With up to 16 free agents this offseason, it's going to be a strange and busy offseason for Theo and Larry. Picking up the option on Mueller today was a no-brainer and a great move. That leaves their lineup and rotation already signed for next year: Damon, cf Bellhorn, 2b Ramirez, lf Ortiz, dh Millar, 1b Nixon, rf Mueller, 3b ______ c ______ ss 1) Schilling 2) ________ 3) Arroyo 4) Wakefield 5) ________ Other needs: Middle relief help Lefty specialist in bullpen Here's the full list of guy's they could be losing BOSTON (17): Terry Adams, rhp; Pedro Astacio, rhp; Ellis Burks, dh; Orlando Cabrera, ss; Ricky Gutierrez, 2b; Gabe Kapler, of; x-Curtis Leskanic, rhp; Derek Lowe, rhp; Pedro Martinez, rhp; Dave McCarty, 1b; Ramiro Mendoza, rhp; Doug Mirabelli, c; Mike Myers, lhp; Pokey Reese, 2b; Jason Varitek, c; Scott Williamson, rhp. Analysis of three major holes: CATCHER Varitek is talked about as a key, and I agree, but I'm worried that we'll be stuck overpaying for him. I don't see any catcher on the market even CLOSE to his ability, so it seems likely his price could get inflated quickly. If Varitek doesn't resign, I'm guessing top prospect Shoppach will be given every chance to take the job. Maybe bring back Mirabelli to help that transition? #2 STARTER I'd target Pedro. Simply put, he's the best SP available, even coming off a subpar season. I look for him to bounce back next year. But Theo might have to decide whether the Sox are better with Pedro and a #5 starter, or Pavano and a #3 type. Financially, that would probably cost the same. Personally, I think this World Series demonstrated the benefits of having a couple aces in those short series. Lefty Abe Alvarez is still probably a year away from helping, though if he has a good spring, maybe he could be a decent #5 starter. SHORT STOP For short stop, I don't see Cabrera coming back. I like the idea of Vizquel, assuming he's willing to take a pay cut from his $6 million salary from last year. That seems guaranteed. He could be a perfect cheap fit to hold the fort until the young stud Ramirez is ready. This is a useful site, btw: http://www.soxprospects.com/
They'll never do it, but I'd go after Delgado. He'd be a massive upgrade at 1b, both offensively and defensively. That would more than make up for losing Varitek. Doug Mirabelli (who is signed for 2005) should be decent enough. Sign Pedro if he's willing to take $36M for three years, but that's the absoulte max. I'd let Lowe go despite the brilliant post season. He's be horrible for two full seasons now and still wants Cy Young money. Forget it. Replace him with Clement or Radke. I'm nervous about Pavano because he's only had one good year. He probably has more potential than Clement or Radke, but also could be a real stinker. SS is a toughie. I happen to think Vizquel is overrated and would be content seeing Pokey start. A lot depends on whether Hanley Ramirez is really worth waiting for. If not, then I'd consider re-signing Cabrera. I'm sure there will be one deal that is unexpected, I'm hoping for a trade with the A's for one of their pitchers. On a more general note, teams that just re-sign their aging stars tend to do a lot worse the next year. There's a real chance that we could finish barely above .500 with a few injuries (Schilling especially) if we don't add some talent.
I'll chip in on this discussion later, when I'm not doing something else. I'm just posting to remind myself.
