Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation You mean like the BPL in April sometimes when some teams have played more FA Cup matches? Lower leagues can get even worse. Lighten up, Francis...
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Because until probably is "clinched playoffs" I'll be on pins and needles.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation what do you mean? isn't FA Cup a knock out tournament? either you are in or out.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I think Man U had 3 games in hand for a while last year. When teams keep advancing in all competitions, they start rescheduling league games, which means they've played less than many other teams in the league.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation This is purely anecdotal, so it's not what you wanted, but I had the 2007 numbers right here already, so ... Code: [B][u][SIZE="4"]2007[/SIZE][/u] - Projected vs Actual GP W L D PTS PPG PRJ ACT DIF DCU 25 15 06 04 49 1.96 59 55 +7% NER 25 13 06 06 45 1.80 54 50 +8% CDC 23 13 06 04 43 1.87 56 53 +6% HOU 25 12 07 06 42 1.68 50 52 -3% FCD 24 12 09 03 39 1.63 49 44 +11% NYR 25 11 10 04 37 1.48 44 43 +3% KCW 25 10 09 06 36 1.44 43 40 +8% CHI 24 08 10 06 30 1.25 38 40 -6% CMB 25 06 09 10 28 1.12 34 37 -9% COL 24 07 10 07 28 1.17 35 35 0% TFC 24 05 13 06 21 0.88 26 25 +5% RSL 24 04 13 07 19 0.79 24 27 -12% LAG 21 04 12 05 17 0.81 24 34 -29% Average Diff: -1% Average Diff (without LA): +1.5% ACT = Actual final points[/B] With each passing game you would expect the difference to diminish as the projection trended toward the actual. Like I said, it's purely anecdotal so for all I know it's a fluke. But I was actually surprised by that average difference. But it's obviously still pretty unreliable in any individual case even in this single instance.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Knave, good work here. But I wanted to say that the MN (and tragic, I'd expect) are all off because the teams aren't ranked correctly. The table should be ranked in terms of points possible (not current) points for clinching scenarios. It doesn't matter what they have now, only what they can have at the end. NE being the problem: only 5 teams can hit 54+, so a team doesn't need 55 to clinch, they only need 50, as only 8 teams can max out above 50. For instance, the Crew's MN is 8 (49-42+1) not 13 (54-42+1). Peace.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Yes, I saw your earlier comment about the mis-ranking. Didn't show up as an issue last time I did this, but as you note New England is throwing things off this time. The magic number should be calculated on the basis of the 9th highest max points potential. I already fixed it in my spreadsheet. So the next update ... But isn't the 9th highest MPP RSL's 51. So the Crew's M# is actually 10. No? The tragic number is unaffected because that is based on actual current points.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Cool. I have RSL at 49 max: 34 current + 15 points possible = 49. They are 9-9-7 for 25 GP. Same as TFC, and one better than DC.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Found it. I was missing a draw for RSL. In fact, I'm thinking I must have originally omitted the entire RSL-Chicago game. Someone pointed out the Chicago error, which I fixed. Should have checked the RSL numbers before assuming the Chicago error was just typo. Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP M# T# SSE#[/u] 01 CMB 24 6 11 09 04 42 1.75 53 60 08 25 19 02 HOU 26 4 11 07 08 40 1.54 46 52 10 17 11 03 CHI 25 5 10 09 06 39 1.56 47 54 11 19 13 04 LAG 25 5 09 11 05 38 1.52 46 53 12 18 12 05 SEA 25 5 09 10 06 37 1.48 44 52 13 17 11 06 CDC 23 7 11 03 09 36 1.57 47 57 14 22 16 07 COL 24 6 10 06 08 36 1.50 45 54 14 19 13 08 DCU 26 4 08 12 06 36 1.38 42 48 14 13 07 ---------------------------------------------------------- 09 RSL 25 5 09 07 09 34 1.36 41 49 16 14 08 10 TFC 25 5 09 07 09 34 1.36 41 49 16 14 08 11 NER 23 7 09 06 08 33 1.43 43 54 17 19 13 12 KCW 24 6 07 06 11 27 1.13 34 45 23 10 04 13 FCD 24 6 07 06 11 27 1.13 34 45 23 10 04 14 SJE 22 8 05 05 12 20 0.91 27 44 30 09 03 [COLOR="SlateGray"]15 NYR 25 5 04 04 17 16 0.64 19 31 34 -04 -10[/COLOR] GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG) MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 - Sorted by PTS, then PPG. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B] Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] CMB 24 8 4 0 3 5 4 -06 CDC 23 8 1 2 3 2 7 -09 CHI 25 4 4 4 6 5 2 -10 HOU 26 7 4 1 4 3 7 -10 LAG 25 4 4 4 5 7 1 -11 NER 23 6 3 3 3 3 5 -14 COL 24 8 3 2 2 3 6 -14 SEA 25 6 5 2 3 5 4 -14 DCU 26 6 5 1 2 7 5 -14 TFC 25 7 3 3 2 4 6 -17 RSL 25 7 5 1 2 2 8 -17 KCW 24 3 3 5 4 3 6 -19 FDC 24 5 4 3 2 2 8 -21 SJE 22 5 3 4 0 2 8 -26 NYR 25 4 3 6 0 1 11 -35 Sorted by PCE, then least GP.