Ranking the Confederations

Discussion in 'World Cup 2014: General' started by Revolt, Jun 17, 2014.

  1. goliath74

    goliath74 Member

    May 24, 2006
    Hollywood, FL, United States
    Club:
    FC Dynamo Kyiv
    Nat'l Team:
    Ukraine
    Because they have something called European Championships, which also require lengthy qualification, so they only really have a year and a half to shake the WC qualification down. You want to introduce another level of qualification on top of the existing qualifications? No thanks.
     
  2. Tukafo

    Tukafo Member+

    Oct 12, 2013
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    The usual reason - politics. The minnows in Uefa have all votes and don't want to lose the lucrative matches against the big guns
     
  3. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Today's factoid:

    So far: COMNEBOL with 13 wins (in 17 played)
    UEFA 14 wins (in 33 played)
     
  4. Tukafo

    Tukafo Member+

    Oct 12, 2013
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Uefa 14 wins in 28 matches played. You count the inner-European matches twice
     
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  5. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Through Wednesday 6/25. A rather ho-hum day at the World Cup.

    CONMEBOL

    Round 1: 4 wins, 0 ties, 2 losses
    Round 2: 5 wins, 1 ties, 0 losses
    Round 3: 4 wins, 1 ties, 1 loss
    2.3 ppg, 76% of potential points taken

    Fix out of six ain't too shabby.

    CONCACAF:

    Round 1: 3 wins, 0 ties, 1 loss
    Round 2: 1 win, 2 ties, 1 loss
    Round 3: 1 win, 1 ties, 1 losses
    1.6 ppg, 55% of potential points taken

    Honduras tried to be the worst team in the WC this year, but were slightly inclassed by Cameroon.

    UEFA:

    Round 1: 6 wins, 1 tie, 6 losses
    Round 2: 4 wins, 3 ties, 6 losses
    Round 3: 5 wins, 2 ties, 2 losses
    1.5 ppg, 49% of potential points taken

    UEFA is thoroughly dominating round 3. UEFA is getting close to CONCACAF in ppg.

    CAF:

    Round 1: 1 win, 1 tie, 3 losses
    Round 2: 2 wins, 1 tie, 2 losses
    Round 3: 0 wins, 0 ties, 3 losses
    0.9 ppg, 28% of potential points taken

    Nigeria breaks into the final 16. With Bosnia taking case of business, today's match versus Argentina was fairly meaningless. If Algeria makes it through (and they are no lock), would two African teams in the final 16 be considered successful? I didn't think so either.

    AFC:

    Round 1: 0 wins, 2 ties, 2 losses
    Round 2: 0 wins, 1 tie, 3 losses
    Round 3: 0 wins, 0 ties, 3 losses
    0.3 ppg, 9% of potential points taken

    Another day, another loss for Asia. Were it not for Cameroon and Honduras, all four Asian teams would be in the bottom five. These jabronies have gotten a total of 3 points for the entire tournament so far.

    Round of 16

    • 5 COMNEBOL teams in
    • Netherlands-Mexico - Mortal lock that Mexico crashes out.
    • Costa Rica-Greece - Battle of the minnows.
    • Personally, the matchups decided today are not super exciting - France-Nigeria and Argentina-Switzerland. However, Confederation pride will be at stake.

    Of the decided teams (in or out):

    5 COMNEBOL (83%), 2 CONCACAF (67%), 6 UEFA* (50%), 1 CAF (33%).
    Two spots still up for grabs - USA/Ghana and Algeria/Russia

    *Includes Germany (almost definitely in) or Portugal (almost definitely out)
     
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  6. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Note:

    Results on direct head-to-head round 3 deciding matches:

    Italy-Uruguay. Italy would be in with a tie - and lost
    Ivory Coast-Greece. Ivory Coast would be in with a tie - and lost
    Mexico-Croatia. Mexico would be in with a tie - and won



    Update through Wednesday 6/25

    In
    (or 95+% of the way there. Example - France),
    Favored (These are teams that only need a tie to go through. Italy, USA)
    Strong Shot (Teams are in with a win, but could be undone by a tie. Algeria, Ivory Coast)
    Long shot (Teams that have a hope, but need help from others. Ghana.)
    Out (or 95%+ of the way there. Example - Honduras)

    By Confederation:

    UEFA:

    In: 6 - Netherlands, France, Belgium, Greece, Switzerland
    Favored: 1 - Germany
    Strong Shot: 0
    Long Shot: 2 - Russia (35% chance to go through), and Portugal (5%)
    Out: 4 - Croatia, Spain, England, Bosnia, Italy.

    COMNEBOL:

    In: 5 - Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Uruguay
    Favored: 0
    Strong Shot: 0
    Long Shot: 0

    Out: 1 - Ecuador

    Popcorn time.

    CONCACAF:

    In: 2 - Costa Rica, Mexico
    Favored: 1 - USA
    Strong Shot: 0
    Long shot: 0
    Out: 1
    -
    Honduras

    CAF:

    In: 1 - Nigeria
    Favored: 0

    Strong Shot: 1 - Algeria
    Long Shot: 1 - Ghana
    Out: 1 - Cameroon, Ivory Coast

    AFC

    In: 0
    Favored: 0

    Strong Shot: 0
    Long shot: 0

    Out: 4 - All of them are bums
     
  7. Car123

    Car123 Member

    Aug 5, 2008
    US
    Yes it would...
     
  8. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Factoid:

    COMNEBOL's losses: Ecuador 2x and meaningless game for Chile
    CONCACAF losses: Only Honduras
     
  9. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Ecuador only lost once.
     
  10. Conifeertje

    Conifeertje Member

    Apr 29, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    You mean the meaningless game they stated they would "approach like the final" because winning it avoided the bracket with Brazil , Germany, Colombia and France?
     
