Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Great work guys. It's fun just reading this stuff!! What a great ending to the season!!
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Funny stuff. There are only 2 rules in MLS. 1) Don't be first seed in the West (05, 08 Houston, 07 Chivas, 06 FCD, etc) 2) Winnings late is better than winning early
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation The closest I can get is this (winning team listed after matchup): NY-RSL RSL RSL-TOR RSL CHI-NE NE CLB-DC CLB COL-DAL DAL SEA-KC SEA SJ-CHV CHV LA-HOU HOU CHV-CHI CHV TOR-NY NY DC-KC KC COL-RSL TIE DAL-SEA DAL SJ-LA SJ HOU-CHV CHV NE-CLB CLB Not every result really matters for this scenario, but I chose winners for completeness' sake. The combined table would be 1. CLB 55 2. CHV 53 3. HOU 47 4. SEA 44 5. LA 44 6. DAL 42 7. CHI 41 8. COL 41 9. NE 41 10. RSL 41 11. DC 36 12. TOR 36 13. KC 35 14. SJ 32 15. NY 21 If you are trying to break the 4-way tie for a straight league table, use points-per-game head to head: CHI 11/6 = 1.83 NE 9/6 = 1.5 COL 7/7 = 1.0 RSL 6/7 = 0.86 So Chicago gets 7th and you don't get 7 West teams in the top 8. For 8th place repeat the tiebreaker without Chicago: COL 7/5 = 1.4 NE 5/4 = 1.24 RSL 5/5 = 1.0 Colorado gets 8th and then 9th comes down to goal difference, as NE and RSL split head-to-head. However, to accurately apply MLS's playoff rules, you first need to determine the 2nd-place East team team between Chicago and New England. The hypothetical win given to New England gives them the advantage in the 2-team head-to-head tiebreaker. So New England would get the #2 seed in the East despite being 9th or 10th in a straight leaguewide table. The last wild card would come down to a CHI/COL/RSL tiebreaker: CHI 10/4 = 2.5 COL 5/5 = 1.0 RSL 3/5 = 0.6
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation ThreeApples - You beat me to it. I just came up with virtually the identical scenario clustered at 41 -- only difference is I assigned draws to the inconsequential games. Gotta do the table this way, too complicated otherwise. Which gives you this table (the RSL-NER tie-breaker is pretty much a foregone conclusion barring some hugely lopsided games): Code: TEAM PTS 01 CMB: 53 02 CDC: 49 03 HOU: 46 04 LAG: 46 05 FCD: 42 06 SEA: 42 07 CHI: 41 (Wins head-to-head vs COL, RSL & NER) 08 COL: 41 (Wins head-to-head vs NER & RSL) 09 RSL: 41 (Tied vs NER head-to-head, big lead on GD) 10 NER: 41 11 DCU: 38 12 TFC: 37 13 KCW: 34 14 SJE: 31 15 NYR: 19 New England would be in 10th place in an overall league table. But according to MLS's tie-breaking rules, what matters is actually who is in second place in the Eastern Conference, and that would be NER under this scenario because it would hold the tie-breaker over Chicago by virtue of the hypothetical win. Then like ThreeApples says, Chicago would actually take the 8th spot because it wins the head-to-head against RSL and Colorado. Crazy! The 10th place team in the league would get a gimme playoff spot! If that happened and I were a Rapids fan I think my head would explode. As for scenarios where the second place team in the East is the 8th place team overall, therefore rendering all the 8th place tie-breaker matters moot, I didn't look but I suspect there are several scenarios for that.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Given that we've been the team most hurt by the wild-card system already (Finished 4th in the West but missed the playoffs each of the last two years) heads exploding is probably the least that would happen.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Anybody know the correct tiebreaker interpretation for the following scenario? Columbus gets one more point. Houston wins out. Chivas wins two and loses to Houston. 3 way tie for the Shield at 50. Points per game: CLB: 7/4 = 1.75 HOU: 7/4 = 1.75 CHV: 3/4 = 0.75 I think in this case they eliminate Chivas USA and go back to the beginning with a 2-way tiebreaker--Columbus wins on head-to-head 4 points to 1. The other possible interpretation is to go to the next criterion, goal difference, which Houston would most likely win. The website lists a note for how they remove the top team from a multi-team tiebreaker and then go back to the beginning to determine then next place, but not an analogous rule about removing a bottom team if the top teams are teams tied on a particular criterion.