[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] CDC: @SEA, NYR, @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU CHI: CMB, TFC, @LAG, @NER, CDC CMB: @CHI, LAG, SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER COL: @SJE, SJE, @KCW, NER, @FCD, @RSL DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW FCD: @KCW, RSL, NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA HOU: RSL, KCW, LAG, @CDC KCW: FCD, COL, @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU LAG: TFC, @CMB, CHI, @HOU, SJE NER: @NYR, SEA, @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB NYR: NER, @CDC, @SJE, @RSL, TFC RSL: @HOU, @FCD, NYR, @TFC, COL SEA: CDC, @NER, @CMB, @KCW, FCD TFC: @LAG, @CHI, SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B] As always, please point any errors.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation +1 on to the OP...Thanks! I really like that there looks to be some tasty matches on the fiinal week of play. Teams with nothing to play for that will have a legitimate chance of ruining it for someone else. There may be three or four of these match-ups as none of the current bottom-table teams play each other. KC, Hoops, Bulls and SJ all play teams who will likely be fighting for a final spot. Not to say KCW and FCD are out yet, but it's looking more and more likely. The SJ vs. LAG is unlikely to be important, though who knows after last weeks humiliation at the hands of Dallas. If that wasn't an anomaly this could prove an incredibly interesting match. You know SJ would consider the season salvaged if they bumped LAG from the playoffs
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Man, Knave, nice work here, but who cares about all these stats? 2009 is over. People who are stuck in the 2000s are just sad. The 2010s are upon us: get ready or get out. RBNY/Cosmos/Metro: a club of the future. 2009: a year of the past.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Tragic Numbers
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Could be worse! What are you talking about? You've got lots to look forward to this year! Heck, the MetroRedBullRotMasterStars could clinch this weekend. And by clinch I mean last place.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation 20 days since our last league match, in the middle of a season, any time during the season, equals an absurd amount of time between games.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Geez, where do I start. Actually, 2010 is still the decade of the 2000's. You see, the next decade starts with a 1. 2000 wasn't the millennium, 2001 was.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Knave, you're missing SJE's remaining schedule. SJE: COL, @COL, @DCU, NYR, FCD, @TOR, CDC, LAG
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Does anyone know the tiebreaking procedure if 3 or more teams are tied on points? I loooked a little but I can't find it.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Via MLSNet: 8) The first tiebreaker in a three-way tie is also head-to-head, but it is determined via points-per-game versus the other two teams. If two teams are tied in points-per-game head-to-head, the next tie breaker is goal difference.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Thanks. Interesting that if two teams are tied after this it goes to goal differential, rather than head-to-head between those teams, as it would if it was a a two-way tie between those teams on points.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Whoops! Thanks, I'll fix that with the next update. Looks the same as in the past, which IIRC is a bit tricky. Let's say DCU, the Revs and Toronto are tied for the last two spots at 45 points. So you set up a head to head table between all those teams and going through the tie-breakers, Toronto comes out on top with the Revs in second and DCU in third. So Toronto gets the seventh spot. But for the last spot you then have to discard the original table and set up a new table just between the Revs and DCU. It's actually quite possible that in this new head to head that DCU will top the Revs once you go through the tie-breakers, which means that DCU would get the nod even though on the three-way head to head they were the third worst team.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Half the fun is obsessing and hyperventilating with September Madness! And thanks for the work Knave. I would've given ya some rep, but "gotta spread..."
