R16 July 2 Brasil v. Mexico [R]

Discussion in 'World Cup 2018 - Knockout Rounds' started by soccernutter, Jun 30, 2018.

  1. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hi everyone,

    A friendly reminder: we're all here for the football. With that in mind, we here are taking a zero-tolerance policy towards expressions of racism, sexism, discrimination based on sexual orientation, xenophobia, ad hominem attacks, insults (towards a group of people, countries, or fellow posters) and trolling. Infractions will get you booked - and if you ask where was your warning, this is it. If you see a fellow poster insulting you or a part of your identity (race, sex, nationality, etc.)? Don't respond in kind - REPORT IT. It is the fastest way for us mods to handle the offending posts.

    So, with that said, good luck to both sides, and let's enjoy!

    The Moderators of Big Soccer
     
  2. Philip J. Fry

    Philip J. Fry Member+

    Mexico
    Jun 12, 2013
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
  3. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    [​IMG]

    Brasil

    v.

    Mexico

    [​IMG]

    Samara Arena, Samara (capacity: 41,970)

    [​IMG]
     
    Philip J. Fry repped this.
  4. Froboy69

    Froboy69 Member+

    Mar 25, 2011
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    My friend hasn't said anything since Mexico lost against Sweden...he's been oddly quiet ever since it was official that Brazil would be their next opponent....

    God if Mexico loses then I have to buy my coworker some drinks so that he'd feel better. -_-
     
  5. Philip J. Fry

    Philip J. Fry Member+

    Mexico
    Jun 12, 2013
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Tell him this exact words: "Hey, no te agüites. Podría ser peor, podrías irle a los gringos".

    He'll feel better.:p
     
  6. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    I said it in the other thread and I will say it here. "Mexico is the stone in Brazil's shoe."
    Brazil better watch out because Osorio saw how Costa Rica made Brazil work for their victory. And Mexico has more talent and more confidence than los Ticos.
    Should be a great game.
     
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  7. Philip J. Fry

    Philip J. Fry Member+

    Mexico
    Jun 12, 2013
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    I don't expect Mexico to win, but I do expect them to make Brazil sweat. Mexico's speed upfront should be a challenge for Tite's team.
     
  8. celito

    celito Member+

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    And sweat they will. It will be 95F at kick off.

    I do expect a tough game as usual against Mexico.
     
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  9. Froboy69

    Froboy69 Member+

    Mar 25, 2011
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    This is going to be a crazy game I know it.
     
  10. brasileiragem

    brasileiragem New Member

    Real Madrid
    Brazil
    May 21, 2018
    This game will be a very tough one. Osorio will try to surprise us. I really hope Fagner and Filipe Luis show a great performance like they did against Serbia. My prediction is Brazil 2-1 Mexico. Goals: Neymar, Lozano, Casemiro.
     
  11. leao1918

    leao1918 Member

    Fortaleza EC
    Brazil
    Jun 17, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Everything you said is true, but I doubt Mexico can play a 100% defensive game against Brazil like Costa Rica did. Mexico has way more offensive quality and they will attack (and I think Brazil will give them space for that, we've been doing this every game). Brazil will probably wait for Mexico's mistakes to create better chances.
     
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  12. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For what it’s worth

    Elo have Brazil at 2149, Mexico at 1843. A 200 point difference implies an expectation of 76% Brazil win to Mexico’s 24%
     
  13. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    SF North Bay
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    Spain-Russia was about the same gap: 2010-1710. We know how that turned out.
     
  14. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Yep. The game that was the biggest insult to the game in World Cup history
     
  15. celito

    celito Member+

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Brazil has historically only gotten knocked out by big or great teams since the 70s. In 74, it was Hollands Cryuff. Granted Holland had no pedigree but we know that team was revolutionary. In 78 we didn't really lose. In 82 Italy. In 86 France who had no WC title, but were Euro champs in 84 and they had a good team with Platini. In 90, Maradona's Argentina. 98 and 2006, Zidane's France. 2010 finalist Holland. And 2014 Germany.

    So losing to Mexico here would be sort of a first for Brazil, no disrespect to Mexico which always plays solid in WCs since the 90s. I had them going through to the KO round. On the other hand Mexico has had Brazil's number in a CAs and some CCs. So they definitely have the self belief that they can beat us. That confidence is very helpful. They shouldn't be coming out afraid.
     
  16. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    SF North Bay
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    Going to be a scorcher in Samara tomorrow..

    The two teams played in the heat in Fortaleza in 2014. Aside from shots on goal, a generally even match that ended 0-0, with Ochoa making several great saves.
     
  17. Redshift

    Redshift Member+

    Dec 14, 2004
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Corinthians Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    A couple of points on this.

    1. Even assuming those odds are roughly correct, if ELO predicted a ~25% chance of Russia winning and Russia in fact won, that doesn't mean the forecast was wrong. It could just mean we're in the 25% scenario. If you were to play the same match in parallel universes with identical starting conditions 100 times, based on what we saw, surely Spain would have won that game at least more often than not (maybe Iniesta's long shot goes in, or Piqué doesn't give up a penalty, etc.).

    2. Russia is a host playing at home. Historically, that makes a huge difference, and it isn't factored into a simple comparison of raw ELO ratings.

    3. Spain's ELO rating is based largely on its pre-WC form under Lopetegui, who was fired 2 days before the competition began despite pleas from the players. The resulting locker room turmoil and lackluster form under Hierro likely isn't fully priced into the ratings, which arguably don't discount prior form enough in this sort of situation.
     
  18. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    This is the 5th World Cup confrontation between these two teams, and Brazil won 3 and drew one. It must be noted that while the advantage in both wins and goals scored is Brazil's (Mexico has never scored on Brazil in World Cup play), those 3 wins are from decades ago, and in more recent time, Mexico has been a thorn in the flesh for Brazil. Brazil had many shots on goal in 2014 but Ochoa was clutch.

    Going back to 2004, Brazil and Mexico played twice in the Confederations Cup and twice as well in the Copa América. No draws, with each team winning once in each tournament. The 2014 World Cup match was the first draw in an official match ever - all other draws were in friendly games.

    The last Mexican victory over Brazil was a 2-0 result in a friendly in 2012. In 2015, Brazil returned the same score to Mexico as it was the winner.

    Overall, the statistics favor Brazil, but Mexico is definitely a difficult opponent for Brazil.
     
  19. Redshift

    Redshift Member+

    Dec 14, 2004
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Corinthians Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
  20. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    Mexico usually plays Brazil very well and Mexico has a history of playing a great game in the R16 against the elite only to lose in heart breaking ways. So history suggests a close one goal Brazil win. But so far, history has meant jack-sh*t in this tournament. I would not be surprised by anything from a 2 goal Mexico win to a 3 goal Brazil win.
     
  21. Shen-O

    Shen-O Member+

    United States
    Jul 26, 2005
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Forza Alisson
     
  22. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    IT will be interesting to see how things turn out when it comes to the crowd and atmosphere.
    Mexico was by far the home team in the stands in each of their first three matches (and I think it helped them get 6 points).

    I do not expect that for this one. It will probably be half yellow/half green around the stadium.
     
  23. Azurra89

    Azurra89 Member

    Juventus
    Italy
    Jun 27, 2018
    If Brazil scores at the begin, then it is a game over to Mexico. They will have to go forward and will probably take more goals doing that.
     
  24. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Ochoa is going to have to come up huge like he did 4 years ago.

    I am not sure he can.
     
  25. Philip J. Fry

    Philip J. Fry Member+

    Mexico
    Jun 12, 2013
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    It is not realistic for him to do that, but he's been in great form lately so, who knows?
     

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