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Which means you go on to the second tie-breaker to determine the placement of Houston and Columbus on the three-way table with Chivas. By my read, under you scenario, Houston wins the Shield on goal differential.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I don't think so, the Crew would win it. Because the 2nd TB is overall GD, not GD between the teams. And the Crew have the best in the league (at the moment). But it wouldn't matter, because Chivas would be eliminated on PPG, and then Crew beats the Dynamo on head to head. In short, I think ThreeApples has it right, except for the GD part. Columbus is +12, Houston +9. Unless you are referring to GD between the teams, which doesn't make much sense either for three reasons. 1. Houston hasn't played Chivas yet 2. You'd have to decide on the basis of GD between the teams including results of Chivas, despite the fact they were eliminated at step 1. 3. Interpreting the rules, there is no mention of GD between the teams being a TB, and it looks like to me it would revert back to head to head after Chivas is eliminated, and Crew beats Houston head to head. Long version: The language from MLS: 1) The highest position shall be awarded to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points. (head-to-head competition) 2) If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the greater goal difference against all other teams during the regular season. (goal differential) 8) The first tiebreaker in a three-way tie is also head-to-head, but it is determined via points-per-game versus the other two teams. If two teams are tied in points-per-game head-to-head, the next tie breaker is goal difference. NOTE: If two clubs remain tied after another club with the same number of points advances during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ First, I'd say there could be some disagreement about whether the tie-breaker referred to in 8) is overall GD or just between the teams, but since the #2 TB is overall GD, and #8 refers to two teams tied after head to head, then they are talking overall GD. Plus, GD between games played between the teams is NOT mentioned as a tie-breaker at any step for a two team tiebreaker. None. So why inject it out of nothing? It also makes more sense, since in a 3 way tie, the number of games could be uneven (which is why they go PPG rather than points). So, it should go like this in a three way tie: 1) PPG among the teams 2) Overall GD 3) Total Goals When/if a team drops out, revert to step 1 of the two team tie-breaker if two teams remained tie (though that is a logical leap by me). So, three way tie on 50 (also possible with CLB/CHV/LA). 1) PPG among the three teams: (CLB/CHV/HOU): HOu beats Chivas. a) CLB (4 games, 7 points) = 1.75 b) HOU (4 games, 7 points) = 1.75 c) CHV: (4 games, 3 points) = 0.42 Crew: Hou: 1-1, 2-1 LA: 1-1, 2-0 CHV: 1-2, 2-1 CHV: Crew: 2-1, 1-2 Hou: 0-1, ?? (assuming loss) LA: 0-0, 0-1, 0-1 HOU: Crew: 1-1, 1-2 Chv: 1-0, (assume win) Chivas is eliminated, and the Crew take Houston on head to head. I'll note that Crew/Chivas/LA can also all tie on 50. LA wins out, Chivas win 2/3. In that scenario: Crew: 7 points from 4 = 1.75 LA: 8 points from 5 games = 1.6 Chivas: 4 from 5 games = 0.8 LA: Crew: 1-1, 1-2 Chv: 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 Crew win on PPG. ----------------------------------------------------- Any way you slice it (in my opinion), the Crew win the Shield tops in a 3 way tie on 50 points. The only way they don't win it is if Chivas beat them outright on points, or if they lose the last two and LA/Houston win out.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I didn't actually look those numbers up. I just assumed the GD numbers ThreeApples talked about were league-wide. Sorry for the confusion. We meant to say the same thing.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Well, it would all be a lot easier if MLS would actually write down what the rules are clearly on their website. But is hasn't happened yet, so....
