First off, congratulations to all of you who had under 1.5 goals scored combined between Canada, Honduras and Cuba in their first two games. That's 12 halves of soccer with one goal...or 1,080 minutes + injury time! Your reward should be that you don't have to see any of these teams play in the Hex but unfortunately one of them will back their way in. Group A USA 4 Jamaica 4 Guatemala 1 Antigua 1 The US can't be happy with their on-field performance in the first two games but suffice it to say we are right on track to qualify for the Hex. A win in Guatemala would have sealed the deal but with an easy six points in our last two games all we need are a couple points from the two games against Jamaica to feel safe. Jamaica started off well with a win over Guatemala but booted two points against Antigua. They should still feel relatively good but a nightmare scenario sees them losing the next two games to the US while Guatemala picks up 6 points against Antigua. That would leave Jamaica three points behind with two games to play, including a road game at Guatemala. However, this turn of events is highly unlikely due to the fact that... ...Guatemala has done nothing to disprove the idea that they are a fairly poor team that will jump up and grab a point here or there at home but can't accumulate enough outright wins to garner the necessary points to make it to the Hex (let alone the World Cup). Guatemala needed to beat the US to have a chance to go through and they missed their opportunity. The upcoming games against Antigua look ripe for 6 points but inevitably Los Chapines will stumble, quite possibly in Antigua. Even if they win both they will be sitting on 7 points with the final two games against Jamaica and the US requiring at least 1 win. 3 wins in 4 games...not from this team Antigua & Barbuda have been the pleasant surprise of this round. They put a 2nd half scare into the U.S. and held Jamaica to a scoreless draw. A&B won't sniff the Hex but they will very likely grab a few more points along the way. Group B Mexico 6 Costa Rica 4 El Salvador 1 Guyana 0 Mexico are in...next Costa Rica blew a two goal lead at home to El Salvador which cost them 2 points. They responded by thumping Guyana on the road...a game that could have been tricky with a back-to-back with Mexico looming. The Ticos have struggled mightily with Mexico both home and away and they'd like to get at least 1 point out of those two games. They look forward to having Bryan Ruiz back in the lineup to add offensive punch. Hypothetically, if they come through that stretch with a draw and a loss they'll be sitting on 5 points going into a crucial road game at El Salvador. This game could well decide the group as... El Salvador should be sitting on 7 points if they take care of business against Guyana. Unlike Guatemala, El Salvador have some quality to them and they'll be kicking themselves for giving up a late winner to Mexico in San Salvador. It's only a point but in their battle with Costa Rica it could mean the difference between advancing and going home. Guyana, while not ranked the lowest out of the 12 teams, look to battle it out with Cuba for the worst team in any group. They looked dangerous in the second half on the road in Mexico but maybe showed their true colors in getting pounded at home by Costa Rica Group C Panama 6 Canada 4 Honduras 1 Cuba 0 I think it's safe to say you can go ahead and put Panama's name in blood as one of the six teams in the Hex. While they struggled to break down Cuba and nearly gave up a game tying goal in the waning moments, their 2-0 road win (should've been 3-0 if they hadn't missed a late PK) at Honduras made a powerful statement against the perceived group favorite. With the other contenders drawing on Tuesday, Panama will have no problem taking 4 points from the next 4 games and qualifying with room to spare. Meanwhile, Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum (Canada and Honduras) have scored 1 goal in 8 halves of soccer. After their 1-0 win away to Cuba last Friday combined with Honduras's home loss to Panama, the Canucks could secure their place in the Hex with two home wins out of three home games. Well, in fine Canadian soccer fashion they booted the first opportunity by drawing Honduras and now go into a back-to back with Panama feeling like they must win the home game to stay in the race. This is because... Honduras should be wiping the floor with Cuba. However, it may not be that simple as Honduras has yet to score a goal and Cuba has yielded only 1 in each game. Honduras should feel as though they need maximum points from these two games as they finish on the road in Panama and home to Canada. The second team to qualify out of this group will likely be the one that trips on themselves the least. Cuba will try to play the role of spoiler. They can feel good that they weren't blown out in either of their first two games. At the same time, they'll be disappointed that they didn't at least get level with Canada playing the final 30 minutes up a man or get a draw against Panama with a late near-miss. Qualifiers to the Hex: USA, Jamaica, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras Hex Results: Mexico USA Panama Costa Rica Jamaica Honduras Costa Rica goes to the playoff against shock Oceania winner, Tahiti. The Tahitians, fresh off their "-23" goal differential beat-down at the Confederations Cup, harness the power of the Tehau family (Lorenzo, Teaonui, Alvin and Jonathan) and score a 94th minute winner in the second leg of the playoff. FIFA announce at their next annual conference that they have reduced CONCACAF's World Cup allocation from 3.5 to 2.5, with Qatar being the permanent recipient of the now vacated spot.
