[R] The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation [R]

mbar · Oct 25, 2009

So the Galaxy get Chivas in the playoffs unless Chivas beats Houston tomorrow in which case they will play Houston.

Should Houston win or draw tomorrow, then the western conference playoffs will be:

LA (1) vs Chivas (4) and Seattle (2 or 3) vs Houston (2 or 3). Considering the dislike that Houston and Seattle have shown each other this year and the fact that LA vs Chivas is always intense, that's about a best case scenario in the West.

Calexico77 · Oct 25, 2009

mbar said: ↑

So the Galaxy get Chivas in the playoffs unless Chivas beats Houston tomorrow in which case they will play Houston.

Should Houston win or draw tomorrow, then the western conference playoffs will be:

LA (1) vs Chivas (4) and Seattle (2 or 3) vs Houston (2 or 3). Considering the dislike that Houston and Seattle have shown each other this year and the fact that LA vs Chivas is always intense, that's about a best case scenario in the West.
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Oooooooh. . . that would be so very very sweet. . .

It would also mean that the HDC would have to reopen the upper decks probably. .

Bill Archer · Oct 25, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

jamison said: ↑

I think NE knowing the score they need in advance helps them a ton.
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In fact, the "Home Field Advantage" in the MLS playoff first round essentially boils down to this.

Of course it's also about coming home to play that game, and the Revs will have to do it on the road, but the Crew is playing for exactly nothing at all today and, what with coming off of six games in 20 days (or whatever it was) it would be very surprising if Warzycha didn't sit at least half of his starters (Schelotto need the practice, ya think?)

There is of course that theory that teams normally don't want to end their season and go into the playoffs with a loss, but this is the defending champion who, if they need any confidence, can watch their Supporters Shield presentation at halftime to buck up their spirits.

Plus, and this is not a reflection on the Revs it's just a fact. NE can play pretty tough when they want. Steve Nicol teams aren't opposed to knocking you down.

Well Warzycha most likely isn't in a mood to stand there holding his breath waiting to see if this key player or that is able to stand on his own power after taking a whack.

Of course guessing what the insrcutable Bobby W is going to do has proven to be pointless, but the betting has to be on New England.

Roehl Sybing · Oct 25, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Bill Archer said: ↑

Of course it's also about coming home to play that game, and the Revs will have to do it on the road, but the Crew is playing for exactly nothing at all today
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Only if they don't care who they face in the first round. They can face Colorado (they have four points in two games against them) if they defeat and eliminate New England today. If they don't want to travel as far as Commerce City or think their chances against the Rapids aren't great, they can play a scrimmage against the Revs today and play them two more times in the playoffs.

JasonMa · Oct 25, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Roehl Sybing said: ↑

Only if they don't care who they face in the first round. They can face Colorado (they have four points in two games against them) if they defeat and eliminate New England today. If they don't want to travel as far as Commerce City or think their chances against the Rapids aren't great, they can play a scrimmage against the Revs today and play them two more times in the playoffs.
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Wrong. A win gets them Colorado, a draw or loss gets them FSL. Since FSL has already qualified as the 3rd wild-card there's no way Columbus can play an Eastern team in the 1st round. Columbus can either win and get a team on a 7-game losing streak with only 3 non-PK goals in that span or draw/lose and get a team with only 1 loss in the last 4 games.

Roehl Sybing · Oct 25, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Jasonma said: ↑

Wrong. A win gets them Colorado, a draw or loss gets them FSL.
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Sorry, one of the problems of reading a single table.

tigersoccer2005 · Oct 25, 2009

FSL?? Huh??

Yoshou · Oct 25, 2009

tigersoccer2005 said: ↑

FSL?? Huh??
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Fake Salt Lake.

tigersoccer2005 · Oct 25, 2009

i get it, a play on "Real" as opposed to "Fake"---lol, clever!! thanks!!

TrueCrew · Oct 25, 2009

As a Crew fan, I'm torn.

On the one hand, I'd much prefer to play Colorado. They are in a much worse vein of form, they have significant injuries (Clark, Smith), and we've had some success recently at the Dick.

