The Rapids currently sit in 7th in the West with a paltry 22 points, all of which were earned before July. The current standings are SJE 44 RSL 42 SEA 34 VAN 34 LAG 33 ----------->(1-5 playoff spots) CHV 26 COL 22 FCD 22 POR 19 With 12 games remaining, we have 6 home, and 6 away. What kind of hill do the Rapids have to climb to get back into a playoff slot? In the last 2 years of 34-game seasons, in 2011, 43 points was enough to beat out Portland for the last spot in the West. (The Rapids ended up in 5th with 49 points). In 2010, 40 pts was enough to land the last playoff slot. With 12 games remaining, that's 36 possible points at stake. Winning them all would put the Rapids at 58 points, a very unlikely scenario, but the point is, enough points are available to at least get into the 40's, and a potential playoff berth. Discuss.
Remaining schedule: RSL @FCD CHV @SJE @POR POR @LAG @VAN LAG SJE @CHV HOU Only 1 Eastern Conference game.
I was just thinking today about what "rebuilding" in soccer looks like during a season. This is the first time I can remember that the Rapids were out of the playoff hunt this early. So is there anything they can do to improve their position for next year? In baseball, you turn into a "seller" and trade veterans for minor league prospects. What do you do in soccer? In my humble opinion, it's time to look to next year.
Could we go 6-6 and hit exactly 40 points? Sure, but we're going to have to toughen up and start grinding out some draws in lieu of the losses. 6-3-3 would get us to 43, and (recent) historically, the bottom playoff spot. It's a tough road. If we beat the two weakest upcoming opponents at home (POR, CHV) we would still have to get four more wins. The remaining home opponents would be RSL, LAG, SJE, and HOU, all in great form right now. The weakest batch of road games is @FCD, @POR, @CHV. Two wins out of that group, and defensively figure out how to at least hold some of the elites to draws at home or away. It'd be nice, and certainly possible, to get a win against one of the elite. We outplayed LAG the first time at home and lost. EDIT: Looking at the standings again, we'll have to take points from the teams ahead of us--LAG leads us by 11, and its doubtful FCD and POR will help us much in that regard.
If we can beat the teams grouped with us at the bottom of the table (Chivas, Dallas, Portland) then that's 5 games - 15 points. We realistically need 20 points to think about the playoffs. That means we have 7 games against playoff teams to find 5 points and make up for whatever we drop against the teams close to us. The odds are not in our favor.
I always appreciate any statistical reason for optimism, any reason to believe the door isn't completely closed...but we first have to prove we can win a game again, before we lift our heads to see what may or may not be on the horizon.
I think the line for making the playoffs that you've set - 42 points - is probably too low this year. LA's currently on pace for 48 points. Vancouver for 50. Seattle for 55. Even Chivas is on pace for 44, and they're currently on the outside looking in. And Chivas is the only one of those teams we'd have a tiebreaker against. Theoretically, since we have games remaining against Vancouver and LA, we can make up points if we seize the opportunity. But we likely have to average 2.167 points per game from here on out to be in the hunt for the playoffs, which means we can afford to drop all of 10 total points in our next 12 games. Mathematically speaking, we won't be eliminated for another month, at least. But practically speaking, losing on Saturday gives us a nearly impossible hill to climb while needing a lot of help from factors outside our control. Especially given we're absolutely dead set on losing every game 2-1 from now until the Mayans come calling.
That's actually encouraging. Depending on how things go, destruction wise, 2013 could be a good year.
Also, to amend to my previous post: Chivas reportedly just traded for Shalrie Joseph. Two thoughts: a) Our chances for getting in the playoffs just got even slimmer, as those games against Chivas are no longer 50-50 encounters for us, and b) if Shalrie was available for trade, where the ******** were the RFO? Were beds on sale at IKEA yesterday? Is that not the most obvious gaping hole on our roster right now and one that's not getting filled any time soon, with the ultra-likely retirement of Pablo?
Little hard to fault the FO until we hear what Chivas is giving up. I wouldn't want to trade a long-term asset (Moor for example) for a year or so of Joseph.
Why do you think it'd just be a year? I admit his form has dropped slightly, but he's two years younger than Pablo and doesn't have any lingering injury problems I'm aware of.
Yes, He is a DP. Probably most obvious answer on why Rapids would never be interested. Also, no clue where money would come from, would not think we have that much allocation $ left. Lets us not forget, we are at the salary cap limit (Pablo counts even though he probably played his last game back in first month) as far as we can tell.
And now we know: Blair Gavin, a 2nd Round pick, and allocation cash. In other words, about 60 cents on the dollar. Also, as far as DP and salary cap space goes, I can only point to Edu, Zapata, Jamie Smith and a number of other players who, for a variety of reasons (and being completely dispassionate) are not performing anywhere near their salary value. We could trim if an opportunity like this came around. But of course, it's KSE.
But you can't, those contract became guarenteed when we released Q and such (in order to not be on hook). So we would have to find a team to trade everyone of them too. Didn't bother to go look up but Ives had this on Salary. ...Designated Player, earning more than $500,000 Lets also remember the MLS bends and breaks rules only for the top teams, not us.
Agreed. In theory, we'd be trying to catch one of the bottom 3 playoff teams, SEA (34), VAN (34), and LAG (33). LAG is the only team which we play twice, meaning we can pull within 5 of them with 2 wins. VAN was W D L L D W L = 8 points in 7 July games, the first of which was the 1-0 win here. We play them once more, and have played them at least even both games, despite the results. That's a chance to shave their lead to 8 points. SEA, unfortunately, we're done playing, 3 losses, and they have 2 games in hand on most teams. SEA is probably pretty safe. So, we need help from above, a bit of a swoon. If VAN were to finish out the season earning 1 pt. per game, as they did in July, they'd only be at 45 points--they only have 11 games remaining. The Rapids would need to earn 24 points to pass them, 7-2-3 would do it. Long shot for a team that's not pulling it together, but they could. Seems like things should fall into place for them at some point soon. If we don't figure out how to win consistently by season's end, it doesn't bode well for next year. Of course, our chances will change on a weekly basis, and we'll either be moving closer to a playoff possbility or farther. Anyway, Glory Glory Colorado, and beat FSL!
The landscape could change as quickly as this weekend with a win over FSL: 8/5 LAG @ SEA A Seattle win would move the Rapids to 25 pts, or within 8 of LAG, with 2 games versus the Galaxy looming. Also, Vancouver is off this weekend. The next weekend, 8/11 is RSL @ VAN. A Vancouver loss and Rapids win @FCD would gain the Rapids a net 6 points on Vancouver. VAN (34) COL (28) with 10 games to go, and 1 game at Vancouver.
Nice of you to put the work in to show the Rapids are not mathematically eliminated yet. But until Rapids solve the defensive lapses, there is no way they will get back into contention.