I assure you, those last two games this round will not be an "easy" six points (regardless of if the USA actually needs to get that many points from those October games). The next task (the A/H versus Jamaica in September) is of incredible importance, and the USA will cross that October bridge when they come to it. But there will be no (guaranteed) "easy results" in any WCQ matches that the US plays. Yes, overall, a set of "normal" (or "expected") results (win at home, tie on the road) will get the job done and progress the US to the Hex, but I think it is foolish to assume that "all we need are a couple points from the two games against Jamaica" because the last two games are "an easy six points." Slipping up against Jamaica (getting less than 4 points) could really complicate this group for the US. (Of course that somewhat depends on the results Guatemala earns H/A versus Antigua and Barbuda.) Additionally this thread needs the year "2012" and/or the phrase "Semifinal Round" added to the title, as (hopefully or realistically) the USA is not close to 1/3 of the way done with the qualifying process this cycle.
Group A has played very close to norm so far. Using the "Win at home, draw on the road" formula for success, USA and Jamaica are both on pace and Guatemala and Antigua at -3. That's what I'd expect from this group. Remember that scheduling counts a lot- we play two road matches in the first half (and both are the toughest), so 5 points after the next match is our expected outcome. Don't jump off the bridge if we only draw at Jamaica- doing so will actually increase our lead in the table, as it steals 2 expected points from them.
I agree that the U.S. should have its sights set on more than two points against Jamaica but in a highly conservative scenario I was pointing out that we could take two draws from those games and still go into the last two games in fine shape. If we really need wins against Antigua on the road and Guatemala at home I think we could handle that. Nothing is guaranteed we we all know Guate will park the bus but I still think we come out of those games with 6 points. That being said, I don't think we'll need to as we'll take care of business against Jamaica. I'm guessing you saw the game on Tuesday and as disappointed as I was in the U.S., I was thoroughly unimpressed with Guatemala. Not one of their better teams and I don't see them getting close to enough points to even challenge Jamaica. Yes, it does but I'm not sure if I can go back and revise that...I think the mods would have to do that.
If the US does what it needs to do (win at home, draw on the road at a minimum) throughout this round, the real battle of interest in this group (as in most groups with a "clear" front runner, be that Mexico or Panama) will be the battle for the 2nd place. As you wrote in your initial post of another group... ... that very likely could apply to this group, and its possible that all/each of the "unimpressive" Guatemala, Jamaica and Antigua & Barbuda could be battling to trip themselves the least and stumble through to the Hex. While the US is battling Jamaica in Sept, it will be very interesting to see if A&B can steal some points (or a whole bunch) against what looks to be a rather susceptible Guatemala team.
Guatemala or Jamaica will probably come down to their game against each other down in Guatemala. Guate's probably hoping the US qualifies prior to the last round of the Hex. That game is Guate at the US, and we could play a "B" team if we're already qualified. They could nick a point there................ The most interesting group battle for me is Canada or Honduras in Group C. Canada has 4 points, but has looked underwhelming. Their inability to beat a beatable Honduras team at home may come back to bite them in the ass.
agree with a lot of this. all the groups (especially or likely the "battles for 2nd") are (or have the potential to be) interesting. if any of the teams take more than a point off of the (eventual) group winner, then they'll have a good advantage in the "battle or minimized-stumble" for 2nd place. But yes, the final standing of "Guatemala or Jamaica will probably come down to their game against each other down in Guatemala." although, there certainly are possibilities for some "unexpected/weird" results in Sept that could put the group on a strange balance heading into Oct.
What makes September so very, very strange is the five-day home & away. Maybe I can't think back long enough, but have we ever played a serious team (of the level of Jamaica or better) in such a format? I'm honestly glad that we have the road game first, because there's going to be a lot of immediate familiarity going into that second match. If I were the coach, I'd have a few changes to the starting XI pre-planned for the two matches (not just as needed to cover for potential card accumulation by Edu and Johnson).
