Good catch - I need to fix that. What I do is factor the numbers on paper first, then transpose them into my Excel program - usually by bringing up the last week's rankings and then plugging in the numbers. Apparently I didn't update the Games row. My bad. I'll see about getting that fixed soon.
That they are on the upswing....which would be pretty true if they actually did beat FCD in Dallas. Guy, its just a factor, one of several being used to judge teams. By itself you might say it means nothing but combined with other info it could be useful as you pointed out. It shows that all those teams in the middle are pretty indistinguishable...which I would agree with. Every year there is a lump of teams in the middle that are hard to separate...its no mystery that they all have similar pace calcs.
see, to me, whenever i played around with this number (he calls pace)....it couldn't really stand alone without knowing gms played (incl showing home and away numbers).....plus as the season moves along and everyone's home and away games have leveled out a bit, the numbers get closer and closer to the actual difference between every team's points at that moment. again, to me, b/c i couldn't find a way to make it really, truely, 'stand alone'....it didn't really show a lot. when l.a. had to play their first 8 games on the road that one year.....it really came in useful b/c it easily showed that all those draws and loses they had over that stretch really didn't have them sitting at the bottom like the actual pt total showed. maybe i'll put some more thought into it....and look at his approach again.
And I think this is why its useful right now in this discussion. By the all-star break FCD will have only played 6 games at home and most other teams will be around 8-10. That's a big difference. I agree, that as the season goes on the Pace becomes a lot less important....pretty much insignificant, actually.
Well, look at Metro for example. They found a way to screw up their first set of home games, but by winning on the road, balanced that out. Remember, though, the Pace is actually aimed at a road team tying on the road, thereby denying the home team the full three points. If Chivas had tied Dallas, while it wouldn't have been a huge move in the standings for them, that was two points that they didn't have to catch Dallas for (if the teams were anywhere near even in points....) Well, a team that has a stronger pace is usually going to be stronger team. I don't know if FCD-San Jose is a good example because the teams are so far apart in terms of points. A better example might be if Chicago were playing LA right now. They have similar point totals, but give me Chicago at home any day of the week, and I wouldn't bet against them on the road in that series. Chicago has shown a better ability to win the games they should and come up with other results as necessary than LA. In fact, LA is actually the better example of why The Pace is important. Not so much that they had such a high Pace (it was close to even for most of the season until they hit the road for this last stretch), but because you can't gain points at home, it showed that even with all the wins, they weren't *necessarily* as good as their record indicated because they hadn't played on the road. Well, they go on the road and prove me right. But for DC's latest run against Chicago and NE, I wouldn't hesitate to pick Chicago. But the form Untied showed in those two games, while not consistent, was strong enough to make me hesitate a bit. Hence DC is right behind Chicago. But. If it were Chicago and any other team in that grouping (KC, SJ, LA, M), I'd pick Chicago.
exactly.....i look at that pace (and the whole table) and there's no way for me to know that they will only have played 6 homes by the end of july. wish there was a way to make this type of system more clear and useful.....i liked it when i toyed with it. related....i don't know if this year is any diff....but, result breakdowns look something like this: home team wins: 53% away team wins: 23% draw: 24% odd thing is that in a home team win, a goal differential of 2+ only happens 43% of the time (or less than 1/2 of the time when the home side wins). however, when an away team wins...they win by 2+ goals 80% of the time. not sure exactly what this 'means', but i'm sure it speaks to the emotional approach and fluid nature of this game.
It says to me that home teams are more likely to go for the gusto and try to attack and win the game if they fall behind, thus leaving their defense vulnerable to the counter-attack. Visiting teams play alot more conservatively in tight games so home teams that are winning by one or two don't feel the need to extend thier lead. I don't know if what I've just written is accurate, but it 'could' explain your findings. Great research...thanks for sharing.
oh, and i forgot another reason why it was hard to 'sell' this 'pace' type of number. b/c you're penalized so much for losing at home.....numbers are almost always (-). you look at the top lgs in the world and only the top 2-4 are in (+) territory. i tried other configurations to make it look more (+) and just never found a way that gave one an immediate sense of what the number was about.
Don't focus so much on who is positive and who isn't.....its more important that you have a better pace number than someone else. Positive and negative don't mean anything, its all relative to the other teams. Also, in other leagues around the world you are more likely to see 3-4 dominant teams and the rest struggle to stay with them.....that's just the way it is. Any stastical formula would show you the same result in that case.
