I did a little math to come up with adjusted goals. Basicly adjusted goals are how many goals are allowed/forced vs. what their opponents averaged in their other games. Anyways, here how things stack up. Rank...Team...AGF.....AGA.....AGD 1......SJ....+0.41...+0.46...+0.87 2......Clb...+0.66...-0.06...+0.60 3......NE....+0.27...+0.31...+0.58 4......KC....+1.04...-0.54...+0.50 5......Met...-0.26...+0.69...+0.43 6......Chi...-0.53...+0.22...-0.31 7......LA....-0.30...-0.04...-0.34 8......DC....-0.78...+0.25...-0.53 9......Dal...-0.48...-0.36...-0.84 10.....Col...-0.31...-0.72...-1.03
Ranked by offense: Rank...Team...AGF 1......KC....+1.04 2......Clb...+0.66 3......SJ....+0.41 4......NE....+0.27 5......Met...-0.26 6......LA....-0.30 7......Col...-0.31 8......Dal...-0.48 9......Chi...-0.53 10.....DC....-0.78 Ranked by Defense: Rank...Team...AGA 1......Met...+0.69 2......SJ....+0.46 3......NE....+0.31 4......DC....+0.25 5......Chi...+0.22 6......LA....-0.04 7......Clb...-0.06 8......Dal...-0.36 9......KC....-0.54 10.....Col...-0.72
Interesting. I like numbers and I enjoyed looking at this. I'm curious if the math of putting this together means that teams can jump up the rankings just by playing in a 4-3 game. If so, you have a seriously flawed chart. It's easy to check, just change the 4-3 to a 2-1 and see what happens.
And this proves what? BCS is needed because not all the teams play each other. Is this not the case in MLS?
Not all the teams have played each other, yet. Nor will they play each other an equal amount of times. No, a 4-3 game wouldnt distort things signifigantly more than a 0-0 game. In terms of opponents averages it wouldnt change anything, since their game against their opponent is factored out of their opponents averages. What would obviously decrease are their season totals of goals forced and allowed, but taking out any of that data wouldnt really be honest. GD wouldnt change though, since you would just be lowering there GA and GF by the same amount. I think I did however make one mistake, going to rework the calculations. Edit: An example, if SJ had won 2-1 their opponents average goals allowed and forced against other teams wouldnt have changed. However SJs goals forced would fall to 1.33 from 1.66 while their goals allowed would fall from 0.83 to 0.50. Both fall the same amount (.33) so while the quakes predictibly fall in offense and rise in defense, the goal differential is unchanged. This GD number when compared to the opponents average GD (since games against SJ are factored out of their GF and GA numbers) will therefore not have changed. Obviously GF and GA will change, but only because SJ's averages have changed, and their isnt anything wrong with that.
I made a couple errors in how I compiled this, including how I figured opponents averages against other teams (should have taken the averages of averages, although it makes me shudder to say so). Anyway, this is a more accurate table. Ranked by Goal Differential: Rank...Team...AGF.....AGA.....AGD 1......SJ....+0.37...+0.38...+0.75 2t.....Clb...+0.67...-0.10...+0.57 2t.....NE....+0.34...+0.23...+0.57 4......KC....+1.04...-0.64...+0.40 5......Met...-0.29...+0.62...+0.33 6......Chi...-0.52...+0.20...-0.32 7......LA....-0.54...+0.05...-0.49 8......DC....-0.84...+0.21...-0.63 9......Dal...-0.45...-0.38...-0.83 10.....Col...-0.26...-0.76...-1.02 Ranked by Offense: Rank...Team...AGF 1......KC....+1.04 2......Clb...+0.67 3......SJ....+0.37 4......NE....+0.34 5......Col...-0.26 6......Met...-0.29 7......Dal...-0.45 8......Chi...-0.52 9......LA....-0.54 10.....DC....-0.84 Ranked by Defense: Rank...Team...AGA 1......Met...+0.62 2......SJ....+0.38 3......NE....+0.23 4......DC....+0.21 5......Chi...+0.20 6......LA....+0.05 7......Clb...-0.10 8......Dal...-0.38 9......KC....-0.64 10.....Col...-0.76
The idea is that some teams are better or worse than their record so far. Looking over the chart, I guess the thing that stands out is Metro at 5th, despite having the 2nd best record in the league. Suggests that maybe they aren't as good as their record. Lurking, what you may wanna do is go back to past seasons and see if it is possible to keep up that kind of thing over the course of a whole season.