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation In the scenario I posed, Houston most likely will have a better GD than Columbus. Columbus is currently +12. If they tie one and lose one, they will be at best +11. Houston is currently +9. If they win their last two, they will be at worst +11. So Columbus cannot beat Houston on GD (in this specific scenario), but they could be equal and be ahead of Houston on total goals. If either of Houston's wins, or Columbus' loss is by 2 or more goals, then Houston would be ahead on GD. I think this all doesn't matter and the tiebreaker should revert to 2-team head-to-head after Chivas USA is the clear loser of the 3-way tiebreaker, but there's nothing in the posted rules that says I'm definitely correct on this. Fortunately the Earthquakes will beat Chivas USA this Saturday and eliminate any possibility of this controversy.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I actually don't think there's any textual basis for your interpretation. There is textual reason to think TrueCrew's reading is the right one -- not only in rules 1 and 2, but also it's very clearly stated in rule 8 and the "note" which explicitly and exclusively talks about teams "advancing". That said, if it were up to me it'd go head-to-head, then head-to-head goal differential, then head-to-head total goals ... etc. Lay off the hard cider, Mr. Apples.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Perfect timing to stumble across this debate. I was doodling around today computing the Crew's chances based on all of their possible results and came across the exact same 3-way scenario between CLB-CHV-HOU. A single multi-goal win for Houston or multi-goal loss for Columbus would give the Shield to Houston under this specific scenario. But if all three decisions are one-goal games, the teams would be level on goal differential at +11 and they would move on to goals scored, which would likely give Columbus the crown. I too was confused by the wording and got confirmation from the league office that the three-way tiebreaker stays in effect until one team is ADVANCED. The fact that Chivas is eliminated on the first step does not end the 3-way tiebreak and and launch a new two-team tiebreak. Rather, since neither Columbus nor Houston advance on the first step, they move on to the second step, which is goal differential. And so on and so on until one of them is the winner of the three-way tiebreaker. So to summarize.... Team A ------- Team B Team C ....means the 3-way tiebreak is over and Team B and Team C are subject to a 2-team tiebreaker, if one is required. However.... Team A / Team B (equal) ----------------------- Team C (inferior) ........does NOT end the 3-way tie break since no team advanced as the winner. Rather, the two remaining teams move on to the next steps in the 3-team tiebreaker, as needed, in order to produce a winner of the 3-team tiebreaker. Hopefully that clears things up.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Housekeeping In addition to PTS and then fewest games played, the table is now also sorted by MLS tie-breakers. Hence LAG over HOU (with one game to play), Seattle over Chicago (on goal differential), and FCD, followed by DCU and then TFC (also on goal differential). In Brief Only one game played, so no real changes other than RSL jumping over FCD, DCU and TFC. What you have to understand about RSL is this: RSL has the same home record as HOU. The only teams with stronger home records than RSL are CDC and CMB. Playing at home, RSL is a powerhouse team. And they’ve now ridden that home record to the brink of playoff qualification by beating NYR for the first time in team history. This weekend RSL plays TFC on the road and then next weekend they’re home to COL. Given their home record, if they can just beat TFC this weekend, they’ll be very strongly positioned to make the playoffs. The 43 points they can get should be plenty. As noted before, KCW is alive only because they hold the 38 point tie-breaker against NER. Hence the “*”. Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG MPP M# T# SSE#[/u] [COLOR="DarkBlue"]01 CMB 28 2 13 10 05 49 1.75 55 -- -- 07 02 CDC 27 3 13 05 09 44 1.63 53 -- -- 05 03 LAG 28 2 11 11 06 44 1.57 50 -- -- 02 04 HOU 28 2 12 08 08 44 1.57 50 -- -- 02[/COLOR] 05 SEA 28 2 10 11 07 41 1.46 47 03 10 -- 06 CHI 28 2 10 11 07 41 1.46 47 03 10 -- 07 COL 28 2 10 10 08 40 1.43 46 04 09 -- 08 NER 28 2 10 08 10 38 1.36 44 06 07 -- ---------------------------------------------------- 09 RSL 28 2 10 07 11 37 1.32 43 07 06 -- 10 FCD 28 2 10 06 12 36 1.29 42 08 05 -- 11 DCU 28 2 08 12 08 36 1.29 42 08 05 -- 12 TFC 28 2 09 09 10 36 1.29 42 08 05 -- 13 KCW 28 2 08 08 12 32 1.14 38 12 01* -- [COLOR="SlateGray"]14 SJE 28 2 07 08 13 29 1.04 35 -- -- -- 15 NYR 29 1 04 06 19 18 0.62 21 -- -- --[/COLOR] GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP, then MLS tie-breakers. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B] Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 CMB 28 49 14 14 9 4 1 4 6 4 -07 02 CDC 27 44 13 14 9 2 2 4 3 7 -09 03 HOU 28 44 14 14 8 5 1 4 3 7 -12 04 LAG 28 44 14 14 6 4 4 5 7 2 -12 05 SEA 28 41 14 14 6 6 2 4 5 5 -15 06 CHI 28 41 14 14 4 6 4 6 5 3 -15 07 COL 28 40 15 13 8 5 2 2 5 6 -18 08 NER 28 38 14 14 7 3 4 3 5 6 -18 09 RSL 28 37 14 14 8 5 1 2 2 10 -19 10 TFC 28 36 14 14 7 4 3 2 5 7 -20 11 FCD 28 36 14 14 7 4 3 3 2 9 -20 12 DCU 28 36 14 14 6 5 3 2 7 5 -20 13 KCW 28 32 13 15 4 4 5 4 4 7 -22 14 SJE 28 29 15 13 6 4 5 1 4 8 -29 15 NYR 29 18 14 15 4 4 6 0 2 13 -39 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B] Code: [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U] [U] HG HPPG[/U] [U] AG APPG[/U] 01 CDC 13 2.23 01 CHI 14 1.64 02 CMB 14 2.21 02 LAG 14 1.57 03 HOU 14 2.07 03 CMB 14 1.29 04 RSL 14 2.07 04 SEA 14 1.21 05 COL 15 1.93 05 CDC 14 1.07 06 TFC 14 1.79 06 HOU 14 1.07 07 FCD 14 1.79 07 KCW 15 1.07 08 SEA 14 1.71 08 NER 14 1.00 09 NER 14 1.71 09 DCU 14 0.93 10 DCU 14 1.64 10 COL 13 0.85 11 LAG 14 1.57 11 TFC 14 0.79 12 SJE 15 1.47 12 FCD 14 0.79 13 CHI 14 1.29 13 RSL 14 0.57 14 KCW 13 1.23 14 SJE 13 0.54 15 NYR 14 1.14 15 NYR 15 0.13[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] [U]TEAM WK31 WK32[/U] CDC: SJE @CHI HOU CHI: @NER CDC CMB: @DCU NER COL: @FCD @RSL DCU: CMB @KCW FCD: COL @SEA HOU: LAG @CDC KCW: SEA DCU LAG: @HOU SJE NER: CHI @CMB NYR: ---- TFC RSL: @TFC COL SEA: @KCW FCD SJE: @CDC @LAG TFC: RSL @NYR[/B]
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation on the current tie for 10th, if you're applying MLS tiebreakers, wouldn't you advance FCD on GD, then apply tiebreakers again for TFC and DCU, and TFC has head-to-head on DCU?
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation You might want to look at FSL's home record against Colorado historically before making that statement. Besides the rivalry nature of the game, Colorado is the one team that isn't at an altitude disadvantage in Sandy. Earlier this year at RTS the Rapids got a 1-1 draw off a late Cummings goal and were missing Casey who was in South Africa with the Nats.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Asked this on the Sounders board, but figured I'd ask it again to get a wider population's thoughts. With RSL being one point behind NER, FCD holding the tie breaker (I think) over DCU and TFC, and NER having a home against Chicago, and an away against Columbus, it seems that there is a good chance the West will have all four of the wild cards. Anyone know how the seeding will work out? Will the third and fourth ranked teams in the West stay in the West with fifth and sixth ranked teams going into the East? Or will three and five stay in the West and four and six go into the East? Or some other breakdown?