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation +1 lol! Don't take it so bad little fella. You'll be in it next year.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Things didn't change much after last night aside from RSL and Toronto blowing their advantage over DCU. So I didn't rush to do an update. But I'll post one after today's game.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Only real change that I can see is that both FC Dallas and San Jose have been mathematically eliminated from winning the Supporter's Shield. It may not have been possible anyway due to schedule, but it's now completely official. I was curious if it was possible for DC to win their remaining 4 games and still not make the playoffs due to New England having more games in hand and therefore a higher MPP. However, due to New England's two games against Columbus and one against Chicago, I couldn't work out any scenario where DC was eliminated.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation If the question last week was how screwed is DCU, the question this week is how screwed are RSL and TFC. RSL and TFC really needed wins to make a push for the 8th spot. Both lost. Now RSL and TFC have not merely lost the small game-in-hand advantage they had over DCU, but now DCU has kept its points advantage over them. DC United also needed NER to lose, but NER drew with NYR. Yes, NER could have given itself a huge boost with a win. But don’t dismiss that draw (even if it was against the lowly NYR) because with it NER maintained its -14 pace, which sounds terrible but which is actually even with DCU. NER is still very strongly in the running to take the 8th spot. Still, if there was a definite winner this week, it was DCU. DCU needed a lifeline, TFC and RSL threw one to them. The question now is whether DCU is capable of grabbing that lifeline. The SS race seems awfully close to being settled. Finally, SJE has a lot of games left (7). I'm thinking they're going to spoil somebody's playoff hopes. Will it be COL, DCU or TOR? Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP M# T# SSE#[/u] 01 CMB 25 5 11 10 04 43 1.72 52 58 06 23 16 02 HOU 27 3 12 07 08 43 1.59 48 52 06 17 10 03 LAG 26 4 10 11 05 41 1.58 47 53 08 18 11 04 CHI 26 4 10 10 06 40 1.54 46 52 09 17 10 05 SEA 26 4 09 11 06 38 1.46 44 50 11 15 08 06 CDC 24 6 11 04 09 37 1.54 46 55 12 20 13 07 COL 25 5 10 07 08 37 1.48 44 52 12 17 10 08 DCU 26 4 08 12 06 36 1.38 42 48 13 13 06 ---------------------------------------------------------- 09 NER 24 6 09 07 08 34 1.42 43 52 15 17 10 10 RSL 26 4 09 07 10 34 1.31 39 46 15 11 04 11 TFC 26 4 09 07 10 34 1.31 39 46 15 11 04 12 KCW 25 5 08 06 11 30 1.20 36 45 19 10 03 13 FCD 25 5 07 06 12 27 1.08 32 42 22 07 00 14 SJE 23 7 05 06 12 21 0.91 27 42 28 07 00 [COLOR="SlateGray"]15 NYR 26 4 04 05 17 17 0.65 20 29 32 -06 -13 [/COLOR] GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG) MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B] Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 CMB 25 43 12 13 8 4 0 3 6 4 -06 02 CDC 24 37 11 13 8 1 2 3 3 7 -09 03 HOU 27 43 13 14 8 4 1 4 3 7 -10 04 LAG 26 41 13 13 5 4 4 5 7 1 -11 05 CHI 26 40 13 13 4 5 4 6 5 2 -12 06 NER 24 34 12 12 6 3 3 3 4 5 -14 07 COL 25 37 13 12 8 3 2 2 4 6 -14 08 DCU 26 36 12 14 6 5 1 2 7 5 -14 09 SEA 26 38 14 12 6 6 2 3 5 4 -16 10 RSL 26 34 13 13 7 5 1 2 2 9 -18 11 TFC 26 34 13 13 7 3 3 2 4 7 -18 12 KCW 25 30 12 13 4 3 5 4 3 6 -19 13 FCD 25 27 12 13 5 4 3 2 2 9 -22 14 SJE 23 21 13 10 5 4 4 0 2 8 -28 15 NYR 26 17 14 12 4 4 6 0 1 11 -37 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP.[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] CDC: NYR, @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU CHI: TFC, @LAG, @NER, CDC CMB: LAG, SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER COL: SJE, @KCW, NER, @FCD, @RSL DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW FCD: RSL, NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA HOU: KCW, LAG, @CDC KCW: COL, @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU LAG: @CMB, CHI, @HOU, SJE NER: SEA, @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB NYR: @CDC, @SJE, @RSL, TFC RSL: @FCD, NYR, @TFC, COL SEA: @NER, @CMB, @KCW, FCD SJE: @COL, @DCU, NYR, FCD, @TOR, CDC, LAG TFC: @CHI, SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B] If you see any errors, please note them in this thread.