[R] The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation [R]

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

In Brief​

• There ain't no way for San Jose,
  Dreams turned into dust and blew away.
• With the Dallas win, this weekend's Columbus at New England games is still shaping
  up to be massive. And not just because Columbus is participating. Columbus wins, it's
  a brawl for the 8th spot. New England wins, it's a big battle for the Supporter's Shield.
  If the game ends in a draw, then all hell breaks loose.

Notes​

• If you can't figure out one of the blanks ("--") then check the old updates for explanations.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  27  3  12  10  05  46  1.70  51  55  --  --  10
02  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  47  50  --  --  05
03  HOU  28  2  12  08  08  44  1.57  47  50  --  --  05[/COLOR]
04  CDC  26  4  12  05  09  41  1.58  47  53  04  16  08
05  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
06  SEA  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
07  COL  28  2  10  10  08  40  1.43  43  46  05  09  --
08  NER  27  3  10  08  09  38  1.41  42  47  07  10  02
----------------------------------------------------------
09  DCU  28  2  08  12  08  36  1.29  39  42  09  05  --
10  FCD  28  2  10  06  12  36  1.29  39  42  09  05  --
11  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  10  07  --
12  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  11  06  --
13  KCW  27  3  08  08  11  32  1.19  36  41  13  04  --
[COLOR="SlateGray"]14  SJE  27  3  07  07  13  28  1.04  31  37  --  --  --
15  NYR  28  2  04  06  18  18  0.64  19  24  --  --  --[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  CDC  26  41  12  14  8  2  2  4  3  7  -09
02  CMB  27  46  14  13  9  4  1  3  6  4  -09
03  HOU  28  44  14  14  8  5  1  4  3  7  -12
04  LAG  28  44  14  14  6  4  4  5  7  2  -12
05  NER  27  38  13  14  7  3  3  3  5  6  -15
06  CHI  28  41  14  14  4  6  4  6  5  3  -15
07  SEA  28  41  14  14  6  6  2  4  5  5  -15
08  TFC  27  35  13  14  7  3  3  2  5  7  -18
09  COL  28  40  15  13  8  5  2  2  5  6  -18
10  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
11  DCU  28  36  14  14  6  5  3  2  7  5  -20
12  FCD  28  36  14  14  7  4  3  3  2  9  -20
13  KCW  27  32  13  14  4  4  5  4  4  6  -21
14  SJE  27  28  15  12  6  4  5  1  3  8  -29
15  NYR  28  18  14  14  4  4  6  0  2  12 -38

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]TEAM   WK30   WK31   WK32[/U]
CDC:   KCW    SJE    @CHI
       ----   ----   HOU
CHI:   ----   @NER   CDC
CMB:   @NER   @DCU   NER
COL:   ----   @FCD   @RSL
DCU:   ----   CMB    @KCW
FCD:   ----   COL    @SEA
HOU:   ----   LAG    @CDC
KCW:   @CDC   SEA    DCU
LAG:   ----   @HOU   SJE
NER:   CMB    CHI    @CMB
NYR:   ----   @RSL   TFC
RSL:   ----   NYR    COL
       ----   @TFC   ----
SEA:   ----   @KCW   FCD
SJE:   @TOR   @CDC   @LAG
TFC:   SJE    RSL    @NYR
[/B]

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

FCD maxes out at 42 points. That's 8th place (perhaps 7th if the results go just right).

Thing is, if FCD is in the running, then I think ironically their biggest threat is actually DC United. DC United wins the 42 point tie-breaker with FC Dallas.

Look at the schedules. DCU plays at home against Columbus and away against KC. Is DCU going to drop 4 straight home games? Well, if they do Soehn better be tarred and feathered and unceremoniously immediately dumped into the Anacostia .

DC United currently is on a 3 home game losing streak. That happened only once before in DC United's history, in 2000 (4/22-5/13) during Rongen's last year coaching.

If you look at winless home streaks, then you find one 3 home game winless streak in 2000 (6/28-8/13) under Rongen. Then you've got some stats that are so bad under Hudson even I, whose Hudson hatred took a backseat to nobody back in the day, was shocked: a 4 home game winless streak in 2001, a 3 home game winless streak in 2002, and then in 2003 two 3 game home winless streaks and one 4 home game winless streak!

That's it for dreadful home game stands.

Which brings us to 2009. If DC United loses to Columbus next weekend it will be beyond all precedent. DC United has only once come close to a four home game losing streak and that was back in ancient times. Even four game winless streaks are exceedingly rare: there are only two and those were back in ancient times as well.