match day 3 jam 1 usa 1 ab 0 guat 1 usa 5 jam 5 guat 4 ab 1 matchday 4 usa 2 jam 0 ab 0 quat 3 usa 8 jam 5 guat 7 ab 0 matchday 5 ab 0 usa 2 guat 2 jam 0 usa 11 guat 10 jam 5 ab 1 so with ab going to jam a win for jam leaves them with 8 and usa can test some guys hosting guat, as they will too having advanced and nothing to gain and espn will stilll bitch is usa doesn't win 4-0 but jam can mess this all up at guat by getting a drwae or winning therr
WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 1-0-3 scenario: Match day 3: -USA/Jamaica draw -Guatemala win USA: 5 JAM: 5 GUAT: 5 AB:1 Matchday 4: -USA/Jamaica draw -Guatemala win GUAT: 8 USA: 6 JAM: 6 AB: 1 Matchday 5 -USA win -Anything that is not a draw in Jamaica v. Guatemala GUAT: 11 w/ win, 9 w/ draw USA: 9 JAM: 9 w/ win, 7 w/ draw Matchday 6 -Jamaica win -USA draw v. Guatemala USA: 10 GUAT: either 10 or 12 JAM: either 8 or 12 =============== 1-1-2 scenario: Match day 3: -USA/Jamaica draw -Guatemala win USA: 5 JAM: 5 GUAT: 5 AB:1 Matchday 4: -USA/Jamaica draw -Guatemala win GUAT: 8 USA: 6 JAM: 6 AB: 1 Matchday 5 -USA win -Anything that is not a draw in Jamaica v. Guatemala GUAT: 11 w/ win, 9 w/ draw, 8 w/ loss USA: 9 JAM: 9 w/ win, 7 w/ draw, 6 w/ loss Matchday 6 -Jamaica win -USA loss v. Guatemala USA: 9 GUAT: either 11, 12 or 14 JAM: either 9, 10 or 12 AFTER MATCHDAY 5: It could be... GUAT: 11 USA: 9 JAM: 6 GUAT: 9 USA: 9 JAM: 7 USA: 9 JAM: 9 GUAT: 8 The thrid scenario is the most dangerous. That would leave us with a MUST-NOT-LOSE game v.s Guatemala. If we can;t come up with a win v.s Jamaica in the first two game, Matchday 5 is where it all hinges. We can still make it through going 1-1-2, but it would all depend . But if we lose more than 1 game we are done. I know there is more scenarios, but bascially I am assuming A/B doesnt win one game.
This group has one clearly strong team (USA), one clearly weak (Antigua) and two middling. That creates some danger as it can effectively become a three team group if everyone takes full points from Antigua. That leaves 4 games, instead of 6, to decide who moves on and the fewer games the more likely that random error creeps into the equation. On this score, however, Jamaica has slipped up by failing to win in Antigua.
How can you say Antigua are "clearly weak" when they lost 1-3 on the road to the group favorite and tied Jamaica at home? I think they are the worst team in our group, but they are a somewhat dangerous team, have already won a point and appear to be a good bet to win more points.
Population 88,000. Mad props to Antigua so far, but they are punching well above their weight right now.
And continuing to punch well above their weight for but 3 or 4 more games honestly could get them a claim to the 2nd spot from this group (especially if the others currently ahead of them do not do much to improve their own performances). Every single US fan should also be a huge fan of A&B right now, because any points they can take off of Jamaica and Guatemala will likely make the USA's semifinal round task more comfortable (and perhaps a bit easier).
I should also add that the bulk of their team plays in USL2. That's the 3rd division of US soccer. I think the Charlotte Eagles (semi-pro) play in USL2.
We got lucky with our qualifying group. Because CONCACAF doesn't seed into 4 pots, Panama and El Salvador are in the same pot as A+B and Guyana. Also, Cuba somehow got into pot 2. We could have had this group: US Costa Rica Panama El Salvador (group of death) or this group: US Cuba Guyana A+B (group of 18 points) Would have been nice to have Cuba in our group as the other seed but overall our group is probably the weakest 2-4 (considering how sloppy Jamaica has looked).
