest 25 36 UNCG 27 17 North Carolina 28 28 Vermont (AEC) 29 30 Western Michigan 30 33 UCLA 31 32 NC State 32 31 Akron 32 34 Charlotte (AAC) 32 39 High Point (BIG SOUTH) 35 35 UC Santa Barbara (BIG WEST) 36 26 California 37 37 Kansas City 38 38 George Mason 39 29 Fordham 40 45 Northwestern 41 43 Wisconsin 42 40 Drake 43 48 Monmouth 44 42 Princeton 45 44 New Hampshire 46 51 Creighton 47 41 Virginia Tech 48 46 San Diego State (WAC) 49 47 Notre Dame 50 53 UCF Pulling the projected auto bids out leaves us the at-large hopefuls. The SC will choose 26 teams to fill out the field. I've drawn the cut line. RANK RPI SCHOOL 7 3 Pittsburgh 10 14 Clemson 11 8 Duke 12 12 SMU 14 16 Providence 16 19 Cornell 17 22 San Diego 18 15 West Virginia 19 18 Indiana 20 25 Washington 21 23 UMass 22 27 Michigan 23 9 Stanford 23 24 Maryland 25 21 Wake Forest 25 36 UNCG 27 17 North Carolina 29 30 Western Michigan 30 33 UCLA 31 32 NC State 32 31 Akron 36 26 California 37 37 Kansas City 38 38 George Mason 39 29 Fordham 40 45 Northwestern 41 43 Wisconsin 42 40 Drake 43 48 Monmouth 44 42 Princeton 45 44 New Hampshire 46 51 Creighton 47 41 Virginia Tech 49 47 Notre Dame 50 53 UCF Northwestern appears to be the team that out-performs itsb RPI best in my totally made-up metric, nipping Big Ten rival Wisconsin. By RPI alone, Northwestern would be out. But they have internal RPI positives that give the Wildcats a decent chance of making the Tournament. Drake, currently the last team above the overall RPI cut line, drops out of the field when I do the deeper dive. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, they are still alive in the MVC semis and can improve their position. Other teams to watch are Fordham, which has an RPI of 29 but is just above Northwestern at 39 in this view, and California, which has improved its RPI to 26 with two road wins in the ACC Tournament but has a totally made-up metric ranking of 36.
@gauchodan Fantastic work, as always. Many conference tournaments are now at the semifinal stage. Is RPI predictable enough so that every team (on the bubble) knows exactly what they need to do to make the NCAA tournament? The weaker teams have to win their tournament to get in; the stronger teams are in no matter what. But the teams in between? Could Akron fall out with a semifinal loss (to Georgetown)? George Mason? Could New Hampshire win their semifinal, lose the final, and still advance? Princeton?
Akron's RPI will not suffer with a semifinal loss to Georgetown. Notice the projected SOS and OSS numbers on Akron's team page improve with the addition of G'town: that's 75% of the RPI formula. New Hampshire would be OK if Vermont is its championship opponent for the same reason. I'm a little more skeptical of Princeton's chance, although its RPI will not be damaged by playing Cornell and then possibly Penn. But I currently have Princeton on the wrong side of the cut line.