Initial Thoughts: - If Jason Varitek is looking for 5 years/$50 million, he's not going to be on the Red Sox next year. This is a problem because there are not good free agent catchers on the market. The Sox would probably have to explore trading for a catcher... Ivan Rodriguez, perhaps??? - I don't care what he did in the post-season, Derek Lowe has been tremendously inconsistant the past two years. I want him gone. An undeniable talent, but I think we can do better for less money. - Speaking of potential replacements, how about Barry Zito? Gammons hints that the A's are considering moving one of their Big Three, and I would think that Zito could be the odd man out, despite the fact that he's the cheapest one. His home/road splits are a cause for concern, as are his HRs allowed this year... but he's the kind of pitcher that the Sox' front office seems to like -- the kind who pounds the strike zone. He's actually cheaper than Derek Lowe was this year. And you KNOW that Beane loves Kevin Youkilis... - Carl Pavano seems like the most logical target if Pedro decides to go elsewhere. My only problems with Pavano are that he doesn't strike a lot of people out, and he's facing National League lineups. Other than that, most of his peripheral stats indicate a pitcher who's just coming into his own. - Omar Vizquel scares me a little. He's at the age when players start to lose a step or two, and his defensive numbers are suggesting that he's lost a step or two. Honestly, I think the Sox should offer arbitration to Cabrera, and hope like h*ll that he accepts. If he doesn't, Vizquel is as good an alternative as anyone, especially since he's still a GREAT #2 hitter, and that would allow us to drop Bellhorn down in the order a bit. And if it's not Vizquel, I think you might have to consider someone like Barry Larkin (...who it looks like they'll bring in anyway...) or picking someone up in a trade who can last a year. Kaz Matsui if the Mets pick up some of the contract, perhaps? Cristian Guzman for a year? I don't know... I'm stumped. - A low-cost free agent suggestion: LHP Ron Villone - Former UMass product has good numbers for Seattle the last two years as a long reliever/spot starter.
More: - I think Kevin Millar is history. It's useless to have he and Mientkiewicz on the same team, and my impression of Millar is that he can absolutely be pitched to. At the same time, I view Mientkiewicz as kind of a Bill Mueller type - a guy who's going to benefit from playing at Fenway and hitting in this lineup. Guarantee me that he's going to return to his .300/.390/.450/.840 form, and I'd move Millar tomorrow. I actually think Millar has some trade value, too. - In the same vein, I think Kevin Youkilis can be dangled, too. Youk's a good player who I think will be a good major leaguer... but I don't see anything that makes me think he's going to unseat Mueller at 3B any time in the near future. I'd try to extend Mueller and see if we get any takers on Youks... maybe Oakland? - Kelly Shoppach isn't remotely ready to be in the majors. - Don't they almost HAVE to bring Doug Mirabelli back? Just to catch Wakefield?
I doubt we can get Pudge. My philosophy is that it's fine to lose ground in one position if you can more than make up for it at another.
Sign Varitek. 5/50 is only Boras' first offer - he'll go lower. I'd sign him for no more than 3/27. Agreed. Thanks for playing, here's your consolation prize - a ring to make you happy in Detroit. I don't see it happening. That said, I wouldn't mind if it did. Youkilis would stay if it were up to me. Platoon him with Mueller, get him really ready to be a starter. Mueller can split time between 3B and 2B. Sign Cabrera. He's made for this team. Wicked good defense, even made Ortiz look good at first, which is a task inandof itself. His offense will pick up - a lot of the drop-off had to come with the whole Montreal-moving-to-where crap that most of the season brought.
If it were me, I'd pick up Mientkiewicz in a heartbeat. The guy's got absolutely amazing defense over at first, and his offense will pick up with the Monster to shoot at, and the short porch in right. Millar's got great trade value - Piniella wants him, Minaya could use him, hell, almost any team could use him as a DH. Mientkiewicz is a Professional. HOWEVER, as I read on SOSH, the dynamic of the two halves of this team has to be addressed if he moves. Millar seemed to be the biggest bridge between the Hispanic contingent and the gringo contingent. Whenever Papi, Cabrera, and Manny were out doing sprints, Millar was with them. I would worry about team unity if Millar leaves and Mientkiewicz doesn't fill that same gap. Millar - the Red Sox' Captain Intangibles. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be here next year. I want Youkilis to stay here more than anything - first Boston farm product in years. Would he be if he platooned with Mirabelli? If we can't sign Varitek, God forbid, could we have Shoppach catch every fifth day, maybe for Curt, who's got the best targeting out of the rotation? That solves the Wakefield catching issue, and grooms Shoppach. OTHER ALTERNATIVE: Give Andy Dominique a second try. I don't like it either, but we can, like you said, sacrifice one position for another. If we lose Varitek, we have that much more money for other positions.
