Really Random Thoughts - 2024

Discussion in 'Liverpool' started by newterp, May 17, 2024.

  1. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    we know. we all know.
     
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  2. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    he's gonna grab 'em so nobody else is able to do it. that's protection!

    or he's planning to make the niqab mandatory? that's protection too, no?
     
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  3. speker

    speker Member+

    May 16, 2009
    Canada
    Club:
    Liverpool FC

    But when you are famous they let you.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
  5. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
  6. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
  7. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    On the good news front:

    Especially in PA, but pretty much across the board, there has been a huge turnout of women in early voting. So much so, that seasoned GOP pollsters and campaign advisors are very seriously worried that Lumpy never gets out from under this losing position. This doesn’t square with Nevada where Lumpy is supposedly leading so far. But his campaign is now very seriously worried about PA. Unlike Harris, should he lose PA, his road to 270 significantly narrows and he will have to flip somewhere like Colorado and Wisconsin.

    Analysis shows that women account for 54% of early voters across the country which apparently is huge. It should be a lot closer to parity or even in favor of men at this stage, by those who know these things. The conventional wisdom (and polling) says Harris has a 10-15 point gender gap lead when it comes to women.

    The Puerto Rico “island of garbage” “joke” seems to be having a huge effect in PA where there are 600k P. Ricans living. Nicky Jam (who was already pissed off by Lumpy for introducing him as a woman) has walked back his (Puerto Rican) endorsement and again, anecdotal feedback indicates that this is having an outsized effect. This Puerto Rico insult is looking like a huge own goal. Time will only tell if the effect is with the chattering classes or at the ballot box. But it looks that Lumpy won’t go unpunished (to what extent?) at the ballot box.

    More Republicans have endorsed Harris than any other cross party endorsements in presidential elections, if you follow me. Not sure how you measure that one.

    The Harris campaign despite its pullback in TV advertizing in rural N Carolina believes the state is still in play (they’re paid to say that, right?).

    Poll watchers in GA and MI think Harris is ahead in both in early voting.
     
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  8. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    thumbs up - keep this vibe going please.....

    you were depressing me this past coupel of days!
     
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  9. newterp

    newterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 6, 2007
    North Potomac, MD
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    I was reading something similar about internal Trump polling becoming very worrisome to them as well.

    I can only hope there are enough sane people that will do the right thing.

    As I've specifically noted here earlier - I think there are a ton of women and new voters that just won't be controlled by basic lies and an utter lack of decency.

    Conversely - the number of ********ing weird women who shed tears and clap like monkeys at Trump rallies utterly utterly utterly baffles me.
     
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  10. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    i have zero concern for peopel at Trump rallies. They are the loon/mooney-type brigade, and are not reachable with logic.

    My concern is that they represent at best about 20-25% of the country. The significance of the utter poison that is social media/podcasting (and it's Russian help-control matrixing) upon the capacities of the semi-average everyday human is my worry here....

    the utter disregard for common sense by people like Joe Rogan is absurdly astonishing.
     
  11. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    I found a few of them who wear maxipads. On their ears.

    IMG_5377.jpeg
     
  12. delaynomo

    delaynomo Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Never discount the ability of people to vote with their wallet and nothing else.
     
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  13. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    Filed under: I did not know that.

    As everyone knows (yes?) TV political advertizing is controlled rather strictly (“I’m Lumpy and I paid for this ad”), but because streaming is not broadcast, it’s not regarded as TV, and therefore is not subject to the same rules as TV advertizing.

    Disclosures about who’s paying for the ad are not required, meaning Vladdy and his videoboys can broadcast away to their heart’s content with Jeff B., Tim C., Bobby I. Reed Hastings and the other institutional owners such as Vanguard, Blackrock and so on. Seems fraught with tales of foreign interference to me.
     
  14. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    Speaking of Vladdy and his videoboys…Russia today fined Google (deep breath) two undecillion roubles for restricting Russian state media channels on YouTube.

