Random European country elections

Credit to Melenchon here. It may be too much for him to endorse Macron but he is very clear about not giving a vote to MLP.
Zemmour by being even more right wing Tham MLP helped her a lot in softening her image.

 

So the lesson is every 70 years or so people need to be brutalized by fascist war and rule to get into their ignorant stupid brains it's not a good idea to have them running your country.

 

The main problem is that the non- le Pen voters are disappointed/against Macron and the end game will be decided by how many of these do go to the poll box because of a bigger disgust over le Pen.

 

Unless there is a major catastrophe, Macron will win it. Having said that, it is deeply unsettling to see a far right candidate being so close to winning an election in France. Liberal democracy is truly facing a major challenge.

Two new polls of the French presidentiel election today.

1/ OPINION WAY: Macron 55%, Le Pen 45%.

2/ IFOP: Macron 52.5%, Le Pen 47.5%.

In latter, voters for defeated left & conservative candidates all roughly twice as likely to opt Macron than Le Pen, but many not voting: pic.twitter.com/VA5T9ixPdA

— Taniel (@Taniel) April 11, 2022

 

Stop that. Go outside and spit.

 

Huh?

 

Stop tempting the wrath of the guy from high atop the thing.

 

You think I'm kidding but after every post where I said Obama would win in 2012 I did my superstitious good luck dance. Go! Outside! Now!!!

 

French elections results to be announced in the next 15 min. From all accounts, Macron should win lease by a 10 pt margin.
Le Pen getting over 40% of the vote is a sign of times though. She is truly part of the political mainstream now.

 

2022 French presidential election: Emmanuel #Macron was reelected with 58.2% of the votes compared to 41.8% for far-right candidate Marine #LePen, according to projections by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France Télévisions and Radio France. https://t.co/bxZwm5KXV2

— Le Monde in English (@LeMonde_EN) April 24, 2022

 

Le Pen has been part of the political mainstream for a while to be honest, but she still failed to win the presidential election for the 3rd time in a row. There's a good chance she won't be there in 5 years. I bet another Le Pen will succeed to her - her much younger niece and Jean-Marie Le Pen's grand-daughter Marion Marechal Le Pen (isn't 'Marechal' a sweet name for someone whose political model is Marshall Petain btw ?)

 

Was it Macron who 'saved' France (and the European Union, on a side note) ? Or all the lefties who voted for him only because they wanted to kick-out Le Pen ?

 

That is some good news. Another result would have been a disaster for France, Europe and NATO.
But still - the fact than more than 40% of people voted for a party whose founders were former SS and Petain lovers is completely beyond me. Something goes really wrong here.

 

Not different than 46% of US voters dropping a ballot for a racist, corrupt and nativist psychopath. It is a global problem.

 

While I am glad to see Macron win easily (despite the pearl clutching of the press), the first round results worry me more.


Emmanuel Macron La République En Marche! 27.85 (Centrist/technocratic)
Marine Le Pen National Rally 23.15 (Far Right)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon La France Insoumise 21.95 (Far Left)
Éric Zemmour Reconquête 7.07 (Far Right)
Valérie Pécresse The Republicans 4.78 (Center Right)
Yannick Jadot Europe Ecology – The Greens 4.63 (Kind of left)
Jean Lassalle Résistons! 3.13 (Centrist)
Fabien Roussel French Communist Party 2.28 (Far Left)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Debout la France 2.06 (Far Right)
Anne Hidalgo Socialist Party 1.74 (Center Left)
Philippe Poutou New Anticapitalist Party 0.76 (Far Left)
Nathalie Arthaud Lutte Ouvrière 0.56 (Far Left)

What is scary here is that a majority of the first round vote went to the far left or far right, some of whom (like Zemmour and Melenechon) are out and out nuts. The old establishment parties (the Socialists and the Republicans) have pretty much disappeared. Both parties received the worst results in their history (for the Republicans I am looking at the post war Gaullist parties as their predecessors). So when you take Le Pen, Melenchon and Zemmour, all of whom are anti-Constitutional, you have 52.17%. Toss in the smaller extremists and I think it gets scary.

Macron has an opportunity but more important a duty to reach out to many of those voters and talk them back from the fringe. I wish him luck.

 

I agree with most of it. I wouldn't certainly put Melenchon on par with Le Pen and Zemmour though. Besides his rhetorics, he's a classic far-left politician. Looking at his program, he's a kind of French Bernie Sanders. But he's a nut, that's for sure...

 

I would add that the irony of this is that there's a small chance Melenchon becomes Prime Minister in June... assuming the Left wins the legislative elections.

 

He is making a pitch for that. The way the French legislative elections work is such that I always have trouble figuring out seat projections. But there was a polls released today that shows the LREM - MoDem alliance with about 24% of the first round vote, LFI with about 19 but the RN with 23%. The second round seat projections show another majority (though reduced) for the LREM - MoDem alliance, but a huge jump on seats for the RN. Like the presidential election, the collapse of the traditional parties is evident, with the PS and allies at 5% and the Republicans and allies at 8%

http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/04/Rapport-Harris-Interactive-Toluna-V45-Intentions-de-vote-Législatives-2022-Challenges.pdf (In French but you should be able to figure it out).

One grace is that the RN always underperforms in legislative elections because it is easier to find a local cordon sanitaire