Now I'm not saying that DC United is going to beat Columbus because of the law of averages. I'm only saying that a four game home losing streak is unprecedented territory for DC United and four game home winless streaks are at the very periphery of known territory.

So let's entertain the not-so-outlandish possibility that DC United beats Columbus and that FCD continues its winning ways. Then we'd go into the final weekend with FCD playing Seattle (a team that will probably need or want some points out of that match) and DC United playing KCW (a team that will very likely be eliminated before their final match).

If it's a race to 42, then who would you put your money on under those circumstances? FCD or DCU? I think it would be a tough call. And even if both DCU and FCD won, it's actually DCU that would come out on top because of the tie-breaker.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Fair enough. And I'm on record elsewhere wondering whether things will only get worse for DCU -- i.e. that the team could implode or meltdown on the field. (I actually sort of expect this.) So it would not surprise me personally if they lost 4 home games in a row. And all things being equal, the safe money is on Columbus next weekend. But I also know the history and the numbers and I realize that dropping 4 home games in a row like is expected just doesn't happen all that often. So that gives me rightful pause.

Point is, if you are going to entertain FCD making the playoffs, then you have to talk about DC United in the same breath. Or perhaps FCD's chances are overblown, much like DC United's.

Oh, I think the burn time of a Saturn-V rocket is something on the order of 15 minutes. When is FCD's 15 minutes up?

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

PPG 3/21-9/5 :: 1.0
PPG 9/12-10/7 :: 2.4 (this is the FCD winning streak, except the KC game)

PPG March-August :: 1.0
PPG September-October :: 2.17

So the PPG has more than doubled.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Now, don't get me wrong here. When I finished that long post I almost tagged a little disclaimer on it that would have read something like this: Did I of all people just write a post touting DC United's chances of making the playoffs!?! Maybe I did, but that wasn't really the point. I realize how unlikely it is for DC to make the playoffs. I've known that for - well - since September 13 when I started this thread. My point was only that: if you're talking about FCD making the playoffs, then you have to talk about DCU making the playoffs. That's not because both probabilities are in the same order of strength, but because both probabilities are in the same order of weakness. Like I said, I think this talk of FCD making the playoffs is overblown. They might make it in, especially if New England falters. But if FCD can make it in then so can a couple other teams.

Regarding your second point, that's not what I really said -- and it's certainly not what I think. I fully expect DC United to fall to Columbus next weekend. So I fully expect DC United to lose 4 home games in a row. But like I already said, I also know that 4 home game losing streaks are uncommon and that 4 game winless streaks are only somewhat more common. That means I have to admit that my expectations may be proven wrong. The point was not as you seem to have read it that it is outlandish to think that DC United will lose the game, but the opposite: it is not outlandish to think that DC United could win the game.

Anyway, all this will be a lot easier to consider once the Columbus @ New England and San Jose @ Toronto results are known. Toronto can still top both FCD and DCU.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Housekeeping​

• I dropped the projected column because it’s pretty much moot at this point.
• In the third box below I added in the home and away PPG because that actually is pertinent.

