In his first term there was some discussion as to whether this was legal, that a president can’t pardon himself. It’s like this…you can masturbate yourself, but you can’t have sex with yourself. A pardon is like the latter.
That’s where various state attorneys general need to manufacture crimes and get him in front of a jury. They’ll know what to do. Realistically, the chance that he would live longer than the indict, try, and appeal cycle is pretty low.
Well, futures are sure dipping tonight. And gold is continuing its recent spike. Early signals are the markets don't like it.
Futures are pretty red right now, -0.6% for SP500 and -0.95% for Nasdaq. These are pretty outsized overnight movements. Gold and silver are up big as well, indication of flight to safety. If the market tanks for a week or more, we're probably gonna see some TACO
Trump is a real-estate guy, not a financier. His first instinct to increase the economy is to lower interest rates. And the people whispering in his ear (tech, crypto) want the same thing. What he's going to be going by isn't stock prices, but long-term interest rates, which the Fed doesn't have direct control over.
This is unprecedented - Powell makes a direct appeal to the American people. JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Jerome Powell says DOJ is threatening the Fed with criminal charges for refusing to follow President Trump's interest rate demands. pic.twitter.com/AKSzJmu3kf— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) January 12, 2026 https://nitter.poast.org/WatcherGuru/status/2010514562697584789#m
Trump tried to have his VP and Congress murdered in front of the Capital, and they still wouldn't hold him to account. Why would they turn on him then?
With an old understanding of Easter Island prehistory. The current understanding is there was no collapse (at least not until Europeans arrived and caused the usual problems). After the early deforestation of the island for horticulture and because of the rats eating the palm nuts, the islanders carefully and ingeniously managed the land to keep it productive. In other words, the evidence shows there was no "ecocide" as argued by Paul Bahn, John Flenley and most notably Jared Diamond.
There is zero chance Trump steps aside for Vance, a man whom he does not respect and feels contempt for. He wouldn't step aside for anyone, but the idea he would do so for Vance is borderline absurd. The only way the couch********er gets anywhere close to the big seat before 2029 is if Mango Unchained doesn't make it to 2029.
I have a hard time picturing him stepping aside for anyone, even one of his children, unless there is a direct benefit to him. But I cannot imagine such a situation that would require it.
The general view of MAGA watchers is the fact that Vance is openly running and trying to self coronate as "48" means Trump is not running again. That could change of course. One of recurring themes of Trumpism is just because Trump tries to manifest something e.g a third term, does not mean he'll be able to pull it off.
As things currently stand, it looks like Trump can't get away with a 3rd term - but that could change
I'd argue the opposite. He could get away with it. The SC would absolutely say it's a political issue the courts can't get into and even so, who has standing? And that assume a free and fair election which, at this point, I'm not sure will happen this year much less in a couple more. You just know these ICE raids will expand into more blue cities and targeted neighborhoods to depress voter turnout for 26 and Allah knows what for 28.
I don't think the question would be resolved in the SC - if you get that far its already a constitutional crisis Rather it's a political question - will other candidates run with the expectation of GOP primaries? It's clear since the off year disaster, that Vance is running, and his MAGA surrogates already refer to him as 48. They were not doing that prior to November - so that indicates Trump was not able to close that door. If could change of course. That's a different question. Whether Trump runs for a 3rd term depends on the GOP primary. In a functional democracy, he would never be accepted in to the primary, because he can't register in each state as a candidate. If he did in fact openly decide to run, I would expect the competitors to pull out - because it's a cult. Or if opposed, primary voters, would choose knowing he might not be accepted. Then a second question, given the inevitable decision not to put him on the ballot, what would the SC do about it?
IIRC Diamond has been called out by scholars for misrepresenting at least some of his examples. Another example : Norse Greenland, it seems, did not collapse it was just quietly abandoned due to climate change.