I'm thinking there are multiple reasons, including some you've mentioned. But his drop-off in goals has indeed been huge, and his starting point was already far from elite. If I've got this right he scored 16 goals IAC last season and so far this season he's got 5. Five?! And he went from 145 mins per goal last season, up to 250 now. If I want to be more optimistic about Laca for the next 3-4 months, I'm thinking: (a) he stays healthy (b) he continues to show a professional attitude with a clear sense of leadership (especially evident since Auba's banishment) (c) he and/or his boss make a point of shifting his emphasis a little bit... back from provider to goal scorer (now that Auba is 100% gone) (d) he rediscovers his confidence and the joy in sticking a ball in the net, earning a result for the team And if that doesn't produce benefits in February then I'd give Martinelli some time at CF. Eddie's another logical option on paper, but he's been so inconsistent/unreliable as a goal scorer, I'd rather give Nelli a run of games there first.
Lacazette's numbers have been odd. On one hand, his xG numbers are only slightly lower than last season (drop off from .35/90 to .27/90), so this could be explained by variance in finishing - in his time at Arsenal is finishing has been ever so slightly above xG, and that's over four seasons. But he's not shooting at all. Went from > 2 shots/90 to < 1.5/90, and part of that is offset by getting slightly higher shots, but that's a big drop in shot volume. He hasn't lost a step or dropped off physically, so this seems to be tactical more than anything else.
It's tricky to make January signings and hope they hit the ground running. Better to wait until the Summer (while starting to work on those transfers as soon as the January window shuts).
Oh, they've definitely gotten their finances in better shape. Which you'd expect with Goldman Sachs involved. The issue is most definitely the restrictions. I think I said somewhere else there are probably some gentlemen's agreements involved: we can't do much now, but next year we'll be in better shape to do something more, that kind of thing. Still a big risk for Auba, but as @daedalus said, kudos to him for wanting to play. I'm just sorry he didn't want to play out his contract with us. He really could have helped us snag that fourth spot. We may still do it, but it's going to be a lot tougher without him.
Glad to be here, @yossarian! I'm actually a new member. Really loving this. I love the game in all its aspects, so it's great to have a place to talk about it. Thanks to Big Soccer for being there.
Right. For the rest of the campaign, we go with what we have. Then hopefully this summer we find a good young striker. And maybe sign Bukayo Saka to an extension running until the end of time with a transfer fee of a gajillion euros, and then get back to threatening the top of the table.
huh. weird. i don't know why i always thought he was noted as a speed guy as a younger player. for the money, it's hard to argue that assessment.
if lowe is to be believed, "With Barcelona’s salary limit set at €97m and their actual salary mass over €400m, allowing the club to only invest one euro for every four saved". they should, in theory, have a decently bigger chunk in summer when dembele's contract expires.
andrew mangan talks a good bit about him picking up the ball in midfield and occasionally where one might expect a wingback to. i wonder if that is hurting his conversion of the shots he does get as well. like, fewer chances so he's rushing and feeling more pressured on them so he's flubbing them more.
quality shot volume is largely about being able to get into quality shooting locations - think RvP - it was his superpower in his first Man Utd season (alongside his amazing technique) So if Laca-loser doesn't even get into those locations his volume will decline unless he resorts to spamming low quality shots. If could also be that he is in those locations but the ball never arrives. But seems likely he is too far from goal. Athletic also had some discussion that at his age, his physical outputs are not so good in the second half.
that's fair. it felt like there's been a few (very few) chances that fell his way recently and i wondered if the lack of chances and recent success made him yanked those shots instead.
interesting. from ornstein and mcnicholas: so it sounds like we will at least save what we would have owed aubameyang next year where we will pay part of whatever remains of this year.
You said that Arteta should've cut his teeth at a lower level club like Lampard did, implying that it would have made him a better manager (if that inference was incorrect, let me know). But I don't think it made Lampard a better a manager. He lucked in to a good run to get to the playoffs (until he didn't), and he was pretty poor at Chelsea despite all that talent. If your point is now that managing Derby allowed him to get the Chelsea job, I don't know how that pertains to Arteta at all since he didn't have to take a lower league job before being hired. But my overall point was to just make a bit of a joke, obviously failing in that regard as you've taken offense and I've had now to explain the joke.
There are dominoes that have to fall. For example, how many of our targets would be interested in a move here if we cannot offer European football? How many other clubs will need a striker or central midfielder? Your overall point may be right. It probably is. I just fail to see why sellers would be in a hurry. The summer provides plenty of time to buy and to sell and provides a clearer picture of the landscape. If I were a selling club or agent, I’d wait and see what’s out there.
I'm not saying that sellers would be in a hurry. I'm saying it makes sense to start negotiating these deals now. Player purchases aren't equivalent to going to the supermarket. They're more equivalent to mid-market M&A deals, and those take months to close. Again, the selling club isn't exclusively a selling club (with a couple of exceptions). They're buying too, and they have purchases they need to make and fund. In some instances, such as where the player in question is unique and clubs don't have alternative targets, it makes sense to wait and see what the market is. But that's not most players (and also why Team Edu/Arteta's single minded focus on specific players is baffling - Vlahovic/White/Partey are good players, but they are hardly unicorns).
The length of time it takes to close is a function of how motivated the three parties are to get a deal done. Some deals like the Auba deal happen really quickly. What do you mean when say to negotiate? To tell them that we are interested? That’s pretty well established at this point. To offer them a price and salary package? I buy and sell often as part of my day job. From my experience, if you preemptively give an offer to a group that is not desperate and has choices, then that offer only is used as a bargaining chip for better offers. You end up negotiating against yourself. I get the idea of getting some of the leg work out of the way, if possible. I’m just not convinced that the process can be expedited when the picture is muddied. For our targets, there will be more than one suitor, and we don't know what we can offer the player sporting-wise.
I believe Liverpool have done exactly what @mebeSajid has suggested with at least one player, though I don’t recall the specifics.
Lacazette has never been a high volume shooter, he has never averaged as much as three shots per 90 in any league season, but he’s not even averaging 1.5 shots per 90 under Arteta. It’s probably attributable to both an age related decline and Arteta’s tactics.
I honestly do not know what Lacazette brings to the team that ESR can’t bring. Neither can lead the line or can get behind defenders, but ESR has better passing ability and scoring ability. If we aren't going to play with a real striker this season, then we might as well play ESR there.