Whereas we've been beaten soundly the last couple of times at RSL, and they have, IMHO, more skill players who can make something out of nothing (Morales, Williams, Mathis).

On the other hand, I'd prefer to rest most of our starters, we've had a tough stretch of schedule over the last two months, and we just played midweek.

The rub is, in order to get Colorado, we need to win. So resting most of our starters will likely get us RSL.

Bottom line, I say give rest to those who need it, RSL have been awful on the road.

Bill Archer · Oct 25, 2009

So, you guys would know and I'll be honest I have never spent five seconds trying to figure this stuff out because everybody else does it better BUT:

If RSL does not play us, then do they play Chicago?

MasterShake29 · Oct 25, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

jamison said: ↑

Do the Argos at least make the playoffs?
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Not even close, they got crushed by Hamilton on Friday. So FC fits right in the Toronto sports scene.

JasonMa · Oct 25, 2009

Bill Archer said: ↑

So, you guys would know and I'll be honest I have never spent five seconds trying to figure this stuff out because everybody else does it better BUT:

If RSL does not play us, then do they play Chicago?
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Correct. Its either:

Columbus - Colorado
Chicago - FSL

or

Columbus - FSL
Chicago - New England

Chef Medeski · Oct 25, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

MasterShake29 said: ↑

Not even close, they got crushed by Hamilton on Friday. So FC fits right in the Toronto sports scene.
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I love when Montreal teams are champions and Toronto teams can't make the playoffs. Makes me feel so happy.

But on topic, glad to see NER won't have a worthless game today, I don't see any reason Columbus should start their team, that would just be risking injury for nothing especially since I'm sure the ground is just as wet in Boston as here. NER should take advantage and go for the win.

Knave · Oct 25, 2009

Final Update

Housekeeping

Removed the now moot numbers, but added in two different calculations of winning percentage.

In Brief

NER clinches a playoff spot.
HOU gets second in the West, while CDC drops to fourth in the West.
CHI is the only team to end the season with a better away than home record.
RSL ends the season with the best home record in the league, and the third worst away record in the league.
CHI ends the season with the best away record in the league, and the third worst home record in the league.
Regardless of how you calculate it, a team with a losing record made the playoffs.
Depending on how you calculate it, a team with a winning record failed to make the playoffs.
The pace numbers tell a similar story as the last two items.
An expansion side ends the season 2 points behind the SS winner.

Code:

[B][U]           GP   W    D    L    PTS  PPG    %(1/2) %(1/3) CONF[/u]
[COLOR="Green"]01   CMB   30   13   10   07   49   1.63   60.0   54.4   E
02   LAG   30   12   12   06   48   1.60   60.0   53.3   W[/COLOR]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]03   HOU   30   13   09   08   48   1.60   58.3   53.3   W
04   SEA   30   12   11   07   47   1.57   58.3   52.2   W
05   CHI   30   11   12   07   45   1.50   56.7   50.0   E
06   CDC   30   13   06   11   45   1.50   53.3   50.0   W
07   NER   30   11   09   10   42   1.40   51.7   46.7   E
08   RSL   30   11   07   12   40   1.33   48.3   44.4   W[/COLOR]
----------------------------------------------------------
[COLOR="SlateGray"]09   COL   30   10   10   10   40   1.33   50.0   44.4   W
10   DCU   30   09   13   08   40   1.33   51.7   44.4   E
11   FCD   30   11   06   13   39   1.30   46.7   43.3   W
12   TFC   30   10   09   11   39   1.30   48.3   43.3   E
13   KCW   30   08   09   13   33   1.10   41.7   36.7   E
14   SJE   30   07   09   14   30   1.00   38.3   33.3   W
15   NYR   30   05   06   19   21   0.70   26.7   23.3   E[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | PPG = Points Per Game
%(1/2) = Winning Percentage, Draws = 1/2 Win
%(1/3) = Winning Percentage, Draws = 1/3 Win

