A few weeks ago, we discussed the relegation battle. We're now at a point where everyone has 9 games remaining. The standings in the bottom part of the table are this... Aston Villa .. 35 .. -2 Leeds ........ 34 .. -4 Birmingham . 32 .. -14 Bolton ....... 26 .. -16 West Ham .. 26 .. -21 West Brom . 21 .. -23 Sunderland . 19 .. -27 If we start at the bottom... Sunderland With only 19 points and 9 games remaining, even with the managerial change, I doubt if anyone would bet seriously that they'll get more than 12 points from their last 9 games. Even if they got 15 points to give them 34, that's not likely to be enough to prevent relegation. West Brom West Brom and Aston Villa have the toughest remaining schedule. West Brom is going down. They'll garner no more than 30 points. West Ham West Ham has a much easier remaining schedule than Bolton or West Brom do. It is conceivable that they'll get 10 to 12 points out of their last 9 giving them at least 36. Bolton Bolton also has a tough schedule remaining. 6 to 9 points is it for them finishing on 32 to 35. Given that the bottom 3 will likely wind up with at most 35 points, the rest only need a few points to survive the top division. Despite having the toughest remaining schedule, AV only needs 1 point to stay up. They'll get that. Leeds only needs 2 points and Birmingham only needs 4 points to avoid the drop. They'll also get them. Sunderland, Bolton and West Brom go down. Looking ahead at who may replace them in the Premier League... The standings are this... Portsmouth ..... 35 .. 73 .. 39 Leicester ........ 36 .. 71 .. 26 Reading .......... 35 .. 61 .. 12 Nottm Forest ... 35 .. 59 .. 26 Sheff Utd ........ 33 .. 58 .. 15 Wolverhampton 35 .. 56 .. 24 Ipswich sits at 50, Norwich at 49. Rotherham, Gillingham, Burley all at 48 Preston, Coventry, Millwall, Watford all at 47 With 10 or 11 games remaining for most of the teams, it is looking like Portsmouth and Leicester have all but locked up the automatic promotion spots. The next four are all sitting pretty good for the playoff spots. One or two of the remaining teams could sneak in, but they definitely have hills to climb. Particularly since Sheffield Utd has 2 games in hand on nearly everyone else. So in a playoff between Reading, Nottingham, Sheffield Utd and Wolves, you'd have to tip Sheffield and Wolves. Wolves has the experience of the playoff from last year and Sheffield has the experience of a strong run in the FA Cup going for it. I'd look to see Sheffield, Leicester and Portsmouth in the EPL next year.
Even though Bolton's schedule doesn't look easy & West Hame has a lot of talent, I'll take Bolton over WestHam to beat the drop. I think West Ham's recent success will be short lived. Their defense is going to sell them short. Leicester and Portsmouth do look to have the top 2 locked up. Even with 11 games left it would take a BIG, BIG tumble in form for either of those to loose 2nd place to a club like Reading or NOttingham. I don't think Wolves will make the playoffs. They'll stumble and Ipswitch will sneak in. They've had great form.
Gills and Ipswich are now sitting on 51 points after their matches today. I don't give my boys much hope of even making the playoffs unless BFJ gets them playing.
While I think the top 6 in Div 1 all look llike probable playoff/automatic promotion candidates, it's much too early to give it away to Portsmouth and Leicester. It's probably they'll be the automatic promotion teams, but don't forget last year, where Wolves were far ahead of the field and just wilted down the stretch. WBA pipped them on the final day of the season. Wolves wilted so much, they didn't even win their first round playoff match. As far as who will win the playoff, that'll be the hot team at season's end. Who'll that be? Anyone's guess at this point. There isn't much separating the teams. There rarely is. The playoffs are a crap shoot. As a Birmingham City fan, I've watched way too many Div 1 playoffs.
I've followed Reading somewhat because they have an American in goal. They went on a tremendous hot streak when they had both Hahnemann and Upson in the lineup. And a very long shutout streak. Then Upson returned to Arsenal, and they began to play badly. They looked like they'd fall to midtable. Then they added another central defender (name escapes me) and snapped back to form. If that player can stay through the playoffs, you have to give them a chance. They've probably had the best record if you discount the games before they got their defense set, and between when Upson left and the new guy came in.
I agree that WBA, Sunderland and Bolton are gone (which is a shame since Bolton seems to have ManU's number). On the up, it's gonna be Portsmouth, Leicester and Forest.
down: sunderland, west brom, bolton up: (do I have to? .... Y'sure? )<sigh> portsmouth, leicester, ... ...<gulp>... blades. There. I said it.
Down: Sunderland, The Mighty Baggies and West Ham (they're defence is woeful, the worst I've seen at The Shrine since we hammered Pompey 5-0 around a year ago, unfortunately we put in the worst display of finishing I've seen for three or four years). I can't see either Pompey or Leicester 'doing a wolves' so they're up. The team who has the best end of the season will win the play offs. I'm gonna go for Forest. (Praying it's not wolves)
Great just what we need. The return of Leicester. We just got rid of 'em. Why can't they just die already? Pompey is a near certainty and the playoffs as always are anyone's guess. It's not usually the best team who wins the final promotion spot.