[R] The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Sep 14, 2009.

Tags:
  1. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I wanted to see just how screwed DC United was after its loss this weekend so I dug up my old magic and tragic numbers spreadsheet and plugged in the current standings. Having gone through that effort I then decided to steal some info from patfan1, mash it together with my table and post it all here as has been done sometimes in the past. Let me know if you see any errors.

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/U]
    01  CMB  24  6  11  09  04  42  1.75  53  60  13  25  19
    02  HOU  26  4  11  07  08  40  1.54  46  52  15  17  11
    03  CHI  24  6  10  08  06  38  1.58  48  56  17  21  15
    04  LAG  25  5  09  11  05  38  1.52  46  53  17  18  12
    05  SEA  25  5  09  10  06  37  1.48  44  52  18  17  11
    06  CDC  23  7  11  03  09  36  1.57  47  57  19  22  16
    07  COL  24  6  10  06  08  36  1.50  45  54  19  19  13
    08  DCU  26  4  08  12  06  36  1.38  42  48  19  13  07
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    09  TFC  25  5  09  07  09  34  1.36  41  49  21  14  08
    10  NER  23  7  09  06  08  33  1.43  43  54  22  19  13
    11  RSL  24  6  09  06  09  33  1.38  41  51  22  16  10
    12  KCW  24  6  07  06  11  27  1.13  34  45  28  10  04
    13  FCD  24  6  07  06  11  27  1.13  34  45  28  10  04
    14  SJE  22  8  05  05  12  20  0.91  27  44  35  09  03
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  25  5  04  04  17  16  0.64  19  31  39  -04  -10[/COLOR]
    
    GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG) = PPG x 30 [with a bit of rounding]
    MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3 x GR)
    M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 15th Place MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    
    - Sorted by PTS, then PPG (KCW & FCD are even).
    - PPG and PRJ are really the same number, but to me PRJ is more 
      concrete because it shows how a few fractions of a difference 
      really might translate in the final standings. 
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
    CDC: @SEA, NYR, @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU
    CHI: CMB, TFC, @LAG, @NER, CDC
    CMB: @CHI, LAG, SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER
    COL: @SJE, SJE, @KCW, NER, @FCD, @RSL
    DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW
    FCD: @KCW, RSL, NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA
    HOU: RSL, KCW, LAG, @CDC
    KCW: FCD, COL, @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU
    LAG: TFC, @CMB, CHI, @HOU, SJE
    NER: @NYR, SEA, @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB
    NYR: NER, @CDC, @SJE, @RSL, TFC
    RSL: @HOU, @FCD, NYR, @TFC, COL
    SEA: CDC, @NER, @CMB, @KCW, FCD
    TFC: @LAG, @CHI, SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B]
    
    Things I thought were interesting:

    1. What a fustercluck in the middle of that table!

    2. Believe it or not, if Chivas could get its act together in consistent fashion, they’re the team best positioned to challenge Columbus for the Supporters Shield. Though Chicago is a very close second.

    3. New England and RSL are in a great position to make a serious bid for a playoff spot. This may be a surprise to RSL’s despairing fans.

    4. DC United is pretty screwed. The team’s standing in the 8th spot is really nothing more than having played a couple extra games than a lot of other teams. Of the 7 to 11 teams (the ones really vying for the 7th and 8th spots), DC United has the worst tragic number. Toronto isn’t much better off, but Colorado, New England and RSL have a real advantage.
     
    henryo repped this.
  2. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    I thyink Seattle is more in that group than Colorado is, given the pts-per-game number and the remaining schedule. I'm not saying the Rapids are a lock, but it would be a pretty big stumble if they don't make the playoffs with their remaining games (Only 1 against a team currently in a playoff spot and 4 against teams that are out of the running).
     
  3. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    nice summary.

    Some palyed 26 games while some played 22.
    WTF. Looks so mickey mouse league.
     
  4. Flyer Fan

    Flyer Fan Member+

    Apr 18, 1999
    Columbus, OH
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    In a W-D-L format, I think Chicago's numbers should read 25 GP, 10-9-6.
     
