The US House of Representatives and the US Senate are both held by Republicans. Based on the Presidential nominee for their party, the GOP may lose neither, one, or both chambers. We're too far out for polls to be illustrative, so I will rely on a heuristic that has been helpful in the past: retirements. High retirement indicates (coarsely) that incumbents either believe they won't win their seat, or that their party won't be in power, or they're just old. We can determine the average competitiveness of these retirees (and therefore what the likely motive is) by examining three metrics: age of the incumbent, district partisanship (PVI, Dem is positive and GOP negative), and their intention (return to private life or run for higher office). In the House, 24 Republicans have announced retirement or a run for higher office, compared to 15 Democrats (skipping Puerto Rico). Of those 24, 17 are retiring while 7 are running for Senate seats. The Democrats have only 6 true retirements and 9 running for higher office. Bolded members are running for higher office; the age and PVI correspond in each row. Average age of Republican retirees: (58 + 37 + 64 + 43 + 65 + 39 + 43 + 72 + 60 + 64 + 63 + 61 + 68 + 54 + 51 + 65 + 52 + 76 + 43 + 66 + 55 + 46 + 59 + 61) = 56.9 Average PVI: (-17 - 8 - 8 - 1 - 19 - 13 - 9 - 14 - 15 - 11 - 4 - 5 - 2 - 0 + 1 - 3 - 1 - 6 - 15 - 26 - 2 - 5 - 2 - 22) = -8.6 Average age of Democratic retirees: (65 + 74 + 78 + 63 + 56 + 59 + 57 + 32 + 47 + 57 + 57 + 57 + 85 + 74 + 79) = 62.7 Average PVI: (-3 + 21 + 4 + 32 + 9 + 7 + 4 - 3 + 8 + 23 + 10 + 0 + 41 + 5 + 28) = +13.2 The average retiring GOP House member has a PVI which is almost 5 points smaller than that of the average retiring Democrat, and the average retiring GOPer is 6 years younger. Being a member of Congress is a cushy job. People do not just give up that cushy job for nothing. GOPers are looking at the likelihood of holding onto their seats, and the majority, with slightly more apprehension than the Democrats. Moreover, the Democrats who are actually retiring instead of running for new office are 69.8 years old, compared to 60.3 among Republicans. The GOPers are abandoning their career. I think it's a sign of a small pickup for the Democrats. Possibly as many as 15 seats. Meanwhile in the Senate, sixteen seats have been identified as competitive. The ages aren't as important, but the PVI is still very important. Of those seats, two Democrats and three Republicans are retiring. The PVI of the two retiring DEM seats is +5.5, and the three retiring GOP seats is -6.3. That's not as illustrative given who is retiring, but the fact that Barbara Boxer is retiring signals the Democrats may not have as safe a lock on recapturing the Senate as once thought. Maybe. The PVI of the GOP-held competitive seats where incumbents are fighting it out is -2.2, so maybe the retirements for Senate just haven't hit yet. Barbara Mikulski is also retiring, but she's also gonna be 80.
McCain is scared. “If Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket, here in Arizona, with over 30 percent of the vote being the Hispanic vote, no doubt that this may be the race of my life,” McCain said, according to a recording of the event obtained by POLITICO. “If you listen or watch Hispanic media in the state and in the country, you will see that it is all anti-Trump. The Hispanic community is roused and angry in a way that I've never seen in 30 years.”
Nice of McCain to admit he has a terrible voting record and poor policy beliefs where it comes to the Hispanic communities, coincidentally a big chunk of the populace he claims to represent. If he had a better track record he wouldn't have to care as much about who was up-ticket from him, he could run on his own merits.
McCain's 1st problem is getting through a Republican primary. He's facing a Tea Party candidate. If said Tea Party candidate wins the primary, easy Dem pickup.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016 Retirements are up to 18 Democrats and 27 Republicans. Two Republicans and One Democrat have lost their primary races.
I got the opportunity to meet Bob Dold of Illinois 10th district, which is arguably one of the most competitive congressional districts. He seems like a very nice guy and he gave a good answer to my question.
@American Brummie, do you have any poll numbers for Portman vs. Strickland? They seem to be going at eachothers throats pretty early in the cycle.
On me? No. Personally? No. http://www.electionprojection.com/ohio-senate-election.php Scott Elliott projects Portman will beat Strickland in a razor-thin race. The only two polls have them essentially tied, both under 50%. Incumbents generally win, and incumbents who poll under 50% typically lose. Strickland's lost recently, and losers have a hard time coming back. Polls this early aren't too meaningful in down-ballot races. Coattails are nonexistent, but split-ticket voting is very low and Hillary leads in Ohio. Portman hasn't endorsed Trump, meaning many Trumpistas might not vote for him, but Strickland's got the charisma of a wet noodle. Man, I dunno. Why does everyone ask me all the time?
