Rating best players in the World Cup

Discussion in 'Players & Legends' started by Trachta10, May 2, 2020.

  1. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Titanlux, carlito86 and msioux75 repped this.
  2. Tropeiro

    Tropeiro Member+

    Jun 1, 2018
    Little better than the other graph.

    Pelé did have more shots tho.

    Footstats numbers

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ^^
    There also shots from the below the middle of the pitch that aren't in the graph.

    Voetbal International magazine also shows more shots to Pelé too (35, 14 on target) similar numbers to Footstats.

    [​IMG]



    I would say it should be weighted tho.

    Assists and Goals in the group stages should value about 2.5, in the KO rounds (apart of the final) 5 and in the final 7.5.

    You can't compare stats from the group stages (playing against Korea etc) with the stats from a KO round or especially a WC final.

    You can make it per 90 or per match too like you did in the other thread.
     
  3. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Interesting to see any attempt like this, so kudos on doing all the calculations and producing the chart!

    I think I'd take off Shots Off Target. If anything I'd be tempted to score them minus 1 (like duels lost) rather than 1, but probably I'd just leave them off.

    I suppose the problem is we can't start making qualitative judgements because
    a) too much work to check all the footage, and
    b) it then isn't a pure statistical calculation and value judgements have to happen, even if most might agree on certain shots being better than others (great save by the goalkeeper or easy save for example), certain decisions being better than others etc etc.

    I did wonder about incorporating chances created as one addition that would be good, but maybe key passes are a good alternative (I should read about them again and understand fully what they are!).
     
  4. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Funny then that the OPTA Index itself (& Castrol) had in fact not Maradona 1986 as the best of all time, even less so by miles above the rest. And that against, on average per ELO, not super strong opposition.
     
  5. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    I think the stats will always be interesting and useful when summarised/collected, but in the end each individual will have a better idea of what they really think by watching the performances. Then of course it becomes subjective to rank players, but in any stats system there can also be intentional or unintentional bias in terms of what to value, what weights to give to each action, how sophisticated the system is and suchlike.

    In terms of other possible improvements to the one of the OP, I guess interceptions (if not covered by duels) could be one to add, to reflect a bit more the defensive side. Not sure about clearances though, as no separate goal-line clearances will be listed I guess and to give a possible scenario of 2 players getting to a ball before an attacker and one clearing the ball out of play or randomly into midfield, while the other passes it to an attacking colleague, or into midfield accurately, we wouldn't want to reward the former more than the latter would we (maybe the latter would count as a pass and a clearance but I'm doubting it)?

    Especially impressive pieces of play involving ball control or progressive passes for example can't really be rewarded I suppose. Although maybe they get reflected in a lot of instances if they lead to a successful dribble (positive for duels won) or a successful pass, or key pass even.
     
  6. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    So in summary my initial ideas would be introduce chances created (2 points if keeping key passes too?) and interceptions (or 'recoveries' maybe) for 1 point, as well as taking out shots off target.

    I think I'd value a key pass over a shot on target, but if chances created could be added too maybe no need to change the balance as a key pass that created a chance would then be worth 4 (not sure if it led to an assist that would be 9, or just 5 for the assist and nothing else). Maybe pass accuracy could be reflected by multiplying number of passes by it, which would reduce slightly the rewards for passes in themselves - maybe passes in opposition half should come into it too as defenders often make quite a lot of 'easy passes' (and if we reward them more for interceptions maybe that balances things off and values their primary job a bit more, while the pass accuracy factor would still reward accurate play).
     
  7. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    PDG1978 I always thought chances created and key passes are the same, I will try to do what you said

    I made two changes, now only count correct passes
    (Pass*Pass%)/100

    and duels pts favor the most active players, making duel won 1pts and duel lost -0.5 pts, for example if a player does in one match
    before:
    1 duel won and 1 duel lost = 0 pts
    10 duel won and 10 duel lost = 0 pts
    now:
    1 duel won and 1 duel lost: = 0.5 pts
    10 duel won and 10 duel lost = 5 pts

    [​IMG]

    Per 90 minutes, removing players with less than 270 minutes

    [​IMG]
     
    PDG1978 repped this.
  8. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Same score for players in the top 5 leagues current season 19/20

    [​IMG]
     
    Titanlux repped this.
  9. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo 09/10 to 19/20 (league)

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Titanlux

    Titanlux Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Nov 27, 2017
    ¿Cómo navegas entre los campeonatos del mundo? ¿Solo está el Argentina - Hungría?
     
  11. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Para los mundiales pre 2010 hay muy pocos partidos con información

    Solo tienes que ir navegando y haciendo click por ahi
    2010
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/equipo.html?competition=4&season=2009
    2014
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/equipo.html?competition=4&season=2013

    Algunos partidos disponibles
    Holanda vs España 2010
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=2009&match=318304
    Argentina vs Alemania 2014
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=2013&match=731830
    Inglaterra vs Francia 1982
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=27&match=312759
    Italia vs Brasil 1982
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=27&match=312798
    Alemania vs Francia 1982
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=27&match=312800
    Holanda vs Alemania 1974
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=35&match=312879
    Brasil vs Italia 1970
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=39&match=312911
    Inglaterra vs Alemania 1966
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=43&match=312943
    Brasil vs Francia 1998
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=16&match=312203
    Argentina vs Inglaterra 1998
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=16&match=312195
    Argentina vs Inglaterra 1986
    https://www.ole.com.ar/estadisticas/futbol/partido.html?competition=4&season=23&match=312708
     
  12. Titanlux

    Titanlux Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Nov 27, 2017
    Ok, muchas gracias. Yo lo decía por enriquecer los ratings de los mundiales en los que he trabajado en este blog. Una joya esta aportación que haces.
     
