Elneny, Kolasinac and Lacazette are all entering the final 10 months of their contracts, will they get buyouts like Ozil, Sokratis and Mustafi received last year? Will anything happen with Arsenal's young strikers? Maybe Balogun goes on loan if he isn't playing enough with the first team? Nketiah's contract is also expiring, he won't get a buyout but there could be some resolution. Could there be an exit for squad players like Cedric, Chambers, Mari, or Maitland-Niles? Could Leno want out if he is surpassed by Ramsdale? Baring an injury crisis and the need for a short term loan, I don't expect any incomings.
If they were willing to buy out Kolasinac they’d have already done it. They’ll let him sit and then go for free in January, without a buy out, if he’s tired of sitting. They will not buy out Lacazette without an incoming striker, they will need him when Aubameyang leaves for AFCON. Arteta trusts Elneny, he’s on relatively low wages, and he’s apparently well liked in the dressing room, why buy him out? It’s much more likely all three leave for free next June
Kola - he only gets bought out if he reduces his demands (rumored to want his full remaining contract). Otherwise he heads out in the summer or maybe loaned out. Laca - plays out his contract and moves on in the summer. Unless someone steps up we will need the ST depth and buying a quality ST in Jan will be hard. Elneny - likely leaves in the summer unless he forces a move in Jan. I think he would rather convince us to extend then force his way out. Eddie - either extends and gets an opportunity to prove his worth or he rots on the u23s and leaves in Jan/next summer. Balogun - should have went on a loan this summer. Assume sticking with the 1st team was part of his extension. If he doesn't go on loan in Jan, I think he needs to go on loan next summer. Other Outgoings - doubt we see any in Jan unless someone (AMN?) pushes there way out over playing time. I think Leno leaves but more likely in the summer. Jan market for GKs isn't typically good unless someone is desperate due to injury. Incomings - after what we spent this summer, I highly doubt we buy anyone unless we get desperate due to injury. IF (big bold if) we buy anyone it would most likely be a CM. Current roster in theory has flexibility and very little holes as it pertains to depth except at CM. You can argue quality all day but depth at most positions is actually pretty solid.
If I was skilled in this sort of thing, I'd 100% design an Arsenal logo where the cannon is attached to a tank. Similar to this... Unfortunately we're not gonna be able to stockpile draft picks using this strategy.
I thought I was showing restraint Re buyouts - they are a function of two things. One - how much time is left on the deal? Closer to the end, the less guaranteed money is on the table, the easier it is to buy out. In the last window before the contract expires, there is no more hope of someone coming along and offering to pay a fee. That's why Ozil, Sokratis and Mustafi all got buyouts last January and not sooner. The other is playing time. Players who are playing regularly are happy to stay, those who are not don't want to sit around with nothing to do for 6 more months. I hope Kolasinac doesn't play another minute, I'd rather see AMN or even Patino in the cups ahead of Elneny who will leave for AFCON anyway, and while I'd like to see Lacazette left out, I'm less confident of that happening. Will Laca be happy if his playing time is very limited or will he get restless?
We know the incentive for the players, what’s the incentive for Arsenal to buy out the remainder of the players’ contracts. Last season Arsenal were paying the salaries of players that weren’t registered, which created some toxicity around the team. That’s not an case this season. So the only incentive for Arsenal is financial, but I don’t expect any more Willians. The players and their agents will probably hold out for full payment, unless a deal is reached with a “buying” club and Arsenal pay the difference between the new clubs contract and the Arsenal contract. Either Arsenal hasn’t engaged in those types of discussions this summer or the players’ wage demands for the ensuing years of their new contracts have killed any potential deals. I’m not sure that will change in January. In addition, while both you and I would like to see AMN and/or Patino in cup games and on the bench in league games rather than Elneny, Arteta loves his experience and ball security and he’s only on £52,000 a week, so the financial incentive for buying out his existing contract is minimal. Finally, unless Balogun or Martinelli start scoring goals in bunches, they won’t buy out Lacazette until they have another striker over the age of 20 to take his place.
With Leno benched today in favor of Ramsdale. And the latter not having a bad day out in his first EPL test for us. I wonder if there's any chance of Leno going out in January. But then if we were to do that, we'd have to bring in another strong #2 at the same time right?
Was Leno a problem we needed to fix, or was Ramsdale just too good to pass up? Maybe Leno has hinted at being unhappy at Arsenal and we knew he would need to be replaced this year or next? I just really hadn't given Leno much of a thought until Ramsdale started vs. Norwich.
Yes I think that's it. Also, in the last 6-12 mos he had started to show a little bit of regression, a few more mistakes, which introduced more doubts. Prior to that (and even into this most recent window TBH) I didn't think our #1 was a problem that needed to be fixed, more so our #2. So, if I'm being generous, I'd say that management may have fixed both #2 & #1 in one fell swoop... Ramsdale. And next summer, assuming Leno's gone and Ramsdale is good enough for #1, then we'll need to buy or promote a new #2.
The club has clearly mismanaged the GK situation over the last decade since Mad Jens was the last undisputed starter. Almunia, Fabianski, Szcesny, and even Ospina were all possible replacements, but none of them was ready to earn/win the starting spot. It's sad the Cech was a notable upgrade over that previous list, despite being a Chelski cast-off. on Monday's ArseCast, they were discussing how Ramsdale seems to be a better communicator than Leno. They made it clear that Leno does shout instructions, but Ramsdale seems to have much better command of the backline. That may be the key piece we need to shore up our defense, and why Ramsdale was deemed an essential upgrade, especially being English and also at a reasonably young age.
Seeing some rumors of a possible Laca + cash for En-Nesryi swap in Jan. Sevilla has supposedly expressed interest in Laca and we have been linked to En-Nesryi in the past. En-Nesryi has 4 yrs left on his deal but is said to be interested in a move from La Liga.
It’s funny because Fabianski became one of the best keepers in the league after he left and Szczesny replaced one of the greatest keepers ever at Juve. I think we had a bad goalkeeping coach and he messed it up for those two. Gerry Payton? Cech had issues with him too.
Despite all the clear issues we've had with getting rid of players, I will say that on first glance, every single player brought in this past window seems to be a big win. Which is a huge reversal of fortune from the past, what, eight years of transfers?
This took me down a transfer rabbit hole…imagine buying Kante for less than Elneny in that 15/16 window…I think Wenger would have been riding out of the league with a last PL trophy if we’d done that. Or imagine not buying Laca and Auba in the same year for a combined 100M pounds…Or imagine not spending 90M combined on Mustafi, Xhaka, and Lucas Perez in the same window… At some point I will find a way to get out of the fetal position today
Cheer up, there were a few gems in there... We spent £11M for Koscielny. I think the BFG was around £12M a few years later. Granted, Giroud wasn't the marquee man we needed to replace RvP, but at £15M, he paid for himself. Cazorla was half price at £18 or so. Bellerin was half of the £350k we gave Barca for he and (Toral, maybe?). Hell, Chamakh was free!!!
I think both big Per and Giroud were less than the prices you quote even. But both of those were a loooong time ago now.
Giroud was 12 million Poldolski was like 11.5 BFG was definitely under 10 million I think Cazorla was under 18 million. We started having the unproductive transfer windows when we only signed Cech. I would say we made a mistake buying Sanchez instead of building around Özil, but Sanchez was productive.