  5. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    I thought San Jose was mathematically eliminated. Actually after being off for two full weeks, I thought the franchise might have been disbanded. Well, here's hoping the abort Colorado's playoff chances. (For the record, I am avidly rooting for the less-supported teams to not make playoffs.)

    New England thankfully, has lost two in a row and now looks at a tough schedule down the road.

    But DCU and their great fan base look like the stomach contents of roadkill. So RSL, its time to step up.
     
  6. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Nice work. Though I'd make one suggestion.

    Don't use PPG to get projected point totals. It doesn't take into account RPPG (road PPG) and HPPG (home PPG). Some teams (like DC) have very home heavy schedules, and a good HPPG. So DC still has a shot if you take care of business at home. Of course, having played all those extra games hurts.

    Take RSL, whom you seem to think are in good shape (false). They only have 2 home games left (win both for 40 points). The rest are on the road (@Hou, @FCD, @TFC) where RSL is 2-2-8 (W-D-L) with a -10 GD. That's why they are despairing, they know they have to:

    1) Win out at home, AND
    2) Win at least one game on the road, maybe more (will 43 points be enough?).

    The 3/0 (3 pt at home, 0 on road) standing are a nice (though not completely accurate) shortcut to see how teams are doing. Basically, its home points dropped + road points gained. We used them in USMNT Hex threads to try to order out the standings when some teams had played more road games than others. It can be useful, and a team finishing at 0 would have 45 points, which may be close to the magic number.
     
  7. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Yeah because that never happens anywhere else. What, MLB has teams on 141 games and 114 games? How bush league! :rolleyes:

    People wanted the regular season to mean more and to avoid International Dates. Well with an uneven number of teams and Superliga and the CCL, this is what you get.
     
  8. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation


    I'm careless about baseball.

    Other football leagues around the world avoid international dates better, and got XCL and other competitions, too. I understand 1 or maybe 2 game difference sometimes, but it's just too much.
     
  9. RerunStubs

    RerunStubs Member

    Dec 8, 2006
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    What makes it "just too much"? That seems pretty arbitrary.

    Moreover, I'm not sure why people always make criticisms as though a single issue exists in a vacuum. There are innumerable tradeoffs.
     
  10. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    It's too much when a fan try to check out the standing, and find out some played 26 games, while some played 22. It doesn't really tell you much.
     
  11. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Thanks for the great info Knave.

    Two reactions:

    1) I don't know why so many people were writing off Chivas as "slumping" earlier in the year when really they just weren't playing.

    2) My Sounders are couldn't be more on the razor's edge. They are going to need another road victory -- perhaps at New England -- or a couple of road draws to really wrap up a spot.
     
  12. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Fixed below. Thanks.
    Well, the PRJ number isn't supposed to represent that -- just a different extrapolation of the PPG number.

    But you're right about the pace number that we were advocating on the Hexagonal thread. :D But I'm not actually convinced they reflect much in MLS. Yes, they give you some interesting information for all the teams, but the truth is the pace numbers suck for virtually all the teams. Compared to the Hex, home draws and away wins are relatively frequent in MLS. Take DCU: does a -14 pace really justify a rosy outlook for their final games? I don't think it does. DCU needs home wins, but the team has drawn almost as many games as it has won at home this year.

    That said (games in hand aside), because Seattle, New England, Colorado and DCU are all on the same pace, the pace number do give credence to this
    Anyway, I've added in the pace numbers below along with a corrected table.

