Hey Drum'r Boy, I'm just saying that I don't like the Pace as an indicator period. If you adjust it for a specific case, as in your post, and it shows the Revs are stronger, great. If you don't and it shows FCD is stronger, great. I don't find it useful either way and I said so. One person's opinion. Of course you put thought into your rankings. You've decided to spend your own time creating something you hope others will find useful. Cheers for that. Seriously. No sarcasm. But forgive me if I'm not smitten.
You are not getting off that easy NE lover boy ! Where is your bias and undenying love for FCD. Objectivity is way overrated.
I agree. This is one of the intangible factors that are considered. Frankly, if NE hadn't struggled with the stretch of three ties, there really wouldn't be an argument in my mind.
Your point about the DC and Fire boards is well taken. We're far nicer to each other and visitors here. I actually don't remember the last time I saw someone called an idiot, which I hope explains our quick reaction to the post. I can see how frequent visits to their boards can put someone on the defensive, as well.
Hm. Esp. about the underlined section. That gives me some perspective. And mosler's response clarifies some things, too. So, in that light, let me say, "Yep, I stepped over the line. I'm sorry for being so negative and direct."
[John Cleese accent]Ya' vicious, heartless, b@$tard. Look a' wha' ya' got me into![/John Cleese accent]
... well there was that one time ... Please ... like we want him. We already have our masked marauder thank you. And our drummer could kick his ass!
It had its moments. I learned a lot about their teams - more than I knew by just watching the games on the tele. Sorry if that experience colored this discussion.
I've spoken to Kevin a lot (and it's not always trash talking!) and consider him a friend. He's a good guy and when he put the Revs currently as the best team in the league ... for a change he was right.
Can you clarify the actual nuts and bolts of "pace" please? are you simply attributing that a team should get 3pts at home and 1 on the road? if there's a home loss....basically they get a -3 or a tie, -2? maybe your 'projecting' as well for their remaining schedule? i've used this for 3-4 years now as a method for looking at the revs or teams that have unusually unbalanced h and a schedules (like l.a. while they were waiting for the hdc to be completed). as a straight stat, it seems to have little use if it's not being 'projected' and none of the teams have a very unbalanced schedule.
I'm not usually a big fan of pace, but this year, with Dallas' unbalanced schedule, it should be considered. If you are arguing that its not any easier to win at home, then I guess that's cool. But I think you wouldn't have many who agree with you. Bottom line, our back half is chock full of home games, whereas everyone else's schedule is balanced. That means two things....1) we've been deprived of early games where we should have had an advantage and 2) we should have an easier road to finish the season. Because of the unbalanced schedules the Pace is an important part of the analysis. Now....please return to the Kevin bashing....I'm highly enjoying this.
Well, you did more than just say so, but no worries. And yeah, I agree that The Pace isn't the Cat's Meow, although it is the most useful of the stats, imo. Why? Because points is pretty self explanitory of success - anyone can read those - but how you get there is also important. I also disagree alot with your statement that any team can beat another team on any given day. Similarly leveled teams? Probably. But most results these days are not surprising me other than Dallas' complete inability to struggle on the road. (Ask my Dallas buddies - if they will still claim me - as even going into Saturday I was saying I was worried about the result.) There are three tiers in the league right now, and unless you're going between tiers, the home team usually has the edge. As an example - The Pace predicted LA's fall (although not even I felt it would be as bad as it has) and Chicago's success. Thanks for responding the way you did. Sorry if I went off half-cocked.
oh, and not to be too nit-picky here.....but, your 'games' column seems to be a bit behind the times.
As for the drumming thing - is that why you didn't bring your drum to Salt Lake? Because you knew you'd be embarrased? Tell you what - you bring your drummer to the MLS Cup and we'll decide the REAL issue throughout the league!
On a serious note, I also can't see how/why strength of schedule isn't included in this. I had posted last week the numbers ... and just found them again. This is the opponents combined records through June 23rd matches. Take it for what it's worth ... combined opponents records for each of the two teams. Dallas ... their opponents are a combined (W-L-T) 58-95-45 (opponents have taken 36.87% of available points). Revs ... their opponents are a combined (W-L-T) 59-71-46 (opponents have taken 42.23% of available points). So just a little bit more proof of which of the two teams has had an easier schedule. Thta is a huge discrepancy in strength of schedule. And as has been mentioned in other areas ... FCD is 5-0-0 against the two expansion teams, the Revs have won their only game against those two teams. I give credit to winning the games that are on your schedule, but I guess I feel SOS should really count.
Not me, my friend. I'll admit I'm not good. But we have a secret weapon here in Foxboro, and he can definitely play.
Yes. The idea is that there are benefits to tying on the road, even if you don't win, and that if you protect the home field and can get ties on the road, you will be in very good shape. Notice how only two teams are anywhere near even? It usually is paired with the PPG to level out statistical anomalies that would otherwise even out over the course of a season to give a better read on the current play of teams rather than just the standings. The Pace levels out the h and a part, and the PPG levels out the games in hand. This year, it has helped show Metro's weakness at home early, LA's strength at home but potential weakness at home (showing that while their record was good, a lot of it was at home), Dallas road strength (honestly, do you see us losing at home but to top-end teams?), etc. And yes, most of the time, teams that lose at home early in the season don't recover. Teams that lose on the road usually have a better chance of recovering. (BTW, I'll check on the Games part. Thanks for pointing that out.)
Time. It takes enough time as is to factor in what is already in there. What it would take to do those numbers for the whole league - well, I know it doesn't seem like it, but I do have a regular job. That has to be done by feel (which, as you will note, is taken into consideration both on a weekly basis and overall.) Example - this week, the Rev moved back in front for two reasons. One, the Pace improvement took them ahead of Dallas when you factored out the expansion games. Two, NE played better teams than Dallas and got more solid results. This week, you play LA and we play San Jose. You're on the road against a team that is supposed to be strong at home - a win keeps you in first. A tie might also keep you in first if Dallas doesn't win well against San Jose.
Then where was he on June 4? Will he be in Columbus? The US needs all the good drummers we can get! (There is nothing I love more than watching fans from Hispanic countries look at our drummers playing the samba and the mournful, "why can't we do that" look on their face! It is also really enjoyable to share that passion with them in support of FC Dallas!) I guess I'll just have to keep working on my chops.
Unfortunately, our Kevin (who's much cooler ) doesn't travel often. I'll work on convincing him to go to MLS Cup.
One of my gripes with the Pace stems from it's formula dictating that for each game, the Pace number for at least one team must change. Chivas plays at FCD and loses. Chivas was never going to win this game, yet they lose one Pace point. And if they did win, a bump of plus two means what exactly? As has been mentioned previously, the Pace does help to show that FCD should have an easier time finishing out the schedule because they're playing at home. Ok, good to know, but so what? Does this help predict the winner of the FCD v. San Jose on Saturday? And what are we to make of the 6 teams in the middle tier, each with a Pace of -4 to -8? What role does the Pace play in differentiating between these teams on any given day? Does it provide insight that would lead somebody to pick a road team over a home team, say for the upcoming Chicago v. DC game?