Now you're forcing the Sox to make a choice between Youkilis and Bellhorn... not sure I'd choose Youks. I just think his biggest value to the Sox is that of trade bait. Dangle him and someone like Abe Alvarez to the A's, and that might be the beginnings of a deal to land someone like Zito. I like OC, but the problem with signing him isn't that he's a bad player. Far from it... he's a very underrated SS. The problem is Hanley Ramirez. I took in a few Portland SeaDogs games late in the year when he was up, and I had the priviledge of sitting next to someone from the SeaDogs organization. He told me that the Sox view Ramirez as "Orlando Cabrera with power". They think Ramirez is going to be the starting SS in Boston in 2006. If that's the case, then you only need a guy who's going to be here for a year or two. No. Not when you strike out 1/3rd of the time in AAA. Let him spend another year there and see if he can figure out how to make contact more often.
I'm not sure only one year in Pawtucket's going to be enough for Ramirez, or Pedroia, for that matter. If Shoppach, once considered the best prospect, needs a good amount more time, why do we assume Ramirez won't? Sign OC for two years, with a club option for a third.
Catchers take longer to develop. Kind of like goalies in hockey. There's more to catching than any other position. I like the idea of OC for 2 years, but I don't think OC does.
2/16 ought to keep him, with a team option for a third year at 8.5M. That way, we cut him loose, it means either Pedroia or Ramirez is ready. If not, we've got another year with the best defensive shortstop in the AL East.
OK, Leskanic's gone. Sox used a $100,000 buyout of his team option today. I'll scratch that name off the list in the first post. As of right now, Martinez, Burks, and Gutierrez are the only three who haven't filed. I'd expect Martinez to file very soon, Burks is retiring, and Gutierrez can do whatever the hell he wants.
I don't think Ramirez spends very much time in Pawtucket at all. In fact, I think there's a good chance that he and Pedroia are the double play combination in Portland this year, although I can understand why the Sox would be hesitant to shift Pedroia. Maybe they'd be rushing him a bit. Either way, very few "big-time" prospects spend significant time in AAA these days. A lot of them seem to make the jump from AA straight to the majors. As for Shoppach, I think the Sox originally figured on him being a part of the 205 club. I think they were as surprised as anyone to see him strike out so much at AAA. He's got all the other tools you'd look for... good defensive catcher, strong arm, plus power... he's just got to make more contact. Gammons says the Sox think it's going to take 4/30 to sign him. If that's the case, why would you take 2/16 from Boston if you're OC? Vizquel is the best case scenario at this point, I think. I just hope the Sox don't go cheap on him, because if they don't get either Vizquel or Cabrera, then I think they're kinda screwed. At that point, I think they start looking at the Royce Claytons and/or Barry Larkins of the world.
I'm going to go the other way with that one. Clayton's only benefit seems to be the decrease in pay which frankly, isn't enough to merit picking him over Reese. I bet the Sixth Jackson could get Reese to try and hit more line drives than home runs.
I'm a huge Pokey fan. I feel strongly that Pokey is one of the best fielders in MLB history. His hitting was crap, but if you look at it pre-injury it was semi-respectable.
Recent chat with Peter Gammons on where the Sox might go from here: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2004/11/02/Gammons_chat/
Gammons says on the radio this morning that the Sox are already sick of Scott Boras' games regarding Jason Varitek. Boras apparently told the Sox that they needed to act quickly on Tek, because the Dodgers were showing a great deal of interest. A reporter then called up Paul DiPodesta, who responded to the inquiry by saying, "Who?" Gammons says the Sox have already made an offer to the Montreal D.C. ExpoNats for catcher Brian Schneider, who I think would make a pretty good platoon partner with Doug Mirabelli. Boston Herald reports this morning that the Sox could be interested in Troy Glaus, which makes very little sense to me.
Think Mueller would be open to a move to second? Then we wouldn't have Sir-Whiffs-A-Lot there, and we'd be able to have Glaus. I still want Varitek back. But I worry he won't return without a long-term deal.