    For those peons out there who have never worked for Elon Musk, 2 undecillion is a two followed by 36 zeroes. Translated into dollars, that’s
    $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Which is a damn site more than the GDP of the whole world. I’m hearing the open bar at the Google Christmas party might be canceled.
     
  15. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Joe rogan doesn't have wallet problems, though.

    I assume he's got more dosh than say, Sam Harris - who is often of a like mind - but he's been pretty starkly clear on the danger of Trump to a stable democratic society with functioning norms....

    Admittedly there is a major intelligence gap between those two.....
     
  16. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    “Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them.”

    “She’s [Liz Cheney] a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

    Now, maybe it’s just me and maybe I’m reading too much into this, but is there a disconnect between these two sentiments?
     
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  17. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    I’m thinking the narrative has changed in the past week. Last week, the election, in my opinion, was undoubtedly only going one way, a Lumpy win. Momentum, exposure, Harris errors. Lumpy all the way. But since the weekend, starting probably with the ridiculous Nuremberg rally in MSG, Lumpy has stepped on his dick pretty much everyday. Now, he’s getting the wrong sort of exposure, it’s scrutinizing exposure rather than adulatory exposure.

    Then there’s also a feeling Harris’ campaign is finally pulling at the strings together into one. To use a footballing analogy, it’s like 30-40 passes going nowhere, back, side to side, no pressure being applied, no danger apparent, ball in the middle third all the time. Then suddenly, everything begins to pay off and you’re through in goal.

    Obviously, there’s still loads of time to lose this, a lot still has to go right and being through on goal is not the same as being 1-0 up, but the tactics seem to working.

    I firmly expect poll/vote damage wherein drop boxes are burnt as they have already been in Washington state and there will be some sort of attack/intimidation on polling stations. The legal route will be very busy. There already has been the outrageous SC decision this week pertaining to Virginia and I’m sure there will be a few more like this at local level. I do expect PA to be targeted every which way and no matter the result if he loses, Lumpy is going to charge rigging/interference. Anyway that’s enough in the crystal ball front.

    Harris is better positioned to win this, but still only just so.
     
  18. newterp

    newterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 6, 2007
    North Potomac, MD
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lots of misinformation to come I'm sure.
     
  19. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Translated into dollars, that’s
    $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    And Next Week, Russia will fine Arsenal

    $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,001 ;)
     
  20. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    There have been more than a few partisan (read: GOP leaning) polls in the last few weeks with rather dubious methodologies or indeed who refuse to release their methodologies. All of them have returned leads for Lumpy. Not egregious, but out of sync with more reputable pollsters. For example one in NC has Lumpy up by 2-3 points whereas the strait laced polls have it 50/50. So enough to be almost realistic, but gamed to show Lumpy ahead. Ahead in every swing state, all 7 of ‘em. No harm, no foul, right? Just those crazy kids having a bit of fun. Yeah, not so much.

    Lumpy is claiming at every rally and every interview that he’s ahead, he’s winning and that low IQ Kamala is toast. This is all a pretext or table setter to claim that the election was stolen from him. Assuming he loses, say, Michigan, watch him arrow off to court claiming the polls showed him ahead and the will of the people is being subverted. Guaranteed. These polls are about instilling the perception of momentum and the belief that the only way he can lose is by cheating. These polls will be used as evidence that he was really ahead, that he really won. And if he does in fact win? We’ll never hear of them again.

    If you think this is a little fanciful and perhaps even conspiracy theory laden, just remember they did the same in the congressional elections in ‘22. Remember the “red wave”? The one that never materialized? Same playbook.
     
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  21. newterp

    newterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 6, 2007
    North Potomac, MD
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And don't forget he tried this in a much more haphazard fashion in 2020.
     
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  22. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    First question in court -

    "and for the record - what was the last poll which was conducted by your company, prior to the one you are asserting here?"
     
  23. bayred

    bayred Member+

    Liverpool FC
    United States
    May 28, 2018
    Gonna be a game of inches. My bet is VAR is going to play a big role in this one.
     
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  24. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
  25. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    You mean the SC? :p
     

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