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
    01  CMB  24  6  11  09  04  42  1.75  53  60  13  25  19
    02  HOU  26  4  11  07  08  40  1.54  46  52  15  17  11
    03  CHI  25  5  10  09  06  39  1.56  47  54  16  19  13
    04  LAG  25  5  09  11  05  38  1.52  46  53  17  18  12
    05  SEA  25  5  09  10  06  37  1.48  44  52  18  17  11
    06  CDC  23  7  11  03  09  36  1.57  47  57  19  22  16
    07  COL  24  6  10  06  08  36  1.50  45  54  19  19  13
    08  DCU  26  4  08  12  06  36  1.38  42  48  19  13  07
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    09  TFC  25  5  09  07  09  34  1.36  41  49  21  14  08
    10  NER  23  7  09  06  08  33  1.43  43  54  22  19  13
    11  RSL  24  6  09  06  09  33  1.38  41  51  22  16  10
    12  KCW  24  6  07  06  11  27  1.13  34  45  28  10  04
    13  FCD  24  6  07  06  11  27  1.13  34  45  28  10  04
    14  SJE  22  8  05  05  12  20  0.91  27  44  35  09  03
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  25  5  04  04  17  16  0.64  19  31  39  -04 -10[/COLOR]
    
    GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG) = PPG x 30 [with a bit of rounding]
    MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3 x GR)
    M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 15th Place MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1
    SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
    
    - Sorted by PTS, then PPG (KCW & FCD are even).
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]
    
    [U]     GP  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
    CMB  24  8  4  0  3  5  4  -06
    CDC  23  8  1  2  3  2  7  -09
    CHI  25  4  4  4  6  5  2  -10
    HOU  26  7  4  1  4  3  7  -10
    LAG  25  4  4  4  5  7  1  -11
    NER  23  6  3  3  3  3  5  -14
    COL  24  8  3  2  2  3  6  -14
    SEA  25  6  5  2  3  5  4  -14
    DCU  26  6  5  1  2  7  5  -14
    TFC  25  7  3  3  2  4  6  -17
    RSL  25  7  5  1  2  2  8  -17
    KCW  24  3  3  5  4  3  6  -19
    FDC  24  5  4  3  2  2  8  -21
    SJE  22  5  3  4  0  2  8  -26
    NYR  25  4  3  6  0  1  11 -35
    
    Sorted by PCE, then least GP.[/B]
    
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
    CDC: @SEA, NYR, @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU
    CHI: CMB, TFC, @LAG, @NER, CDC
    CMB: @CHI, LAG, SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER
    COL: @SJE, SJE, @KCW, NER, @FCD, @RSL
    DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW
    FCD: @KCW, RSL, NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA
    HOU: RSL, KCW, LAG, @CDC
    KCW: FCD, COL, @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU
    LAG: TFC, @CMB, CHI, @HOU, SJE
    NER: @NYR, SEA, @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB
    NYR: NER, @CDC, @SJE, @RSL, TFC
    RSL: @HOU, @FCD, NYR, @TFC, COL
    SEA: CDC, @NER, @CMB, @KCW, FCD
    TFC: @LAG, @CHI, SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B]
    
     
  13. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    You trainspotter you.
     
  14. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Code:
    Team		Conf	Points	GP	HR	RR	PP
    Columbus	East	42	24	3	3	53
    Chivas		West	36	23	4	3	48
    Houston		West	40	26	3	1	47
    Chicago		East	39	25	3	2	47
    Los Angeles	West	38	25	3	2	45
    Seattle		West	37	25	2	3	44
    Colorado	West	36	24	2	4	43
    DC		East	36	26	3	1	43
    New England	East	33	23	3	4	43
    Toronto		East	34	25	2	3	40
    RSL		West	34	25	2	3	40
    Dallas		West	27	24	3	3	34
    Kansas City	East	27	24	4	2	34
    San Jose	West	20	22	3	5	26
    New York	East	16	25	2	3	19
    
    HR = Home games remaining
    RR = Road games remaining
    PP = projected points using each teams current home/away PPG splits. So this is a 'true' projection of the points a team will acquire if they maintain exactly the same home/away form.
     
  15. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Now we need to take it to the next level of analyzing the opponents of those home and road games to see what their home/road points are like. :D

    For example Colorado's road schedule (SJ, KC, Dallas, FSL) is probably weaker than Seattle's (New England, Columbus, KC).
     