Updated through Wednesday's action. X indicates top-ranked school still eligible for auto bid. Rank is the metric rank among all eligible teams for the NCAA Tournament. I have Fordham getting snubbed with an RPI of 29 but a metric rank of 43 and Northwestern getting in with an RPI of 45 and a metric rank of 39. RANK RPI SCHOOL X 1 1 Ohio State X 2 2 Denver X 3 4 Hofstra X 4 6 Dayton X 5 5 Penn 1 6 3 Pittsburgh X 6 7 Virginia 2 8 10 Missouri State X 8 11 Georgetown X 10 12 Marshall 3 11 15 Clemson 4 12 8 Duke 5 13 13 SMU 6 14 19 Cornell 7 15 17 Providence X 16 20 Oregon State 8 17 14 West Virginia 9 18 18 Indiana 10 19 23 San Diego 11 20 25 Washington 12 21 27 Michigan 13 22 22 UMass X 23 26 Vermont 14 24 34 UNCG 15 25 9 Stanford 16 26 16 North Carolina 17 26 24 Maryland 18 28 21 Wake Forest 19 29 30 Western Michigan 20 30 32 NC State X 31 38 High Point 21 32 37 UCLA X 33 33 Charlotte 22 34 31 Akron X 35 39 UC Santa Barbara 23 36 35 Saint Louis 24 37 28 California 25 38 36 Kansas City 26 39 45 Northwestern 27 40 48 Monmouth 28 41 41 Princeton 29 42 46 Wisconsin 30 43 29 Fordham 31 44 40 George Mason 32 45 44 New Hampshire 33 46 53 Creighton 34 47 43 Drake 35 48 47 Notre Dame 36 49 42 Virginia Tech 37 50 55 UCF X 51 50 Bowling Green X 52 51 Seattle 38 53 57 Syracuse 39 54 56 San Diego State 40 55 54 Duquesne 41 56 52 Oral Roberts 42 57 60 South Carolina 43 58 63 Bryant 44 59 58 Evansville 45 60 49 Elon
Hey, this is amazing work. Thank you. I noticed on your website, tournament projection page, that Cal is missing. Is that an oversight?
Updated through games of 11/15/24 At-Large Rank -- Rank -- RPI -- school X 1 1 Ohio State (in Big Ten title game) X 2 2 Denver (in Summit title game) X 3 4 Hofstra (in Coastal title game) X 4 7 Dayton (in A10 title game) X 5 5 Penn (in Ivy title game) X 6 6 Georgetown (in Big East title game) 1 7 3 Pittsburgh X 8 13 Clemson (in ACC title game) X 9 12 Marshall (in Sun Belt title game) 2 10 9 Duke 3 10 10 Virginia 4 12 11 SMU 5 13 16 Providence (in Big East title game) 6 14 15 Missouri State X 15 20 Oregon State (top-ranked WCC team) 7 16 14 Wake Forest (in ACC title game) 8 17 21 San Diego 9 18 18 Indiana 10 19 17 West Virginia (in Sun Belt title game) 11 20 24 Washington 12 21 27 Michigan (in Big Ten title game) 13 22 23 Cornell X 23 26 Vermont (in AEC title game) 14 24 22 UMass 15 25 8 Stanford X 26 28 Charlotte (in AAC title game) 16 27 35 UNCG 17 28 25 Maryland 18 29 19 North Carolina 19 30 31 Western Michigan 20 31 32 Princeton (in Ivy title game) 21 32 33 NC State X 33 38 High Point (in Big South game) 22 34 37 UCLA 23 35 40 UC Santa Barbara 24 36 42 Monmouth 25 37 34 Akron 26 38 39 Kansas City (in Summit title game) 27 39 36 Saint Louis (in A10 title game) 28 40 47 Northwestern 29 41 46 Wisconsin 30 42 30 Fordham 31 43 41 George Mason 32 44 51 Creighton 33 45 43 New Hampshire 34 46 45 Drake 35 47 48 Notre Dame 36 48 44 Virginia Tech 37 49 55 UCF X 50 50 Bowling Green (in MVC title game) X 51 52 UC Davis (Big West auto bid) X 52 53 Seattle (in WAC title game) 38 53 54 Duquesne 39 54 58 Syracuse 40 55 57 San Diego State 41 56 56 Oral Roberts 42 57 61 South Carolina 43 58 64 Bryant (in AEC title game) 44 59 49 Elon 45 60 59 Boston College
