I’m guessing at least a year to develop, test and produce a bunch. And that’s pretty fast. I think Covid 19 appeared at the end of 2019 but I don’t know exactly.
We don’t have a drug we know of. Drugs that treat related viruses are being tried but they may or may not help. Each freaking virus type is somewhat different, which makes all of this harder. Having a robust NIH and a robust CDC is in everyone’s interest.
I have heard that there are some positive results coming in from China regarding the use of blood plasma from recovered patients. Not sure on the details and could just be propaganda.
But why does that matter? You don't know or care about anyone with underlying health conditions? I don't understand this mentality. I don't know about the rest of the world, but many US hospitals have limited ICU beds and limited ventilators. So every bed or ventilator taken by a coronavirus patient means there is one less bed or ventilator or nurse or doctor for some other patient. I don't see how folks don't understand the math here... Does no one look at news from Italy, Iran or China?
The US has the most ICU beds per capita, however... This compares the number of acute care beds with their pre-existing level of utilization. Probably part of the reason Germany and South Korea have so few deaths compared to their number of cases, while Italy is crumbling under the strain (obviously there are other factors like Italy's aged population).
It's been 17 years and we still don't have a vaccine against the first SARS. I'm counting on the sun to get rid of it, at least for a while --giving us time to do something. And I'm counting on the virus mutating and becoming more benign. It's never in a virus's best interest to kill its host.
There was no need for a vaccine for SARS since it fizzled out. There were candidates developed, but they were shelved.
Lots of fear and/or fear mongering in here. Upthread it is even implied this thing is worse than Ebola FFS! F'in EBOLA, with a 90% death rate... SMH at Suyuntuy and his propensity for worst case scenarios. The COVID 19 death rate is thought to be 3%-5% of known infected patients. It is thought the true risk is lower, since many of the asymptomatic will not be identified. It breaks down to 80% mild or asymptomatic, 15% have severe symptoms and 5% are critical requiring oxygen. I may end up being wrong, but this appears to be a case of an abundance of caution. We will know shortly, the incubation period is a bit longer than influenza. Are you the people that are buying all the toilet paper? NOTE: I am not a medical professional, nor do I play one on Big Soccer, I am simply a guy who, "knows how to use that Google machine on the internets!" Link for my number and background for my opinion came from: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
How much stock are we putting in the theory that covid-19 has already been through the US? Much anecdotal evidence that it came through in January. I know a lot people in SF that had coronavirus symptoms that tested negative for flu. Several ultimately got pneumonia, including my wife. Same thing with business associates around the country. Of course publicizing this might cause people to let their guard down and reduce social distancing, but is potentially a reason for optimism.
I live in Spain and I'm pretty sure I had it in late January but didn't know what it was....never got serious enough in my eyes to seek medical care.
I went to Florida for Christmas and got very sick. Flu and it was in the throat/lungs. Came back to NY, wife got sick. Talked to people, many were sick. We're talking entire families. Went to urgent care, they said I did not have the flu. Went to a second urgent care, they said I had winter allergies....but also said there's really nasty stuff going around. Entire North East was hit during the holiday travel season. Others who met me in Florida and flew back home also got quite sick when traveling. I would say it's quite likely some form of the virus was circulating by late Dec.
But why does that matter? We do not have a great oversupply of ventilators however, and they are very important in coronavirus. (Also, look at France's numbers... very close. Keep an eye on them.) What a lot of folks don't think through. It's not "just" coronavirus. It's "will you get a vent if your baby gets pneumonia if they are all taken by corona victims?" and "what happens when the ER docs at rural hospitals get Covid? Some don't have a big bullpen... But I don't have to go on about this, we're about to see it in real time.
People quote death % like it's a number, not a dead person. That is a big part of the problem. 6500 deaths worldwide (that we know of) is not huge in the scheme of things, of course, but if it's your mom, your brother, your care giver, your doctor. The absurd fatalism is so confusing. Has no one looked at the difference in infection and mortality rates between Taiwan, Japan, Italy and Iran and thought "you know, given the option, I'd rather less people in my country/community/society die?" Taiwan and Japan were aggressive about social distancing, trace, test and treat... others, not so much. But sure, let's all talk about toilet paper, cause it's only %.
Would I be far off in saying that a countries life expectancy closely mirrors this graph? Israel and Canada are surprisingly low...any ideas why?
Agree. France is a good comparison... Chart 6 shows we're just a few days behind them and trending just like them.
This is the Canadian governments analysis of their 374 confirmed cases as of as of March 16, 2020, 9 am EST: 51% of cases are female 31% of cases are 60 years old and over 13% of cases have been hospitalized 1 person has died of COVID-19 74% of cases are travellers and 6% are close contacts of travellers
I'm old enough to remember when older people in the UK used to cut newspaper* into squares and put them on a nail next to the toilet. I've also been to second and third-world countries where the sewage system can't handle much and you place any used paper in a bucket next to the toilet. *the magazine sections aren't as absorbent.
I heard that they are testing a vaccine in Canada today. I also heard that Trump tried to buy the company but they declined. Here is an article I found about the possible discovery: https://globalnews.ca/news/6671901/coronavirus-canadian-company-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/
My guess in terms of Canada: those are "unoccupied" bed rate. In my (extensive) experience with Canada health, they try very hard to walk a line between cost and care. They try to keep excess capacity out of the supply chain. In some more rural/remote places you might get a CAT or MRI at 10pm or on Sunday as they try to use their resources as efficiently as possibly. They don't want to/can't afford to buy extra machines so they use what they have as much as they can. My guess (just a guess) is Canada runs their resources with as little extra runway as they can.
I presume that once the test kits are widely available, someone will go to the blood banks and test samples collected in the last few months.