- Sorted by PTS, then MLS tie-breakers. 
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]           HW  HD  HL  AW  AD  AL  PCE[/U]
01   CMB   9   4   2   4   6   5   -11
02   LAG   7   4   4   5   8   2   -12
03   HOU   8   6   1   5   3   7   -12
04   SEA   7   6   2   5   5   5   -13
05   CDC   9   3   3   4   3   8   -15
06   CHI   5   6   4   6   6   3   -15
07   NER   7   4   4   4   5   6   -18
08   COL   8   5   2   2   5   8   -20
09   DCU   7   5   3   2   8   5   -20
10   RSL   9   5   1   2   2   11  -20
11   FCD   8   4   3   3   2   10  -21
12   TFC   8   4   3   2   5   8   -21
13   KCW   4   5   6   4   4   7   -27
14   SJE   6   4   5   1   5   9   -30
15   NYR   5   4   6   0   2   13  -39

Sorted by PCE.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]           HPPG                    APPG[/U]
01   RSL   2.13         01   CHI   1.60
02   CMB   2.07         02   LAG   1.53
03   CDC   2.00         03   SEA   1.33
04   HOU   2.00         04   CMB   1.20
05   COL   1.93         05   HOU   1.20
06   FCD   1.87         06   NER   1.13
07   TFC   1.87         07   KCW   1.07
08   SEA   1.80         08   CDC   1.00
09   DCU   1.73         09   DCU   0.93
10   LAG   1.67         10   COL   0.73
11   NER   1.67         11   FCD   0.73
12   SJE   1.47         12   TFC   0.73
13   CHI   1.40         13   RSL   0.53
14   NYR   1.27         14   SJE   0.53
15   KCW   1.13         15   NYR   0.13[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Playoff Matchups[/U]

Eastern Conference:

CMB vs RSL
NER vs CHI

Western Conference:

LAG vs CDC
HOU vs SEA[/B]

Sounders78 · Oct 25, 2009

Re: Final Update

Knave said: ↑

An expansion side ends the season 2 points behind the SS winner.

Click to expand...

Had Seattle turned one of those ties into a victory, they would have ended up with the Supporter's Shield (of course, that ignores that Columbus probably would've played differently in its last game).

Green and BLue · Oct 25, 2009

Wow, 3 really great match-ups in the first round. First ever playoff Superclassico, another edition of the classic Chicago-New England playoff rivalry, and Seattle-Houston (who played two hard fought league games and an epic 120-minute US Open Cup thriller).

And then there's Columbus-FSL. Um, battle of the two smallest markets in the league. Yay?

henryo · Oct 26, 2009

Re: Final Update

Knave said: ↑

Housekeeping

Removed the now moot numbers, but added in two different calculations of winning percentage.

In Brief

NER clinches a playoff spot.

HOU gets second in the West, while CDC drops to fourth in the West.

CHI is the only team to end the season with a better away than home record.

RSL ends the season with the best home record in the league, and the third worst away record in the league.

CHI ends the season with the best away record in the league, and the third worst home record in the league.

Regardless of how you calculate it, a team with a losing record made the playoffs.

Depending on how you calculate it, a team with a winning record failed to make the playoffs.

The pace numbers tell a similar story as the last two items.

An expansion side ends the season 2 points behind the SS winner.

Click to expand...

Nice stuffs!! Just a few more points to add-on:

The team (DAL) that scored the most goals (50) failed to make the playoffs.

In last season, LAG suffered the same fate as well.

The team (DCU) that scored the 2nd most goals (43, tied with RSL, who narrowly qualified) also failed to make the playoffs.

In last season, DAL missed the playoffs having scored the 3rd-most goals among all teams.

In contrast, a team (NER) that scored the 2nd-fewest goals (33: tied with KCW, only better than NYRB) made the playoffs.

In last season, KCW made the playoffs having scored the 3rd-fewest goals.

NER is also the only team to make the playoffs with a -ive goal difference this season.

2008 saw a record number of 4 teams (that's 50% of the 8 slots!!) with -ive GD made the playoffs.

In this season, COL & DAL have joined a "select" group of teams who have missed the playoffs despite a +ive GD.