I think Portman will pull it out in the end over Strickland in Ohio. Portman has gotten the official endorsement from both Coal Miners Union and Teamsters here, which is quite remarkable for a Republican. Public Policy Polling, a Dem-leaning poll, shows Portman +5 over Strickland right now. This race is far from over, but Portman is the favorite. I don't think Portman is a particularly great candidate in an election, but neither is Strickland. As mentioned above, Strickland has a stale personality and isn't popular. P.G. Sittenfeld was by far the more charismatic, inspiring, popular candidate to run against Portman. I could easily see Portman winning and Trump losing. Same with Toomey in PA and Rubio in FL. I could easily see all three GOP Sens winning with Trump losing. I don't profess to know all that much about Senate elections, but from what I do know, here's my early prediction: Solid R: AK, ID, UT, ND, SD, KS, OK, AR, KY, AL, GA, SC Lean R: AZ, NC, MO, IA, LA, IN, OH, PA, FL (I think LA is close to solid GOP, but I threw this one in "lean" because it'll be interesting, in a scary way, to see what happens with David Duke) True toss-up: NV (this might be the most intriguing Senate election this year) Lean D: CO, WI, IL, NH (the latter three all have GOP incumbents in deep trouble, particularly Ron Johnson in WI) Solid D: HI, WA, OR, CA, MD, NY, CT, VT
Might as well give California its own Guaranteed Democrat category since the general election will be run between two Democrats.
Good point, I had forgotten that. I think GOP voters might lean toward Loretta Sanchez, with her Orange County background and her somewhat moderate/Blue Dog reputation. Not at all saying she's conservative, just perhaps less liberal. She'll probably lose to Kamala Harris, anyway.
That's her thinking. But it's almost certainly a doomed strategy. Though one of the dying breed of Blue Dogs, she's still a Democrat, and she's going to have trouble getting GOP voters to cast a vote for her for that reason alone. Indeed, my hunch is that GOP turnout in November here in California is pretty low, which may mean the Dems can pick off a vulnerable House seat or two.
McCain may be ********ed. If he goes after Trump, he loses the primary. If he doesn't he loses in November (maybe.). So many GOP Senate candidates are gonna get ********ed by Trump, who is exactly the kind of narcissistic asshole who would, for example, tell his fans in Illinois to vote for Tammy Duckworth, or the ones in Ohio to vote for Ted Strickland. Or (please God please) the ones in NC to vote for Deborah Ross.
I hope people remember how horrible Strickland was as governor. Trump can't erase that horrible nightmare.
Yep. Strickland still has a 29% approval rating in Ohio. Portman has received endorsements from multiple major unions here and is up +5 in a Dem-friendly poll. I'd predict that Portman will keep his Senate seat regardless of whether Trump wins or loses Ohio. Not passing judgment on Strickland's policies here -- he's just not liked. The Ohio Dems made a mistake in picking him over charismatic, popular, fresh-faced P.G. Sittenfeld.
I defer to your superior knowledge of that specific example, but I still think Trump might kamikaze Burr or Kirk or Ayotte, etc.
I think Kirk, Ayotte, and Ron Johnson are all toast, and that Rubio and Toomey are in a somewhat similar position as Portman, facing the possibility of a Trump anchor, but fortunately for them also facing a poor opponent.
Also, Strickland was one of the most pro-Hillary cronies in the 2008 primaries. He used state trucks to deliver Hillary yard signs. On the government dime. Didn't get picked up in the news. Voted for the Libertarian against him in 2006, don't encourage people to vote for him this time. Portman's not great, but he'll play ball like Voinovich did.
The polling doesn't feel very positive from a Democrat POV. Within striking distance in several of the key races, but not pulling ahead anywhere. In fact it's the GOP that is looking to flip Harry Reid's old seat in Nevada. The one poll out of Indiana looks a like probably an unreliable outlier, but that would be an amazing pick up if it happens. Still waiting eagerly for more polls out of Illinois, but that looks like a tossup. Colorado - incumbent Bennet (D) 7/15 - Bennet (D) +15 7/13 - Bennet (D) +15 7/13 - Bennet (D) +13 7/11 - Bennet (D) +6 Georgia - incumbent Isakson (R) 8/1 - Isakson (R) +9 6/2 - Isakson (R) +12 Illinois - incumbent Kirk (R) 7/12 - Kirk (R) +2 Indiana - open seat - previously Republican 7/14 - Bayh (D) +21 Iowa - incumbent Grassley (R) 7/15 - Grassley (R) +8 7/13 - Grassley (R) +10 7/12 - Grassley (R) +10 6/30 - Grassley (R) +1 6/28 - Grassley (R) +7 6/13 - Grassley (R) +7 Nevada - open seat - previously Democrat 7/31 - Heck (R) +1 7/25 - Heck (R) +9 7/11 - Heck (R) +2 6/20 - Heck (R) +5 5/26 - Cortez Masto (D) +2 North Carolina - incumbent Burr (R) 7/15 - Burr (R) +7 6/23 - Burr (R) +3 6/20 - Ross (D) +2 5/25 - Burr (R) +3 Ohio - incumbent Portman (R) 7/25 - Portman (R) +5 7/21 - Portman (R) +4 7/15 - Portman (R) +1 7/14 - Portman (R) +7 7/13 - tie 6/28 - Portman (R) +1 6/22 - tie 6/20 - Strickland (D) +3 6/9 - Portman (R) +4 Pennsylvania - incumbent Toomey (R) 7/28 - McGinty (D) +7 7/14 - Toomey (R) +10 7/13 - McGinty (D) +3 6/28 - Toomey (R) +1 6/22 - Toomey (R) +9 6/20 - Toomey (R) +8 6/9 - Toomey (R) +3 6/5 - Toomey (R) +3 Still waiting on several states to finalize primaries. At this point I'd almost put Wisconsin in the safe pickup column for Democrats with Feingold. The next best shot for Democrats is Ayotte's seat in NH which at this point looks like a tossup. I see Rubio and McCain as pretty safe GOP holds.
I wonder if the Trump implosion will send more money down ballot? I know, for example, that the Kochs are sending all their donations to sway non-Presidential voters. It would be ironic if Trump ended up up helping the Establishment Right in the end.