  11. Pindakaas

    Pindakaas New Member

    Jun 22, 2010
    The Netherlands
    The fact that Honduras lost all its matches and is the second worst team in this WC (behind Cameroon) tells me we don't need more spots for CONCACAF. The top 3 teams are good but the quality drops sharply after that. I'm not convinced that the teams that finished behind Honduras would have added anything to the WC, certainly not more than the second tier of UEFA. Keep in mind that not a single UEFA team ended pointless in the group stages and Italy was the only one not to get points from a non-European team.

    Also, I fail to see why Panama or El Salavador would bring more diversity to the WC than, say, Russia, Greece or Turkey. Just because these teams happen to be located on the same continent (well, partly), does not mean they have some generic "European" culture. This argument is just absurd to me.

    I also notice that people keep shifting the goal posts. When CAF sends 2/5 teams to the next round, it is a sign that they are improving and therefore they deserve more spots. But when UEFA sends 6-7/13 teams to the next round, which is statistically better than CAF's performance, it shows that European teams are overrated and they should give their spots to other confederations. The argument gets particularly ridiculous when the AFC is brought in. How can anyone claim with a straight face that Asia deserves more teams at the WC at the expense of Europe when all of their teams finished dead last in their group and not a single one has managed to win so far?

    The fact is that there are 32 teams at the start of the WC and only half of them go through. Therefore, if the berths are allocated accurately, you would expect each confederation to send about 50% of its teams to the next round. The more teams you have, the less chance for statistical anomalies. UEFA consistently sends 50% or more of its teams to the R16 so you cannot say they're underachieving or unworthy of those spots at all.
     
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  12. Christina99

    Christina99 Member+

    Argentina
    Sep 22, 2013
    Buenos Aires
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    CONCACAF much better than expected

    CONMEBOL the best confederation so far
     
  13. Nicola777

    Nicola777 Member

    Dec 9, 2013
    Club:
    Olympique de Marseille
    brazil-chile
    colombia-uruguay
    france-nigeria

    holland-mexico
    costa rica-greece
    argentina-swiss
     
  14. Christina99

    Christina99 Member+

    Argentina
    Sep 22, 2013
    Buenos Aires
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    who to win?

    I say

    Brazil
    Colombia
    France
    Holland
    Costa Rica
    Argentina


    Im probably wrong on most, giving how unexpected this WC has been
     
  15. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Group State Final

    CONMEBOL

    Round 1: 4 wins, 0 ties, 2 losses
    Round 2: 5 wins, 1 ties, 0 losses
    Round 3: 4 wins, 1 ties, 1 loss
    2.3 ppg, 76% of potential points taken

    Fix out of six ain't too shabby, though four of the teams packed into one quarter of the bracket is odd.

    UEFA:

    Round 1: 6 wins, 1 tie, 6 losses
    Round 2: 4 wins, 3 ties, 6 losses
    Round 3: 8 wins, 3 ties, 2 losses
    1.6 ppg, 52% of potential points taken

    UEFA snuck into second place on ppg and % of points taken on the last day.

    CONCACAF:

    Round 1: 3 wins, 0 ties, 1 loss
    Round 2: 1 win, 2 ties, 1 loss
    Round 3: 1 win, 1 ties, 2 losses
    1.5 ppg, 50% of potential points taken

    CONCACAF finishes group stage with an overall winning record.

    CAF:

    Round 1: 1 win, 1 tie, 3 losses
    Round 2: 2 wins, 1 tie, 2 losses
    Round 3: 0 wins, 1 ties, 4 losses
    0.8 ppg, 27% of potential points taken

    African teams really sank badly in the last round. Two did qualify for the knockout stage, but this WC should have been better.

    AFC:

    Round 1: 0 wins, 2 ties, 2 losses
    Round 2: 0 wins, 1 tie, 3 losses
    Round 3: 0 wins, 0 ties, 4 losses
    0.3 ppg, 9% of potential points taken

    All I can say is - good riddance to Asia. Iran was the only team that showed me anything this tournament, and they simply cannot score goals.

    Round of 16

    • 5 COMNEBOL (tied their 2010 record)
    • 6 UEFA
    • 3 CONCACAF (new record)
    • 2 CAF (tied 2010 and 1994 record)
     
  16. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    3 points/36 possible points = 8 1/3 % (which rounds to 8%) of potential points taken.
     
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  17. goliath74

    goliath74 Member

    May 24, 2006
    Hollywood, FL, United States
    Club:
    FC Dynamo Kyiv
    Nat'l Team:
    Ukraine
    Just a thought: when team A beats team B, Team A gets all 3 points and, thus, 100% of the points, while Team B gets 0 points and 0%. What if there is a tie: Team A gets 1 point (33%), Team B gets 1 point (33%). 33% goes into thin air. I would suggest using 2 points for a win in these sorts of calculations.
     
  18. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of the 8 last place teams...Asia had 4. (!!!!!)

    CONCACAF had one.

    Europe had one. (England!)

    Africa had two, including the "worst" team in the Cup, Cameroon. (To me, the concept of ranking teams who play different schedules is just weird, but soccer is the world's game, and non-Americans think it makes sense, so there it is.)
     
  19. rios

    rios Member

    Jun 9, 2006
    Club:
    Villarreal CF
    It's not fair to compare teams by points, they earned them against completely different opponents.
    South Korea did a lot worse than Cameroon, and way worse than Australia.
    And Iran, they tanked into 1 point, that's not comparable to the 1 pt earned by Japan.
     
  20. chris2787

    chris2787 Member

    Jun 13, 2006
    Houston
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    Sorry about your bad prediction.
     
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