I'm not sure how much I believe this latest update. Akron would be the first team out. Updated through 11/16/24 matches AT-LARGE RANK -- RANK -- RPI -- SCHOOL X -- 1 -- 1 -- Ohio State (in Big Ten title game) X -- 2 -- 4 -- Hofstra (Coastal AUTO BID) X -- 3 -- 7 -- Dayton (in Atlantic 10 title game) 1 -- 4 -- 3 -- Denver X -- 5 -- 5 -- Penn (in Ivy League title game) X -- 6 -- 6 -- Georgetown (in Big East title game) 2 -- 7 -- 2 -- Pittsburgh X -- 8 -- 14 -- Clemson (in ACC title game) 3 -- 9 -- 10 -- Missouri State X -- 10 -- 13 -- Marshall (in Sun Belt title game) 4 -- 11 -- 8 -- Duke 5 -- 12 -- 11 -- Virginia 6 -- 13 -- 16 -- Providence (in Big East title game) 7 -- 14 -- 15 -- SMU 8 -- 15 -- 12 -- Wake Forest (in ACC title game) X -- 16 -- 20 -- San Diego (West Coast AUTO BID) 9 -- 17 -- 17 -- West Virginia (in Sun Belt title game) 10 -- 18 -- 19 -- Indiana 11 -- 19 -- 26 -- Washington 12 -- 20 -- 28 -- Michigan (in Big Ten title game) X -- 21 -- 25 -- Vermont (in AEC title game) 13 -- 22 -- 21 -- UMass 14 -- 22 -- 23 -- Cornell 15 -- 24 -- 9 -- Stanford X -- 25 -- 27 -- Charlotte (in AAC title game) 16 -- 26 -- 24 -- Maryland 17 -- 27 -- 18 -- North Carolina 18 -- 28 -- 29 -- Western Michigan 19 -- 29 -- 30 -- Oregon State X -- 30 -- 22 -- Kansas City (Summit AUTO BID) 20 -- 31 -- 37 -- UNCG 21 -- 32 -- 33 -- Princeton (in Ivy League title game) 22 -- 33 -- 38 -- UC Santa Barbara 23 -- 34 -- 39 -- UCLA 24 -- 35 -- 36 -- NC State 25 -- 36 -- 40 -- High Point 26 -- 37 -- 44 -- Monmouth 27 -- 38 -- 34 -- Akron 28 -- 39 -- 35 -- Saint Louis (in A10 title game) 29 -- 40 -- 47 -- Northwestern 30 -- 41 -- 46 -- Wisconsin 31 -- 42 -- 41 -- George Mason 32 -- 43 -- 32 -- Fordham 33 -- 44 -- 42 -- New Hampshire 34 -- 45 -- 45 -- Drake 35 -- 46 -- 54 -- Creighton 36 -- 47 -- 43 -- Virginia Tech X -- 48 -- 49 -- Gardner-Webb (Big South AUTO BID) 37 -- 49 -- 50 -- Notre Dame 38 -- 50 -- 55 -- UCF X -- 51 -- 52 -- Seattle (WAC AUTO BID) X -- 52 -- 56 -- UC Davis (Big West AUTO BID) X -- 53 -- 48 -- Evansville (MVC AUTO BID)
That would be a travesty. I mean, I get it - they had a not-great non-con. But they have evolved into one of the best teams out there.
@gauchodan, have you done any deep dives into top 16 seeding for byes? EG, how often has a power conference regular season co-champ ranked around 20 been bumped up into a seed?
No, I haven't done a specific query on that scenario. I could probably tell you how many teams in the 20's received top 16 seeds...but it would take me a little bit of time. Duke was a 15 seed last year with an RPI of 20. They did not win the ACC, however (they were the 5 seed for the ACC tourney).
Since 2013 (not counting 2020-21), six teams with an RPI in the 20's have earned seeds and a 1st-round bye: 2023: Duke (20) 15 seed 2022: Indiana (20) 13 seed 2021: Penn State (21) 12 seed 2019: Penn State (20) 15 seed 2016: Virginia (20) 12 seed 2015: Indiana (21) 16 seed The 2021 Penn State team was the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament champion.