    Trachta10 repped this.
  13. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    #14 Trachta10, May 19, 2020
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/world-cup-comparisons/diego-maradona-1994/

    I was watching this web and it seems Maradona 1994 has 28.8 passes "per game"?, but remember seeing that Maradona made 107 correct passes in 174 minutes, thats 55 passes per game, so what's is going on here?
    It seems that here they put the data divided by the number of games played by the team and not by the player. Argentina played 4 games in this WC so is 107 passes divided by 4 which gives 26.8 passes, thats the same for every player.

    I want to know the total amount of passes, dribbles, goals, etc. of each player in all their matches, so I have to multiply the numbers shown on this website by the number of games played by the team, that's for each World Cup and then add everything

    It will take me some time, for now I have the players from Argentina.

    [​IMG]

    It is not exact, because I know that Maradona has 105 dribbles while Messi has 107, but I think it is close enough, it is a pity not to have the raw data
     
  14. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    So I tried to make a score per 90 minutes played:
    Passes: 0.1 pts
    Progressive passes: 0.25 pts
    Take-ons: 3 pts
    Progressive dribbles: 1 pts
    Non-shot exp goals: 20 pts
    Fouls drawn: 1 pts
    Fouls committed: -1 pts
    Headers: 1 pts
    Blocks: 10 pts
    Clearances: 0.5 pts
    Interceptions: 2 pts
    Tackles: 2 pts
    Goals: 10 pts
    Expected goals: 10 pts
    Crosses: 0.5 pts
    Touches in box: 0.5 pts

    [​IMG]

    But I realize that this is underestimating the forwards a lot, even Batistuta is pretty low, so I create a new "metric" called effectiveness.
    Basically is (Non-shot exp goals*3+Goals+Expected goals)/(Passes+Touches in box+Fouls committed)*100. At least this changes the score a bit

    [​IMG]

    And now the major problem, who is better, should give those players who played the most minutes a scoring advantage, so I make an average between the "total points" and the "points per 90 minutes", making (total points/minutes^(1/2))

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Added more players

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    The same score but compressed

    [​IMG]

    I will try to add more players, and see if I can use the Elo ratings to calculate the average difficulty of opponents
     
    Titanlux repped this.
  17. Titanlux

    Titanlux Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Nov 27, 2017
    Great work partner, I think that with your last corrections you have come to obtain much fairer and more balanced grades. Are they with coefficients similar to those of whoscored and sofascore?
     
  18. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    well I dont think this is similar to what whoscored or sofascore do, mainly because they do the score per game and not per 90 minutes, so if a player plays a few minutes per game he will have very low points, also I don't know if they use something like expected goals or progressive dribbles-passes
     
  19. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    more players added, now blocks have a value of 5 pts

    [​IMG]
     
    Titanlux repped this.
  20. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    This is another version in which the score "per 90 minutes" has more preponderance, making (total points/minutes^(1/1,5))

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Now to calculate the difficulty of the match I chose to use the opponent's Elo rating level, and then adjust if the match was in the first stage, second, round of 16, etc.

    https://www.eloratings.net/

    Example: Maradona 1982 average: 2040
    Belgium: 1952
    Hungary: 1802
    El Salvador: 1558
    Second stage:
    Italy: 1911*(1.2)= 2293
    Brazil: 2162*(1.2)= 2594
    (1952+1802+1558+2293+2594)/5= 2040

    For the 1966-1970 WC:
    First stage: x1
    Quarter-finals: x1.1
    Semi-finals: x1.3
    Final: x1.5
    Third place: x1.1

    For the 1974-1978 WC:
    First stage: x1
    Second stage: x1.2
    Final: x1.5
    Third place: x1.1

    For the 1982 WC:
    First stage: x1
    Second stage: x1.2
    Semi-finals: x1.3
    Final: x1.5
    Third place: x1.1

    For the 1986-2018 WC:
    First stage: x1
    Round of 16: x1.1
    Quarter-finals: x1.2
    Semi-finals: x1.3
    Final: x1.5
    Third place: x1.1

    Points*AvgElo/2000

    [​IMG]
     
    Titanlux repped this.
  22. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    I really think Opta is a more reliable source
     
  23. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    More players added, and some changes

    Passes: 0.125 pts
    Progressive passes: 0.5 pts
    Take-ons: 3 pts
    Progressive dribbles: 1 pts
    Non-shot exp goals: 50 pts
    Fouls drawn: 1 pts
    Fouls committed: -1 pts
    Headers: 1 pts
    Blocks: 5 pts
    Clearances: 0.25 pts
    Interceptions: 1 pts
    Tackles: 2 pts
    Goals: 10 pts
    Expected goals: 10 pts
    Crosses: 1 pts
    Touches in box: 0.5 pts
    Effectiveness: x2

    All the points are added, and then divided by the number of minutes^(1/1.5),
    this is to give players with the most minutes played an advantage.

    [​IMG]
     
    Titanlux repped this.
  24. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    More players, effectiveness value x3, the score divided into pass, dribble, defense and attack

    [​IMG]

    The same score of some players for single world cup

    [​IMG]
     
    Titanlux repped this.

Share This Page