  16. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    I think disaggregating home and away performance to come up with an ostensibly more accurate projection is in practice dubious. I just ran both side by side. The difference is basically inconsequential -- nothing more really than rounding error. I think it gives you a false sense of accuracy, particularly when the only thing either of those numbers are really good for is giving you a very rough, ballpark guesstimate.

    Code:
    [B][U]     GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE  PPG  HPPG APPG PRJ-T PRJ-H/A
    [/U]CMB  24  42  12  12  8  4  0  3  5  4  -06  1.8  2.3  1.2  52.5  52.5
    HOU  26  40  12  14  7  4  1  4  3  7  -10  1.5  2.1  1.1  46.2  47.3
    CHI  25  39  12  13  4  4  4  6  5  2  -10  1.6  1.3  1.8  46.8  46.5
    LAG  25  38  12  13  4  4  4  5  7  1  -11  1.5  1.3  1.7  45.6  45.4
    SEA  25  37  13  12  6  5  2  3  5  4  -14  1.5  1.8  1.2  44.4  44.0
    CDC  23  36  11  12  8  1  2  3  2  7  -09  1.6  2.3  0.9  47.0  47.8
    COL  24  36  13  11  8  3  2  2  3  6  -14  1.5  2.1  0.8  45.0  43.4
    DCU  26  36  12  14  6  5  1  2  7  5  -14  1.4  1.9  0.9  41.5  42.7
    TFC  25  34  13  12  7  3  3  2  4  6  -17  1.4  1.8  0.8  40.8  40.2
    RSL  25  34  13  12  7  5  1  2  2  8  -17  1.4  2.0  0.7  40.8  40.0
    NER  23  33  12  11  6  3  3  3  3  5  -14  1.4  1.8  1.1  43.0  42.6
    KCW  24  27  11  13  3  3  5  4  3  6  -19  1.1  1.1  1.2  33.8  33.7
    FDC  24  27  12  12  5  4  3  2  2  8  -21  1.1  1.6  0.7  33.8  33.8
    SJE  22  20  12  10  5  3  4  0  2  8  -26  0.9  1.5  0.2  27.3  25.5
    NYR  25  16  13  12  4  3  6  0  1  11  -35 0.6  1.2  0.1  19.2  18.6
    
    Sorted by PTS, then fewest games played.
    HPPG = Home PPG
    APPG = Away PPG
    RHG/RAG = Remaining Home/Away Games
    PRJ-T = 30*PPG
    PRJ-H/A = PTS + (RHG x HPPG) + (RAG x APPG)
    [/B]
     
  17. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Knave, nice work, and thanks for at least taking a shot at my idea. Though I still think RSL are in deep trouble.

    Anyway, the only other thing that I could see that needs a tweak is how the standings are calculated. Shouldn't the standings be listed on points possible when considering magic and tragic numbers? That is what we are trying to calculate, when a team is mathematically in or out. The actual number of points they currently have are relevant only insofar as they help us calculate the maximum points possible.

    Anyway, here's the table on points possible:

    1. Crew = 60. 42 + 18 possible.
    2. Chivas = 57. 36 + 21 possible.
    T3. Fire = 54. 39 + 15 possible.
    T3. Colorado = 54. 36 + 18 possible.
    T3. New England = 54. 33 + 21 possible.
    6. Los Angeles = 53. 38 + 15 possible.
    T7. Houston = 52. 40 + 12 possible.
    T7. Seattle = 52. 37 + 15 possible.
    -----------------------------------
    T9. RSL = 49. 34 + 15 possible.
    T9. TFC = 49. 34 + 15 possible.
    11. DC = 48. 36 + 12 possible.
    ----------------------------------
    T12. FCD = 45. 27 + 18 possible.
    T12. KC = 45. 27 + 18 possible.
    14. SJ = 44. 20 + 24 possible.
    -------------------------------
    15. NY = 31. 16 + 15 possible.