'08 DAL & '05 KCW are the only other "distinguished" members of this group. (as the league expands & playoffs getting harder to reach, expect this trend to become a norm in the future seasons though...)

Mr. Bandwagon · Oct 26, 2009

Green and BLue said: ↑

Wow, 3 really great match-ups in the first round. First ever playoff Superclassico, another edition of the classic Chicago-New England playoff rivalry, and Seattle-Houston (who played two hard fought league games and an epic 120-minute US Open Cup thriller).

And then there's Columbus-FSL. Um, battle of the two smallest markets in the league. Yay?
Click to expand...

Can't you just be happy that you made the playoffs? I mean, I'm sure Columbus and Salt Lake City fans are crying huge crocodile tears for you that you have to suffer with one of the play-off match-ups not being completely to your taste.

Flyer Fan · Oct 26, 2009

Re: Final Update

Sounders78 said: ↑

Had Seattle turned one of those ties into a victory, they would have ended up with the Supporter's Shield (of course, that ignores that Columbus probably would've played differently in its last game).
Click to expand...

People can play that game all day, though. Had Columbus not started 0-2-5...

Bill Archer · Oct 26, 2009

Mr. Bandwagon said: ↑

Can't you just be happy that you made the playoffs? I mean, I'm sure Columbus and Salt Lake City fans are crying huge crocodile tears for you that you have to suffer with one of the play-off match-ups not being completely to your taste.
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Or, conversely, people in Columbus and Salt Lake could be laughing at ignorant shitheads who are wanking on about "market size" ten years after we fired Doug Logan, the King of the Big Media Market Strategy who almost singlehandedly shut down the league and Don Garber proved that it was almost entirely irrelevant.

I don't mind that Seattle people are full of shit. I just wish they'd stop trying to get us to buy into concepts we all learned were crap by 1999.

Seattle: "We've been in the league since April, and we have no Earthly clue what the deal is, but we know tons more about MLS than you do"

Dale Carnegie missed a city.

Seattle fans should just shut the ******** up, enjoy their team and leave the heavy thinking to people who are better equipped to handle it.

ElJefe · Oct 26, 2009

Bill Archer said: ↑

Or, conversely, people in Columbus and Salt Lake could be saying "Blow me" to ignorant shitheads who are still wanking on about "market size" ten years after we fired Doug Logan and Don Garber proved that it was largely irrelevant.
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The real punchline is that it came from someone in the smallest Nielsen market in the playoffs outside of Columbus and Salt Lake:

In:
2. Los Angeles (2x)
3. Chicago
7. Boston (Manchester)
10. Houston
14. Seattle-Tacoma
32. Columbus, OH
33. Salt Lake City

Out:
1. New York
5. Dallas-Ft. Worth
6. San Francisco-Oak-San Jose
9. Washington, DC (Hagerstown)
18. Denver
31. Kansas City

In other words, Seattle is just another pissant small market to someone else.

ArsenalMetro · Oct 26, 2009

...Wow, seriously everybody? The guy pointed out that Columbus-RSL is a matchup with two small-market teams, hoping that you would be able to figure out that the matchup has very little intrigue when compared to the other first round matches. Talk about an overreaction, my god.

Seattle fans should just shut the ******** up, enjoy their team and leave the heavy thinking to people who are better equipped to handle it.
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Get off your high horse.

Yoshou · Oct 26, 2009

ArsenalMetro said: ↑

Get off your high horse.
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Please, Archer has his high horse surgically attached.

scott47a · Oct 26, 2009

Bill Archer said: ↑

Seattle fans should just shut the ******** up, enjoy their team and leave the heavy thinking to people who are better equipped to handle it.
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I actually don't mind this line -- I mean there are a lot of Seattle fans that don't know a lot about the league yet. Not all of us, but many.

The sad point here though is that Archer self-identifies as a person "better equipped to handle" heavy thinking. I haven't seen a brain scan or anything, but I would guess based on his writing that the sections responsible for anger and sarcasm and "being a big Internet tough guy" have long since overpowered whatever heavy thinking was once possible.