Thanks for playing, Kovacs. See you in 2024. Very interested to see how UEFA handles Soares Dias. His stock was high heading into the tournament but I am personally not impressed and don’t think he did great in match 1. Since he can’t go in Group F, there really isn’t likely to be an easy game left for him. Also very much wonder if (and hope) Rapanalli gets a big second one.
UEFA has a slight issue I think with the MD3 in group F. They can't use a German, French, Portugese or English referee who may all be in the top tier of Elite group officials and (I think) they've used Orsato, Cakir, Hategan, Makkelie, Lahoz, and Cerro Grande twice. So ignoring those awaiting their 2nd game that are basically here for experience, and unless we start getting into 3rd game territory, it looks like the two games in this group have to go to two from Kuipers, Grinfeeld or Rapanalli. I'd guess Rapanalli for the Germany vs Hungary game, and Kuipers for the Portugal vs France game, which I'm sure UEFA would have wanted to avoid given Kuipers is hot favourite to have the final.
The fact that Makkelie and Cerro Grande were used twice so early makes it pretty evident, to me, that there was no grand design to avoid certain referees having three group matches. I wouldn’t sleep on Osato or Makkelie working Group F and then getting a QF. Though Rapanalli getting Group F is intriguing. And Kuipers is obviously possible. There reaches a point where you can’t be fearful of using your top referee. Kuipers isn’t really a risk on Hungary-Germany if it comes to that.
Honestly I don’t see how UEFA can avoid using Kuipers on a consequential MD3 game or why they would want to do so. If he’s tagged to work the semis or finals, he will get four games. Because if you don’t plan for that and the Dutch advance, you will greatly greatly under utilize one of your best assets.
Well you got both in huge Group D games. Dias gets the two leaders and Rapanalli gets the two fighting for a third place advancement spot. Interesting. To me it looks like the Israeli ref could get another big game. His first one seemed good to me on paper.
Put me down as someone who doesn’t think that is going to go well for Soares Dias if England doesn’t get out to a fast start. Great assignment for Rapanalli. I imagine he’s also slated for a knockout match.
Based on performance, timing and teams I think that probably leaves Karasev and Kuipers for Group E and maybe Makkelie and Orsato in Group F. But Grinfeld could sneak in. I’d guess those are the five referees under consideration for the four remaining matches. But I could be quite wrong if UEFA wants to rush someone else for a third match. Feels like Ekberg and Kovacs are the two who are done, but again, could be a surprise.
It's Rapallini, not Rapanalli It would be shocking at this point if he doesn't get a knockout match, the only question to me is which stage and how big (and whether he gets more than one). If I recall correctly, that should make him the first non-European referee to do a knockout match (Egypt's El-Ghandour did two group stage games in 2000).
Really looking at it closely... Spain with a must-win at home feels like Kuipers. Oliver could then slot in on Poland-Sweden. Seeing now that Cerro Grande worked on two days rest, it's really not a problem to work with a three day break. I would then guess Makkelie for Portugal-France and Karasev for Hungary-Germany, though that is a reach for Karasev based on reputation, I think. One weird quirk is that Poland-Sweden is in St. Petersburg so this is the first real clear chance for a referee (Karasev) to work a home stadium. But I don't know if Russian referees typically get Polish matches or not. If you can slot Karasev in on Poland-Sweden and hold Oliver to the R16, you then have another referee (Orsato or Mateu Lahoz) working his third match in Munich. But after all this hemming and hawing, I'll say Spain-Slovakia - KUIPERS Poland-Sweden - OLIVER Germany-Hungary - KARASEV Portugal-France - MAKKELIE
Karasev handled Germany's shock home loss to North Macedonia less than three months ago. At the same time, Makkelie missed Ronaldo's "goal" against Serbia and reportedly apologized to Portugal. I believe now that any assignment is possible after Mateu Lahoz handled Guardiola's team. But these may be things to take into account.
I wonder if you just flip those two them. If you’re going to trust Karasev on Group F, I guess it really doesn’t matter which one he gets. Alternatively you could flip the two Dutch referees.
To answer this specific question, Karasev has done Polish matches at least twice: in the Nations League in 2018 (against Portugal) and in Euro qualifying in 2019 (against Slovenia, which turned out to be Poland's only defeat in the qualifying). So this is not an issue.
Hmm. Well, that would be a nice move by UEFA. But it would also mean Oliver has to wait for the R16 match unless he gets Spain-Slovakia. Of course, that's what I sort of expected initially. Each decision moves a small piece of the puzzle around, though. I guess when it comes down to it, whether or not Grinfeld is getting a second match is the biggest question.
Almost! Makkelie is not a good choice for Portugal, so Mateu Lahoz slots in for his third match. Grinfeeld is probably done, then?
Yup. I find some of the FO appointments odd, to be honest. @Mikael_Referee do you know if officials are returning to a home base between assignments or moving venue-to-venue?
This gets really in the weeds on planning, but... At this point, if Group F has a "best 3rd placed team" (which seems likely) three out of the four possible scenarios mean that team plays the Netherlands. So you have Netherlands v Portugal/France as a highly likely R16 game right now. In fact, if Spain's group has a "best 3rd place team," too, it's a guarantee. Wonder who is drawing that assignment?!
If you repeat an English referee, it’s Taylor. But my gut says Cakir. If it happens, or course. The Group E scenarios could lead to that group missing out quite easily.
Just dawned on me that if the Group E scenarios don't play out, it's still 3rd F vs. Belgium, which isn't exactly an easy match either. Not quite the same based on reputation and history, but would be two huge teams nonetheless. Now that I look at things and realize Group B and C winners were always likely to possibly face Group F AND Belgium and the Netherlands were clear favorites to top their groups... it becomes interesting to look at who hasn't refereed those teams yet. Cakir, Taylor and Orsato are the big names that qualify. Of course Taylor then went into Group F and Cakir has done Portugal (and Mateu will have done Portugal and France after Wednesday). So nothing is quite clean in that regard, but I still think Cakir is the sensible assignment for "toughest R16 match" because he's implicitly trusted with such an assignment, but probably not a top contender for the final.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but until we know which teams finish where, it's a bit of a lottery. But, engaging in the selection game for a minute, which I have a very poor record on incidentally, I would suggest that if we end up with a Netherlands v France last-16 game, might we see Taylor? I think the way it has played out, a potential Netherlands v Portugal match-up would probably be the most difficult to assign as Brych, Tayor, Lahoz and Cakir have each seen one of them by that time, and Kuipers is obviously out of that picture. Could you trust CdG on that? Not sure. Orsato? Oh, and my understanding is that the officials are returning to base after each game, and not going from venue to venue, though I am sure if the need arose, they would do that.
What about giving Rapallini a huge R16 assignment like that? You can trust him but you can also sacrifice him, too. Only reason not would be politics, which is admittedly a big one. We also shouldn’t forget Winner D v Runner up F could be massive, too, so there really are likely two very high profile R16 games to contend with.