I have had a little experience with sports unions and drug tests in the US. The most important thing is that the penalties a very well defined. Usually, it takes a failed test or two to be in the "program", but once you are in the program and fail the test, the league has almost no discretion on the penalty. Although the player has the right to dispute the penalty in arbitration, such cases have rarely been successful, no matter how sympathetic the circumstances (second hand smoke, took an over-the-counter containing a banned substance, etc.) The other thing in the US is that a missed test, even for a short period of time, is deemed to be a failure of the test. Even if you were up all night with a sick kid and overslept (actual story), you have to be on time for the test. Now, in the US, this is for people who are already in the program, so there is a presumption of guilt. I think that Rio will get a decent sized ban. The eyes of world soccer are on the result. Like it or not, he's a very high profile player for the highest profile club in the league. I'd be shocked if he got anything less than a 10 match ban.
The Rio case verdict will be given as early as Friday. I don't know why FIFA wants to intervene in the case, they are jealous of european leagues and want to show that FIFA still have the power. I recognise that I am a ManUtd fan and obviously i will support them but i believe that a ban of 3 months maximum is enough, or better if he only get fined. The FA has a hard case with so many people pro and against Ferdinand.
The problem is that this whole case has so many political influences. Even the IOC are involved. They are insisting that all sports that take part in the Olympic Games should take on their drug abuse regulations that automatically bans a sportsman for 2 years. I suspect that Blatter's comments are meant as much for the IOC's consumption as the soccer world. British Law would take a very dim view of what is taking place. If Blatter were a Brit and Rio's case subject to normal legal preceedings then Blatter would be guilty of contempt of court and possibly gaoled. THe case could well be dismissed because Blatter and the media have rendered it incapable of being a fair trial. If the tribunal ignores precedent then there would be equally severe consequences. But Blatter isn't a Brit and this is under the FA's regulations. As the Bosman ruling shows, soccer's regulations are often a long way from conforming to the principles emboded in British and European law. That's why the FA are fearful of Utd taking this beyond their own (FA's) regulations. Here's an interesting view: http://football.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,9753,1109063,00.html There are other articles worth reading on the same site.