(Originally posted at my blog, Climbing the Ladder.) Here is the remaining strength of schedule for each team, ranked by the average points per game of their opponents. The number of home/away games remaining for each team is listed in the other column. Remaining SOS - Opponents' Overall PPG Code: PPG H-A 1 HOU 1.214 5-5 2 LA 1.291 6-4 3 SJ 1.293 6-6 4 TOR 1.303 5-6 5 SEA 1.324 4-5 6 CHV 1.326 6-5 7 PHI 1.327 6-5 8 KC 1.346 5-6 9 NE 1.347 5-7 10 CHI 1.349 7-7 11 CLB 1.353 5-5 12 DC 1.386 5-5 13 COL 1.424 6-5 14 RSL 1.446 4-5 15 DAL 1.475 6-5 16 NY 1.500 5-5 With two more home games than away and the second easiest schedule, the Galaxy are in great shape. They really don't need the help, but with this kind of finish they can make a run at the record books. They probably should be even bigger favorites for the Supporters Shield than they already are. The Red Bulls, on the other hand, have the toughest schedule. The last couple games could give them momentum going into the playoffs, but the next six are all against contenders with four on the road. Despite this, me and everyone else still expects them to qualify given their added talent. The Dynamo have by far the easiest schedule, but it appears to be too little, too late. They need 6-7 wins in their last ten games, and that's a bit much to expect. I do think they should finish strong, though. The Revs have been hot a few weeks now, but they have two more away matches and it's hard to see them getting the large haul of points necessary. Now, whenever I post something like this, a lot of people always want to see a more detailed analysis where you use the home and away PPG rather than just overall. So I've also done that, here: Remaining SOS - Opponents' Home/Away PPG Code: PPG 1 LA 1.173 2 HOU 1.183 3 TOR 1.250 4 CHV 1.254 5 DC 1.265 6 CHI 1.308 7 NE 1.317 8 PHI 1.332 9 KC 1.343 10 SEA 1.352 11 COL 1.352 12 CLB 1.371 13 SJ 1.405 14 DAL 1.423 15 NY 1.511 16 RSL 1.600 Four teams moved up/down by more than two places. DC United & Chicago move up by 7 and 4 places respectively, while Seattle moves down 5 spots and San Jose goes all the way from 3rd to 13th, 10 spots. However, in terms of the actual average PPG, Chicago and Seattle had little movement. RSL's PPG moved up the most, followed by SJ. DC's moved down the most, followed by LA.
Boy, that gives a different spin on the Shield chase. Huge discrepancy there between LA's and RSL's remaining schedules.
Of course, one reason LA's schedule strength comes out this weak in this kind of formula is that they never have to play themselves.
The Rapids schedule is interesting (but not in a good way). In the next 10 games they'll play on the road against 5 of the current 6 best teams and they'll play at home against 5 of the current 6 worst teams. After that they have 1 game left, a home game against their rivals FSL. With that schedule I think the chances of them having clinched a playoff spot going into that game to be about 0. So once again, for the 4th year in a row, the Rapids will probably have to beat FSL in the final game to make the playoffs, assuming they haven't been already eliminated.
Six of the Galaxy's last Seven games are at the Home Depot Center. Galaxy could be firing on all cylinders heading into the postseason.
From looking at that, Chicago is going to have a good a chance as any to make a run to the playoffs. They have, like, 2-4 games in hand on a number of teams and their strength of schedule is pretty low (at least in the 2nd chart) compared to some others. Now their new DPs just need to leave a mark and lead them into the post-season.
================ I think we only have 2 trips out of California= Chicago and Phili... One of our road trips this week is SJ, so don't have to leave the state on that one = Add in the fact we are out of the USOC and CCL...... -In some weird way I get this feeing AEG doesn't really care we are out of these 2 tournys.. they are still just hung up on the MLS CUP... I think the Supporters Shield is more important and it will get you home field on your 2 first rounds of the playoffs...
Good stuff. The Crew fare better than I thought. Though with 5 road games, and DC coming off the schedule after this week, our numbers will likely go up.