    What this does is, mainly, throw NE into the top 8 where they belong, and now the max number for 9-11 is 49, not 54. So I'd say the magic number for the Crew is 8, not 13. They don't need 55 points to clinch (only four other teams can hit 54 or better), they need 50. At 50, only 7 teams can catch them = clinched.

    Of course, this is a bit simplistic as well (at least on my end), as it doesn't take schedule's into effect (all of the top 11 can't possible MAX out, as they play each other). I didn't have the time, ability, or inclination to run that calculation, but if you really want to, you could.

    However, I think the MN idea is valid.

    And, not to toot my own horn a bit, but last year, I did run a bunch of "clinch" scenarios with tie-breakers and found that MLS actually was wrong when it announced some teams (the Crew) had clinched. Though I can't remember if it was playoffs or SS. Now, did it matter? No, as the possibilities were obviously huge longshots. But it just underscores how complex this is. MLS couldn't even get their own rules right (but maybe that's just because they are in the habit of making them up).
     
  18. Aaron d

    Aaron d Member+

    May 15, 2005
    Wooster
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Except when they played 5 straight league games without a win. Oh and the 4 non league games they played during that stretch and managed one draw and 3 losses.

    /facts

    Chivas are a streaky team this year. We won't know if they will challenge for the shield until we see which streak they will finish with. They haven't scored their last 2 matches and lost both and now go on the road to Seattle. It isn't looking like a good streak for the finish.
     
  19. RerunStubs

    RerunStubs Member

    Dec 8, 2006
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    They beat New England 2-0 on Sunday. Of course, that may just prove your larger point.
     
  20. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Rerun pointed out you forgot the road win this weekend.

    I was only considering MLS games only in my equation since we are talking MLS playoffs. And sure you can pick out that five games and pretend they didn't win the one before the streak and two after it. Eight games at 3-5 looks a lot better than five at 0-5. Meanwhile, not once have they ever strayed out of real contention for a playoff spot.

    I guess the key to my point was the "writing off" part. Many people I read were writing them off as a non-factor -- basically done for the year, because of the section of the season you mentioned. But I think you have to look at the entire record, and the games in hand, and assume that they are actually in good shape to make the playoffs.
     
  21. IKickAndIm50

    IKickAndIm50 Member

    Apr 13, 2009
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    I think one of the things to look at is a team's total wins vs other teams near it in the standings.... and also goal differential vs nearby teams... and then maybe goals allowed too...

    all those point to chivas usa getting in

    seattle sounders fans are freaking out why? they have 37??? you only need 40 or *maybe* 41 to clinch guys... seriously calm down youre fine

    anyone with 5 or more games left who is at like 36 or higher is probably fine
     
  22. Aaron d

    Aaron d Member+

    May 15, 2005
    Wooster
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    I did forget the weekend win. But I don't think many people are writing them off for the playoffs, but had written them off from the SS. They started out on fire this year, but if you had followed MLS before Seattle, you would know almost every year one team starts out on fire and rarely does that team win the SS. Instead that team slides in on one of the lower seeded playoff spots. Looking at historical trends and Chivas' inconsistent play keeps people from thinking they will challenge for the shield at the end of the year.
     
  23. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Actually I have followed MLS for several years and was a loyal Direct Kick subscriber before there was an MLS team in Seattle.

    But you know, just jump to any conclusion that fits your stereotype. :rolleyes:
     
  24. Main Man

    Main Man Member

    Jul 22, 2009
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    You're clearly a liar.
     
  25. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

    Back on topic: Has anyone on BS ever done a statistical analysis of the accuracy of points-per-game from previous games as a predictor of future results?

    Obviously things like the streaks Aaron brought up can completely change the points-per-game numbers throughout the season. If you took Chivas' PPG after the first 10 games it would be much different than the five-game stretch Aaron mentioned.

    I guess what I'm asking, is are there numbers compiled from previous years that show us an average variance in points per game from a point like this (5/6ths) to the end of the season? Is there a way to predict how close, based on enough numbers to be meaningful, that teams will end up to the points-per-game they currently hold? Is there any way to accurately predict a deviance?
     

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