Here's all the possible scenarios going forward: 6 Points From Jamaica: (Worst Case) US 10 Guatemala 7 Jamaica 4 A+B 1 - Through with 1 point in the last 2 games - Only out with 2 losses and Jamaica beating Guatemala (and A+B) AND both Jamaica and Guatemala pipping us on GD - If A+B takes any points from Guatemala we are through 4 points from Jamaica: (Worst Case) US 8 Guatemala 7 Jamaica 5 A+B 1 - Through with 1 win in the last 2 games - Through with two draws (Jamaica plays Guatemala, so it is impossible for both to get to 10 points if Guatemala draws with us) - Through with draw to A+B and a Jamaica loss - Through with draw to Guatemala and a Jamaica win over Guatemala - Out with draw to A+B OR Guatemala if Guatemala beats US and Jamaica wins both (we can also go out tied on 9 points in several scenarios) - Through on 8 points if Jamaica does not win (also possible to go through on GD with 1 Jamaica win) (A+B take pts from Guatemala) US 8 Jamaica 5 Guatemala 5 A+B 2 - Through with draw to Guatemala - Other scenarios improve 3 points from Jamaica: (Worst Case) US 7 Jamaica 7 Guatemala 7 A+B 1 - Through with 2 wins - Through with 4 points (Guatemala and Jamaica cannot both get to 11 if we at least draw Guatemala) - Through with 1 win UNLESS: Guatemala beats US, Jamaica beats A+B, Guatemala and Jamaica draw OR: We tie on 10 and are pipped on GD - Through with a draw and Guatemala loss or a draw and 2 Jamaica losses (also can go through/out tied on 8 in some scenarios) (A+B take pts from Guatemala) US 7 Jamaica 7 Guatemala 5 A+B 2 - With a win over A+B we are through unless Jamaica beats A+B, Guatemala beats both, and Jamaica pips us on GD 2 points from Jamaica: (Worst Case) Guatemala 7 US 6 Jamaica 6 A+B 1 - Through with 2 wins - Through with 4 points (if we at least draw Guatemala, both Guatemala and Jamaica cannot reach 10 points) - Through with 1 win in many scenarios - Through with 2 draws in several scenarios - Theoretically possible to go through with 1 draw or even no points - if A+B take points from Guatemala it becomes easier to go through with 2-3 points. 1 point from Jamaica: (Worst Case) Jamaica 8 Guatemala 7 US 5 A+B 1 - Through with 2 wins - Through with 4 points unless we draw with Guatemala, - There are a few 1 win scenarios where we go through (most obviously, beat Guatemala, and Jamaica beats them as well) (A+B take points) Jamaica 8 US 5 Guatemala 5 A+B 2 - Through with 4 points unless Guatemala beats Jamaica and pips us on GD - Likely though on GD with a win over Guatemala No points from Jamaica: Jamaica 10 Guatemala 7 US 4 A+B 1 - Through with 2 wins UNLESS Guatemala beats Jamaica, Jamaica beats A+B, and we are pipped by Guatemala on GD - Possible to go through with 4 points - If A+B takes points from Guatemala we are clean through on 2 wins, it's easier to go through on 4 points, and it is possible to go through with just a win over Guatemala Short Version: We are always through on 11 points (1 draw, 2 wins out of 4 games) We are almost always through on 10 points (2 wins of 4) - there's only one spot where Jamaica and Guatemala can both get to 11 while we get to 10 (we can also go out on goal difference at 10) We are have ways of going through on 9 or 8 points with help All the really nasty scenarios (like going out on 12 points on GD) are gone and if A+B also takes points off of Guatemala we only have one way of going out with 10 points.
Also, something else in our favor: On Matchday 5 Jamaica and Guatemala play a game that is likely a must-win for one or the other while we play A+B (who will likely be eliminated at this point). Guatemala will then have to play us coming off of this game, so if (god forbid) we need a result from the last matchday, this is another advantage.
I could tell that without doing all the scenarios because if we finish with exactly 11 points, the group will finish with at least 3 draws (2 have happened already) and therefore at most 33 points (the total points = 36 - the number of draws). The at most 33 points can't be distributed 11-11-11-0 because Antigua and Barbuda already has 1, so if we have 11 points the third place team will have no more than 10.
AB gets hurtbas the group goes, and cards force them to use other players i still think USA drawing JAM twice is NOT likely i think the 9/7 draw is the most probable outcome and 9/11 you really think usa will NOT win on 9/11 i think when JAM visits GUAT, GUAT will win
Nice OP, though, shockingly, we do disagree a bit. Group A. I think the USA is still looking good, but a failure to win jamaica will make things interesting. Guatemala clearly has the edge for the 2nd spot right now. Jamaica blew 2 points against A&B at home, and Guatemala will likely have a 3 point lead over Jamaica going into the last 2 games, with a game at home against the Reggae Boys to boot. Looks like Jamaica are gong to have to win @Guatemala to get through, or hope A&B does them a huge favor AND they get a result against the US, which I don't think is likely. Group B. Getting a point @CR was huge for El Salvador. And they showed well against Mexico as well. I think everyone beats Guyana handily. So then it comes down to the CR el Salvador match, unless CR can get something out of their Mexico games. GD could be huge here. Still, CR in better shape than Jamaica, because they didn't drop points at home to the minnows, and El Salvador didn't get points against the top dog. Group C. Panama look clear favorites to go on, and both Honduras and Canada are battling for 2nd. I like Honduras here, as they got a road point against the Canucks. Plus, if Panama beats Canada twice, they may already be in for the game Panama, and Honduras has Canada at home to close it. My picks at the beginning were: USA, Jamaica, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras. My picks after round 1 are: USA, Guatemala, Mexico, El Salvador, Panama, Honduras.