Actually, the Pace DOESN'T even out as the season goes along. It stratifies. Most years I've had at least a 10 point gap between top and bottom. Interestingly, it almost always flows with the standings. This is why I think it is a more accurate estimator of a team's actual play than PPG. Or is at least AS important. Sure, most of the time you're only going to have a one or two game difference between h and a games - just like games in hand - but when you put the two together, you have a better read on the field than just points or just ppg. And when I put that together with my read of the season, I usually feel pretty good about where things come out. If nothing else, 3rd Degree has kept me on the payroll. To pull the curtain back a bit more, what I generally do each week is update the numbers, then see what makes obvious sense. Moving NE above Dallas made obvious sense last week. The week before, moving DC to four was obvious. The bottom four have been pretty easy to put in place this season as well. But what to do with the rest? That is when I'll look to PPG and The Pace, along with the actual games. Where were the teams before? What did they do with the opportunities they had? Obviously KC beating a tired Chivas team isn't as impressive as, say San Jose's win over LA (although the way LA is turtling on the road, maybe not.) If a team does what it is supposed to do in terms of the pace, I try like hell not to drop them, but the week that DC had against Chicago and NE, I had to move KC and Metro down even though they took care of business. (Probably WAY more information than anyone wanted to know, but oh well.)
...actually, in the case of this season....i think it just means you SUCK! i looked at the numbers again and of the 16 times the away teams have done it, it's happened to chivas and clb 9 of the times with rsl and col piling on for another 4.....so, it's happened to the 4 teams with the lowest overall pt totals in 80%+ of the cases.
What TG said - it is a relative number, not whether something is positive or negative. A team that has an even Pace is going to be near the top of the table. A team that is in the 4-8 range (sometimes as low as 12, depending on the year) is going to be in the playoffs. A team below 12 is probably not real good. I think your percentages of home team winning, away team winning and drawing speaks volumes. Great stuff. And backs up my view that winning at home IS important because frankly, if the home team wins half the time and the other half the time is split basically evenly between a tie and a road win, thay tells me that if you're not winning at home, you're not keeping Pace.
All the more so. The teams in contention are winning at home and drawing on the road, and the teams that can't win at home are getting pounded.
sorta, not really, the gen stats would suggest that the teams in contention aren't drawing away all that much. however, back to the flip side of the away team 2+ goal win........it's more spread out than the 4 bottom feeders listed b/f. every other mls team (8) EXCEPT those 4 listed previously have won away by 2+ at least once. of course, dal and ne lead the way with 5 and 3 of the 16 respectively.
Going back to Page 1 for a second here: Sadly, there's also a chance that a potential Revs-FCD matchup at MLS Cup on November 13th would be similarly tainted. The 4th-place CONCACAF team will be involved in the home-and-home leg with Asian 5 on the 13th. If the MLS Playoffs and CONCACAF Hex were to end today, all signs point towards Revs-Dallas in the Cup and Guatemala (i.e. Ruiz) 4th. As Guatemala has never qualified for a World Cup, I can see that being a no-brainer. In all honesty, I've begun to silently rout for Guatemala to oust Costa Rica and finish 3rd (this Ruiz issue being just one of the reasons why). But, I would say there's a fair chance the above comes to fruition and we never get to see the best 11s go head to head.
Kevin, you're a geek and a plagiarist. Isn't your 'pace' simply a different term for the old 'English Average' we used to see in European (specifically Italian) standings back in the 90s? I love you (does that make up for the geek and plagiarist comments? Dan
sorry this is cracking me up!!! I have to say it. Frankly is Chivas USA had not struggled and lost 12 of 16 games this season they'd be in first place on my chart. HA... I will say this... The pace factor is not something you should be using in your rankings... I look at it this way. What if FC Dallas played all 16 road games to begin the season and then they finished with 16 home games. I look at it like this. If Dallas goes 7-5-4 in those games... they end up with a Pace of +9 and then you say... they go 9-4-3 at home to end the season. Their pace now becomes over those 16 games.... -18 which would make their pace total..... -9. Hmm... I think it is a measuring stick.. but honestly... its like using a meter stick and saying that every meter is actually 3 feet. Its not!!! Revs rule... dallas drools... NUF Said. Hopefully the revs will be able to use some of their normal starters when they play FCD on the 16th due to the USA playing in Gillette!
Plagiarist? I've never heard of your 'English Average' thingy - maybe it just proves that it is a good idea. (I didn't follow European football in the 90s....) As for the geek comment, I'm going to have to plead the 5th.
I second this. But according to the other FCD fans, he's now our geek. Can we return him to Dallas for a calculator and a Mexican cerveza to be named later?
That was about as constructive as a black hole. Yeah, bud, those rankings are about talking smack. Right. Why don't you head over to the Rivalries board, huh?
BTW, your friend NSA decided I've been a bad boy, called me a troll and wants me to go away. Isn't that sweet? Is that in accordance with your "be nice" rules around here?