In Brief​

• CDC has clinched. Perhaps they aren’t in “prime” position to vie for the Shield, but they are in prime position for the Western Conference title and they’re still in good position for the Shield. CDC’s schedule is quite favorable: home to SJE, away to CHI, and home to HOU. CDC is, by a hair (indeed, almost by an averaging artifact), actually the strongest home team in the league (HPPG 2.23). CHI is the third worst home team in the league (HPPG 1.3). Add in that CDC is strong on the road (5th best) and it’s clear that 9 points in CDC’s final three matches is not out of the realm of possibility. The big question is the HOU game.
• Regarding the 8th place spot, all hell has broken loose with NER’s loss.
• KCW is hanging on by a thread. The only reason they were not eliminated with the loss is because they hold the 38 point tie-breaker against NER.
• RSL has returned from the dead. RSL (MPP: 43) is the only team left that can surpass DCU, FCD and TFC even if those three teams max out at 42 points each. Two additional notes: If you look at the HPPG table you’ll notice that RSL is very strong at home. They only trail CDC, CMB and HOU. RSL has two home games left (against NYR and COL). Their final away game is against a weak TFC.
• Vultures have been spotted circling NER and TFC. Neither team seems capable any longer of winning a game.
• Given the results, I’m thinking the practical cut-off for the playoffs has dropped to maybe 41 points. Might even go to 40.
• The runner-up for biggest winner this week was DCU. And they didn’t even play a game. That DCU did well this week and yet did not play is perhaps more telling than ironic.
• The big winner this week was FCD. But as noted in the very extensive discussion of tie-breakers earlier in this thread, DCU actually holds the tie-breaker over FCD, and as noted above RSL can still surpass them. Oh, who am I kidding? In reality what matters is that RSL can still surpass them.
• There’s a bunch more stuff that could be noted on the table, but that’s all I've got for now.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  28  2  13  10  05  49  1.75  55  --  --  07
02  CDC  27  3  13  05  09  44  1.63  53  --  --  05
03  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  50  --  --  02
04  HOU  28  2  12  08  08  44  1.57  50  --  --  02[/COLOR]
05  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  47  03  10  --
06  SEA  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  47  03  10  --
07  COL  28  2  10  10  08  40  1.43  46  04  09  --
08  NER  28  2  10  08  10  38  1.36  44  06  07  --
----------------------------------------------------------
09  DCU  28  2  08  12  08  36  1.29  42  08  05  --
10  FCD  28  2  10  06  12  36  1.29  42  08  05  --
11  TFC  28  2  09  09  10  36  1.29  42  08  05  --
12  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  43  10  06  --
13  KCW  28  2  08  08  12  32  1.14  38  12  01* --
[COLOR="SlateGray"]14  SJE  28  2  07  08  13  29  1.04  35  --  --  --
15  NYR  28  2  04  06  18  18  0.64  24  --  --  --[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  CMB  28  49  14  14  9  4  1  4  6  4  -07
02  CDC  27  44  13  14  9  2  2  4  3  7  -09
03  HOU  28  44  14  14  8  5  1  4  3  7  -12
04  LAG  28  44  14  14  6  4  4  5  7  2  -12
05  SEA  28  41  14  14  6  6  2  4  5  5  -15
06  CHI  28  41  14  14  4  6  4  6  5  3  -15
07  COL  28  40  15  13  8  5  2  2  5  6  -18
08  NER  28  38  14  14  7  3  4  3  5  6  -18
09  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
10  TFC  28  36  14  14  7  4  3  2  5  7  -20
11  FCD  28  36  14  14  7  4  3  3  2  9  -20
12  DCU  28  36  14  14  6  5  3  2  7  5  -20
13  KCW  28  32  13  15  4  4  5  4  4  7  -22
14  SJE  28  29  15  13  6  4  5  1  4  8  -29
15  NYR  28  18  14  14  4  4  6  0  2  12 -38

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]         HG  HPPG              AG  APPG[/U]
01  CDC  13  2.23     01  CHI  14  1.6
02  CMB  14  2.21     02  LAG  14  1.6
03  HOU  14  2.1      03  CMB  14  1.3
04  RSL  13  2.0      04  SEA  14  1.2
05  COL  15  1.9      05  CDC  14  1.1
06  TFC  14  1.8      06  HOU  14  1.1
07  FCD  14  1.8      07  KCW  15  1.1
08  SEA  14  1.7      08  NER  14  1.0
09  NER  14  1.7      09  DCU  14  0.9
10  DCU  14  1.6      10  COL  13  0.8
11  LAG  14  1.6      11  TFC  14  0.8
12  SJE  15  1.5      12  FCD  14  0.8
13  CHI  14  1.3      13  RSL  14  0.6
14  KCW  13  1.2      14  SJE  13  0.5
15  NYR  14  1.1      15  NYR  14  0.1[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]TEAM  WK31  WK32[/U]
    
CDC:  SJE   @CHI
     ----   HOU
CHI:  @NER  CDC
CMB:  @DCU  NER
COL:  @FCD  @RSL
DCU:  CMB   @KCW
FCD:  COL   @SEA
HOU:  LAG   @CDC
KCW:  SEA   DCU
LAG:  @HOU  SJE
NER:  CHI   @CMB
NYR:  @RSL  TFC
RSL:  NYR   COL
      @TFC  ----
SEA:  @KCW  FCD
SJE:  @CDC  @LAG
TFC:  RSL   @NYR[/B]

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

I have to look more closely at this later, because I very well might be wrong ...

Stipulate the following:

- NER beats CHI next weekend leaving both teams at 41.
- NER and CHI lose their final matches, so they both end the season at 41.
- TFC and DCU fail to win out, so both end the season with no more than 40 points.

Given that, and looking at the remaining schedule, I think if things go just right that the second place Eastern Conference team could actually drop to 9th place in the overall table (behind CMB and all the Western Conference teams except San Jose).

Even if the second place Eastern Conference team just drops to 8th (I think this is possible) that means all the other tie-breaking scenarios for the 8th place spot are moot: the second place Eastern Conference team just gets in.

The Colorado games might make this all impossible, so you'd have to look closely game by game to verify this, but talk about some bizarre possibilities!