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Teams #5 and #6 from the west would play in the eastern conference bracket. "If more than four teams qualify from one conference, the team finishing lower than fourth in its conference will shift over to the other conference bracket." 2009 Rules of Competition
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Because of last night's result, the Revs cannot clinch or be eliminated this week.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Shoot. That was dumb. Credit my brain not working correctly last night. Here's a corrected table. Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG MPP M# T# SSE#[/u] [COLOR="DarkBlue"]01 CMB 28 2 13 10 05 49 1.75 55 -- -- 07 02 CDC 27 3 13 05 09 44 1.63 53 -- -- 05 03 LAG 28 2 11 11 06 44 1.57 50 -- -- 02 04 HOU 28 2 12 08 08 44 1.57 50 -- -- 02[/COLOR] 05 SEA 28 2 10 11 07 41 1.46 47 03 10 -- 06 CHI 28 2 10 11 07 41 1.46 47 03 10 -- 07 COL 28 2 10 10 08 40 1.43 46 04 09 -- 08 NER 28 2 10 08 10 38 1.36 44 06 07 -- ---------------------------------------------------- 09 RSL 28 2 10 07 11 37 1.32 43 07 06 -- 10 FCD 28 2 10 06 12 36 1.29 42 08 05 -- 11 TFC 28 2 09 09 10 36 1.29 42 08 05 -- 12 DCU 28 2 08 12 08 36 1.29 42 08 05 -- 13 KCW 28 2 08 08 12 32 1.14 38 12 01* -- [COLOR="SlateGray"]14 SJE 28 2 07 08 13 29 1.04 35 -- -- -- 15 NYR 29 1 04 06 19 18 0.62 21 -- -- --[/COLOR] GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP, then MLS tie-breakers. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B] OK. RSL vs Colorado Overall: 5W-4D-9L RSL vs Colorado at Home: 3W-2D-3L But I don't know home much you can take from that record since all those home losses to Colorado date from the Ellinger era. Under Ellinger: RSL vs Colorado Overall: 2W-2D-7L RSL vs Colorado at Home: 1W-3D-1L Under Kreis: RSL vs Colorado Overall: 3W-2D-2L RSL vs Colorado at Home: 2W-1D-0L Since Kreis took over, RSL is unbeaten at home against Colorado.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation MLS should dumb this conference crap and just seed the teams 1-8. With all this whining about how to reward teams for regular season performance, how about assuring the team that finishes first that they'll get #8 in the playoffs, and not #7, #6 (like the Crew did last year), or gasp, #5 like is possible this year? It's simply atrocious. Chicago could have the 8th best record, and get the 6th seed. Or 7th and get the 6th. This would guarantee lower seeded team in the semifinals. It's just dumb. This increases the chances of a lower seed making to MLS Cup, qualifying for CCL, etc. Does anyone want NYRB representing MLS again anytime soon? And New England just did wonders (though they did have better records) as the Cup finalist.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Typical MLS, so you eliminate the third team, but then proceed on with a three-way tiebreker with only two teams. MLS is Constanza. Whatever makes sense, do the opposite. I'm surprised Team C can't somehow still win it on GD. I mean, two teams have been advanced, two teams are tied, shouldn't they use the two team tie-breaker at that point? Nah.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Ah, but if we're going to do that I'll point out that those road losses to FSL date to the Clavijo era. Under Smith: Colorado vs FSL Overall: 1W-2D-0L Colorado vs. FSL on the road: 0W-1D-0L Since Smith took over, Colorado is unbeaten on the road against FSL. General point is that because of the nature of the rivalry game and the fact that FSL doesn't gain an altitude advantage at home against Colorado their home advantage is somewhat lessened and it shouldn't be much of a surprise if they draw or lose to Colorado in that game. I wouldn't be shocked if they won either, but last night was clearly the easiest of their remaining 3 games. 40 isn't a safe bet for them, much less 43.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I enjoy the parity of MLS. DCU and TFC are both still in the running to grab the second place spot in the East. The fact that 42 points might be enough to claim second place in the East is pretty bad (given that 4 or5 teams might finish above that point total in the West). That may say something to MLS about their conference tables, or it may not, and the concerns for geography might always live on (in terms of post-season placement.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Well, sure. And Colorado gaining even a single point out of their last two game isn't a safe bet either. Still, it is fair to point out that RSL has been very strong at home and that nobody should minimize the possibility that they win their last two games.